Horn probably the pick

[Gaede]

I'm hoping for Surtain and expecting Horn.

I'm the opposite.

 

[SportsGuru80]

Some nuggets

Horn : According to Sports Info Solutions, he ranks third in the draft class with 1.5 yards allowed per man-coverage snap, fifth with 1.3 receptions allowed per game and ninth with 18.6 yards allowed per game. He gave up a 31 percent catch rate and missed three tackles (18 percent). He played frequently in the slot (34 percent).


Surtain : In three seasons, Surtain started 38 games and intercepted four passes and added four forced fumbles. In 2020, he had one interception and 13 passes defensed to be a unanimous first-team All-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year. According to Sports Info Solutions, Surtain allowed a 40 percent catch rate and gave up two touchdowns in 2020. Pro Football Focus said Surtain played 662 snaps of press coverage the last two seasons, almost 200 more than any other prospect. His press-man rate of 59 percent was by far the most in the draft class, per SIS. According to SIS, he ranks 10th in the draft class with 19.3 yards allowed per game. He missed three tackles (8 percent).

Look at the studs Surtain played with compared to Horn as well....

 

[beware_d-ware]

Stats always need context, and they don't always measure CBs well either.

I will trot out Surtain's 0 penalties on 900 snaps stat until the sun explodes because it is A. ridiculous and B. almost entirely down to individual skill. But if we start breaking out yards allowed, completions allowed, etc, then the enormous gulf between Alabama and South Carolina's defensive situations needs to be factored in. If we start talking things like interceptions or TDs allowed, then we are now working with the law of small numbers, eg noisy data.

 

[fansince68]

Unless someone unexpected drops or we trade back thinking we’re picking Horn at 10. Think they want someone with attitude and better athlete than Surtain. Regardless I hope they trade 44 and a 3rd round pick to get back in late 1st early second to get another solid player that has dropped - ideally safety/lb or dt. Then with other 3rd I’m picking speed wr to play slot and be punt/kickoff man or solid ol guy.

I like your plan