How accurate is Mel Kiper?

[LittleBoyBlue]

I know its alot of guessing.. I am guessing... educated guessing(it is his area of expertise)

so how has he faired in the past? anyone know? or is he just a talking windbag?

 

[TheHustler]

He's not.

 

[SpursFanFoLife]

He claims to be about 75-80% right. He's usually right predicting which round a player will go but most of his picks are off. Some are way off.

 

[Hostile]

He claims to be about 75-80% right. He's usually right predicting which round a player will go but most of his picks are off. Some are way off.

He doesn't really do Mock Drafts though. He really just projects value.

He's not bad for overall value. Needs more work on team's needs and focuses though. Stays too loyal to his value board.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

He doesn't really do Mock Drafts though. He really just projects value.

He's not bad for overall value. Needs more work on team's needs and focuses though. Stays too loyal to his value board.

On ESPN, just now, they said "Mel Kiper's updated Mock Draft" coming up

 

[conner01]

He's not.

actually he is fairly accurate in the top 100. 78.3% of his top 100 go in the top 100.thats the 3rd best over the last 3 yrs.his mock drafts where 44.3 accuracy the last 3 yrs. just to compare the most accurate was nfldarftcountdown and they had 47.69, so he ain't bad at it. gooslin is one of the best out there at mocks but he waits to the very end and thats about all he's good for

 

[RCowboyFan]

He doesn't really do Mock Drafts though. He really just projects value.

He's not bad for overall value. Needs more work on team's needs and focuses though. Stays too loyal to his value board.

Agree, he is not as bad at projecting which round a player will go most likely. But team is barely 50% accurate i would say.

Rick Gossilini is best in business as far as predicting where the player will most likely go. Unfortunately, Rick is only good during draft time. Rest of the year, he really doesn't have anything close to that accuracy with team predictions etc.

 

[Hostile]

On ESPN, just now, they said "Mel Kiper's updated Mock Draft" coming up

Not saying he never does Mocks. It isn't his focus.

 

[theogt]

Round Accuracy - ~80%

Team Accuracy - ~30%

http://www.slate.com/id/104163/

 

[Longboysfan]

Not very accurate.
He throw's so much information up and names and trades and.....
He can say he was right X% of the time. When it comes to the final product.
Let's say he is less than reliable. :laugh2:

 

[speedkilz88]

He's one of the best, if not the best, at evaluating the players value and the general where-abouts they should go. He is not and doesn't portray himself as the guy who will predict who goes where in the first round in a mock draft. The best at predicting the top 100 is Rick Gosselin, but only going by the one out on the night before the draft and its not really his opinions but based on all the information he has gotten from scouts over the last couple of months. Its the one thing Gosselin does well at.

 

[Alexander]

actually he is fairly accurate in the top 100. 78.3% of his top 100 go in the top 100.thats the 3rd best over the last 3 yrs.his mock drafts where 44.3 accuracy the last 3 yrs. just to compare the most accurate was nfldarftcountdown and they had 47.69, so he ain't bad at it

If you want to know value, he is one of the best. But that is in a vague sense. A first rounder is a first rounder. Not a high, middle or low. By the end of the first day, his board is pretty much depleted.

But he is not very good at projecting teams and players. As Hostile said, he is very loyal to his board and if he projects a player in the first, he will force it on a team that really doesn't have a chance of taking the player.

If you want a mock draft person who hits teams and players/slots, read Gosselin the week before the draft. Nobody is better because he actually gets tips from the teams themselves.

 

[lurkercowboy]

He is pretty good. Of course, he has a stylist to help him.

Oh, you're asking about predicting the draft, not combing his hair. Sorry.

 

[Khartun]

Here is a link for the past couple of years of top 100 picks.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Last year Kiper got into a heated discussion with Merrill Hoge over a certain player.

Kiper thought he was the best player in the 2005 draft or certainly near the top.

OTOH, Hoge thought he wasn't worth a first round pick to spend on and instead *should* be picked in the 2nd or even perhaps the 3rd round due to his inability to gain seperation on opposing defenders.

That player you ask?

WR Mike Williams.

A couple of nights ago I watched a draft special on ESPN (which was really mediocre at best) and Kiper made a bunch of snide remarks to Hoge about his assessments of Matt Leinart.

So even when Kiper is proven dead wrong, he still cannot believe that another analyst would have the audacity to challenge him.

Rich..........

 

[theogt]

Here is a link for the past couple of years of top 100 picks.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml

Wow. Great link.

 

[Hostile]

If you want to know value, he is one of the best. But that is in a vague sense. A first rounder is a first rounder. Not a high, middle or low. By the end of the first day, his board is pretty much depleted.

But he is not very good at projecting teams and players. As Hostile said, he is very loyal to his board and if he projects a player in the first, he will force it on a team that really doesn't have a chance of taking the player.

If you want a mock draft person who hits teams and players/slots, read Gosselin the week before the draft. Nobody is better because he actually gets tips from the teams themselves.

That's exactly what I mean by loyal to his value board.

If a player he has ranked highly is still on his board past where his projected value is he starts talking about him to every team on the clock as a good fit. I think he really just wants him off the board because it screws up his percentages.

 

[Alexander]

That's exactly what I mean by loyal to his value board.

If a player he has ranked highly is still on his board past where his projected value is he starts talking about him to every team on the clock as a good fit. I think he really just wants him off the board because it screws up his percentages.

That's is exactly why I don't pay a bit of attention to his mocks.

Scott Wright has a very nice site and does a better job leading up to the drat if you don't like waiting on Gosselin to just tell you what he heard.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

He is pretty good. Of course, he has a stylist to help him.

Oh, you're asking about predicting the draft, not combing his hair. Sorry.

He looks like the inspiration to the Bobble Head concept.
:laugh2:
Does he get royalties?

 

[RealCowboyfan]

Im going on a lem to say "Somewhat" accurate.. like 47.3% accurate....