How accurate is Mel Kiper?

[dbair1967]

I know its alot of guessing.. I am guessing... educated guessing(it is his area of expertise)

so how has he faired in the past? anyone know? or is he just a talking windbag?

he isnt very accurate at all...

David

 

[theogt]

he isnt very accurate at all...

David

Did you not click on the links shown in this thread? He's pretty accurate. Perhaps not the most accurate but he's certainly in the upper echelon of draft experts.

 

[BigDFan5]

Last year Kiper got into a heated discussion with Merrill Hoge over a certain player.

Kiper thought he was the best player in the 2005 draft or certainly near the top.

OTOH, Hoge thought he wasn't worth a first round pick to spend on and instead *should* be picked in the 2nd or even perhaps the 3rd round due to his inability to gain seperation on opposing defenders.

That player you ask?

WR Mike Williams.

A couple of nights ago I watched a draft special on ESPN (which was really mediocre at best) and Kiper made a bunch of snide remarks to Hoge about his assessments of Matt Leinart.

So even when Kiper is proven dead wrong, he still cannot believe that another analyst would have the audacity to challenge him.

Rich..........

and if Mike Williams turns into a perinnial pro bowler in a couple years was Kiper still wrong?

Nobody should be judging Williams or any other rookie from last year for a few more years

 

[Funxva]

I'd say Kiper is about as accurate as Jose Cortez kicking fieldgoals.

 

[dbair1967]

Did you not click on the links shown in this thread? He's pretty accurate. Perhaps not the most accurate but he's certainly in the upper echelon of draft experts.

there's more to accuracy than just stacking up top-100's (which by the way, he isnt all that great on either...he ranks 3rd, but just barely ahead of a pack of others, Gosselin ranks WELL head of him)...until last yr I got Kiper's draft guide for about ten years and alot of times his comments about a player werent all that accurate either...he tends to fall in love with certain players and in his eyes those players can do no wrong, or when somebody differs with his opinion on those certain guys he gets defensive and acts like a little of a turd

he is ok and he has made himself a great gig with ESPN, but his draft stuff if you really study it isnt all that great

David

 

[theogt]

there's more to accuracy than just stacking up top-100's (which by the way, he isnt all that great on either...he ranks 3rd, but just barely ahead of a pack of others, Gosselin ranks WELL head of him)...until last yr I got Kiper's draft guide for about ten years and alot of times his comments about a player werent all that accurate either...he tends to fall in love with certain players and in his eyes those players can do no wrong, or when somebody differs with his opinion on those certain guys he gets defensive and acts like a little of a turd

he is ok and he has made himself a great gig with ESPN, but his draft stuff if you really study it isnt all that great

David

You said, "He isn't very accurate at all..." Accuracy is of course a relative term. If he consistently ranks within the top five, as the link shows he does, then I would consider him very accurate. Is he the best? No, of course not. Is there a significant difference between the #1 spot and Kiper? No, of course not. Whether he falls in love with players or not has nothing to do with his accuracy. I would agree with you in that he is overrated (there was an entire thread on this), BBBUUUUTTT, your statement that he "isn't very accurate at all" is just plain...well....I'll get back to you when I think of a politically correct description.

 

[Joe71]

Last year Kiper got into a heated discussion with Merrill Hoge over a certain player.

Kiper thought he was the best player in the 2005 draft or certainly near the top.

OTOH, Hoge thought he wasn't worth a first round pick to spend on and instead *should* be picked in the 2nd or even perhaps the 3rd round due to his inability to gain seperation on opposing defenders.

That player you ask?

WR Mike Williams.

A couple of nights ago I watched a draft special on ESPN (which was really mediocre at best) and Kiper made a bunch of snide remarks to Hoge about his assessments of Matt Leinart.

So even when Kiper is proven dead wrong, he still cannot believe that another analyst would have the audacity to challenge him.

Rich..........

I saw this kinda funny.I got the feeling Merrill wanted to tell him ,have you ever played in the NFL?:laugh2:

 

[Chief]

To be fair, there have been times when I wondered if Merrill Hoge was even sane.

And playing in the NFL isn't a prerequisite for scouting football or compiling player lists, etc.

Joel Buchsbaum wasn't exactly Deacon Jones.

 

[Hostile]

To be fair, there have been times when I wondered if Merrill Hoge was even sane.

And playing in the NFL isn't a prerequisite for scouting football or compiling player lists, etc.

Joel Buchsbaum wasn't exactly Deacon Jones.

I personally do not think all of Merrill's synapses fire.

 

[JPM]

I personally do not think all of Merrill's synapses fire.

One too many shots to the head will do that. I can't listen to him, I have to change the channel, he's almost as bad as Skip Bayless (shudders).

 

[Chuck 54]

All I know is that when you want to know everything you can find out about a guy Dallas drafted or signed as undrafted FA, his REPORT is great to have.

I also know that we went quite a few years where we'd have been better off had he been selecting for us instead of JJ....of course, that's probably true for all of us on this board too.

Kiper is at the top of his game, both on TV and selling his reports...so to say he is a bum or knows nothing is petty. But no one, and I mean no one, can do a mock draft months before the draft and have any accuracy...those guys in the NFL do some pretty crazy things on draft day.

 

[Chief]

All I know is that when you want to know everything you can find out about a guy Dallas drafted or signed as undrafted FA, his REPORT is great to have.

I also know that we went quite a few years where we'd have been better off had he been selecting for us instead of JJ....of course, that's probably true for all of us on this board too.

Kiper is at the top of his game, both on TV and selling his reports...so to say he is a bum or knows nothing is petty. But no one, and I mean no one, can do a mock draft months before the draft and have any accuracy...those guys in the NFL do some pretty crazy things on draft day.

Well said.

 

[dwmyers]

It's really this simple. The draft is a crap shoot and the least accurate part of it is value analysis. It's easy to get it wrong by whole rounds (else Tom Brady would have been a first round choice). Kiper is as good as any of the majors in that and he's entertaining to boot. The people who worry about better and best are arguing about a system in which first rounders fail half the time and it doesn't get better in the later rounds..

David.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Thanks. I have that one bookmarked. I don't associate names with sites very well. I need to do my homework on who the main gurus are per site.

go to the forum section of NFLDraftCountdown, Scott makes an appearance every now and then to help answer member's questions

 

[Chief]

It's really this simple. The draft is a crap shoot and the least accurate part of it is value analysis. It's easy to get it wrong by whole rounds (else Tom Brady would have been a first round choice). Kiper is as good as any of the majors in that and he's entertaining to boot. The people who worry about better and best are arguing about a system in which first rounders fail half the time and it doesn't get better in the later rounds..

David.

Another good post.

 

[Gibbs II]

It's really this simple. The draft is a crap shoot and the least accurate part of it is value analysis. It's easy to get it wrong by whole rounds (else Tom Brady would have been a first round choice). Kiper is as good as any of the majors in that and he's entertaining to boot. The people who worry about better and best are arguing about a system in which first rounders fail half the time and it doesn't get better in the later rounds..

David.

Yea it just seems ridiculous to try to figure this stuff out. First of all, you have to know college players and their skills and why they were good ect. Then you have to have a deep knowledge of the NFL and figure who needs why and for what reasons.

 

[theogt]

Yea it just seems ridiculous to try to figure this stuff out. First of all, you have to know college players and their skills and why they were good ect. Then you have to have a deep knowledge of the NFL and figure who needs why and for what reasons.

Agreed. This is where I think most mocks fail. It seemed pretty clear that Jerry wasn't going to drop first round money on the FS position but Kiper and a few others kept insisting that we were going to draft Allen. He should probably get an associate to really study teams' needs and stick to evaluating talent.