You never know how things will play out except they'll be surprising, but thinking it through a little bit:
If the Eagles sweep us, we're not winning the division. Just not gonna happen.
If we sweep them, then we have a free loss to play with the rest of the way and have a really good chance at the division.
If we split, we probably need tiebreakers to win the division, and that's a bit of a problem.
The first tiebreaker is division record: assume we both sweep the Giants and Commanders.
The third tiebreaker is conference record: we have two conference losses, they have none. I don't think we win this tiebreaker: if we get in position to win it, we probably passed them on overall record anyway.
That leaves the second tiebreaker, common opponents. The Jets put us up one, but the Eagles are probably going to beat the Cardinals, so back to even. They have BUF-SEA-SF left. We have BUF-SEA-MIA. So we have to finish one game better against those teams than they do against theirs.
Anyway, that's a long way to say this isn't a must-win (the home game would be) but man, us losing to ARI and them beating MIA makes things pretty tough.