How Special is Ezekiel?

[CF74]

Sounds alot like homer bias to me. Zeke is elite, but I don't see generational talent when watching him play.

Elite = Generational talent.

Try again...

 

[G2]

Elite = Generational talent.

Try again...

Your own definition.

 

[CF74]

Your own definition.

Oh my bad, Top 5 pick is a scrub..

 

[CouchCoach]

Elite = Generational talent.

Try again...

I do not agree with that, I do think he is elite but is not a generational talent. Barkley is more of a generational talent than Elliott. And Gurley would be if he could stay healthy. Elliott is more like Gordon.

 

[CouchCoach]

Oh my bad, Top 5 pick is a scrub..

Are all top 5 picks generational talent? Ryan Leaf must be from the lost generation.

 

[CF74]

Are all top 5 picks generational talent? Ryan Leaf must be from the lost generation.

Clearly not...

 

[buybuydandavis]

MB3 was an animal but due to his brutal style he didn't last long. Gawd dog, his highlights are a joy.

A couple of years of 4.8 y/a on half a bell cow load. You can squeeze out a little more production if you're willing to take the punishment for it. But you won't last long that way.

Good call for his career. Let him cash in on one big contract.

 

[buybuydandavis]

He was dinged up. It happens.

We kept running Felix injured for 2 years. And he was done.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

@Toruk_Makto Everything this guy said.

So what you're saying is Zeke is so special that we can't quantify his talent? And that is why he doesn't break long runs or forced missed tackles? And even when the box isn't stacked more than it is for other RBs it's this keen awareness from the defense that makes him fail on short yardage and in the red zone? Consistently and for 3 stataight years?

That's... A take.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

BTW, please find a 3rd grader who agrees with you that Alfred Morris is a legitimate replacement for Ezekiel Elliot. From the certainty you have in your opinion of Zeke, it shouldn't be hard.

Strawman.

I've never said use Morris as a Zeke replacement.

And you know that.

But while we are here we'll be able to run the ball without Zeke just fine. And given Zeke's lack of efficiency who knows....

 

[G2]

We kept running Felix injured for 2 years. And he was done.

So what? He split carries and there's no real comparison.
And I didn't say injured.

 

[Thomas82]

To sum it up in 1 word: VERY.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

But the issue is more about team's run blitzing and selling out against the short game, not just stacking the box. If Zeke has both safeties three yards closer by the time he reaches the LOS, its going to affect his YPC.

He doesn't though.

 

[CWR]

A couple of years of 4.8 y/a on half a bell cow load. You can squeeze out a little more production if you're willing to take the punishment for it. But you won't last long that way.

Good call for his career. Let him cash in on one big contract.

He was more than willing. He would seek out defenders. He played RB like a LB. LOL

 

[punchnjudy]

Leaders in 1st Down Conversions on 3rd/4th Down 3 Yards or less to go

Zeke 24/31 77%
Chris Carson 19/25 76%
Todd Gurley 14/22 64%
Joe Mixon 13/20 65%
James Conner 12/15 80%
Alvin Kamara 12/14 86%
Sony Michel 12/17 70%
Marlon Mack 10/15 66%
Gus Edwards 10/12 83%
Adrian Peterson 10/12 83%....

Saquon Barkley 8/11 73%

source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com

Looking at that, Zeke doubled the production of most backs in the league while maintaining a conversion rate that was still good but probably not great. It's easy to say other backs like Peterson would have kept up the same rate with almost triple the volume, but you'd think defenses would key on a player that much more when his number is called repeatedly in the same situation. Number of men in the box could depend on the number of receivers on the field. Unless I missed something, the article also lumps 2nd and short with 3rd/4th and short. Those are very different situations. I also don't see any reason to use a confusing stat like EPA for first down conversions. Conversion stats directly measure the actual goal and they work fine.

 

[punchnjudy]

Zeke isn’t as good as Emmitt or Barry or many of the greats. He’s not as good as Saquan, clearly.
His best move is the hurdle in open field. When one on one in the open field, Zeke either hurdles or seeks out contact in hopes of breaking a tackle....he doesn’t have moves...period.

However, he is more than a great pass protector and short yardage back. He has enough speed to go the distance if it’s open. He has great vision for our blocking scheme, and he’s a great power runner in a league that doesn’t have power backs.

Would I make him the highest paid RB? Nope
Do I think another team would make him the highest paid RB? Nope

He needs to sign the contract and get to work....low double digit millions is a very good contract. He can’t sit out for two years without pay and expect to get more from anyone.

I agree--he's not making his living with whatever he's doing after contact. But if I have to invest long-term in a RB, and I'm not sure I want to, I'm definitely opting for the guy who runs to daylight versus the guy who runs through darkness. The second guy isn't living long.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

He doesn't though.

It sure appears that people will invent new reasons for Zeke's middling performance form an efficiency standpoint rather than realize that maybe he isn't as good as we all think/thought.

When you can't argue he actually puts more people in the box you have to pretend suddenly every safety is in a different alignment against Zeke than they are against other RBs as if anyone making that claim has actually tracked/studied that before they typed it out.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Leaders in 1st Down Conversions on 3rd/4th Down 3 Yards or less to go

Zeke 24/31 77%
Chris Carson 19/25 76%
Todd Gurley 14/22 64%
Joe Mixon 13/20 65%
James Conner 12/15 80%
Alvin Kamara 12/14 86%
Sony Michel 12/17 70%
Marlon Mack 10/15 66%
Gus Edwards 10/12 83%
Adrian Peterson 10/12 83%....

Saquon Barkley 8/11 73%

source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com

Looking at that, Zeke doubled the production of most backs in the league while maintaining a conversion rate that was still good but probably not great. It's easy to say other backs like Peterson would have kept up the same rate with almost triple the volume, but you'd think defenses would key on a player that much more when his number is called repeatedly in the same situation. Number of men in the box could depend on the number of receivers on the field. Unless I missed something, the article also lumps 2nd and short with 3rd/4th and short. Those are very different situations. I also don't see any reason to use a confusing stat like EPA for first down conversions. Conversion stats directly measure the actual goal and they work fine.

Expected points added was used in the Red zone.

Win probability added was used in close out situations.

Intuitively that makes sense.

The numbers also were for 2018 alone and for all the last 3 years combined.

 

[buybuydandavis]

He was more than willing. He would seek out defenders. He played RB like a LB. LOL

I wish we had TEs with a similar thirst for violence. They've generally got the size advantage on the guys tackling them. When you're the bigger guy, look for contact. Dreams of Rico driving safeties into the dirt, all not to be.

 

[buybuydandavis]

So what you're saying is Zeke is so special that we can't quantify his talent? And that is why he doesn't break long runs or forced missed tackles? And even when the box isn't stacked more than it is for other RBs it's this keen awareness from the defense that makes him fail on short yardage and in the red zone? Consistently and for 3 stataight years?

That's... A take.

There's always an issue of not getting apples to apples comparisons with stats because of how other teams are playing your team.

I say that's true for both Dak and Zeke for the last couple of years. Teams focused on stopping Zeke and dared Dak and the wideouts to beat them. Also, Linehan was clearly doing no one on the offense any favors. Stats are the *beginning* of analysis.

Last I looked, Zeke had good numbers in short yardage, and for a while we were routinely going for it on 4th downs and keeping drives alive because of it.

Terrance would be counted a stud through 2016 on per target numbers.Those numbers fail to recognize that teams didn't consider him much of a threat *and spent resources* on defending him accordingly. He could be effective in zone, but disappear when covered in man. When teams realized both he and Dez couldn't beat them over the top, his numbers collapsed.