I’m Going To Sailor Proof The Draft For Jerry

[Creeper]

I think this year trading down is a good strategy. Other than that I agree with the rest. Production over measurables and draft guys who love to play football, especially on defense. Just draft football players.

 

[DFWJC]

If the Dolphins offer us 18 and 36 for a crack at one of those Bama WRs, we have to take that deal. We have sooo many holes on defense and the OL. We need to bring in a lot of guys and hope a few pan out.

If they offer 18 , it'd be with pick 50. Perfect and fair trade.
Would be tempting, depending on who is available at the time.
Might drop us down too far though.

 

[Jake]

Someone needs to Johnny Walker proof the draft for Jerry.

 

[Vinnie2u]

Someone needs to Johnny Walker proof the draft for Jerry.

no let him get smashed and passed out...

 

[atlantacowboy]

If they offer 18 , it'd be with pick 50. Perfect and fair trade.
Would be tempting, depending on who is available at the time.
Might drop us down too far though.

Who cares about fair? Buffalo got 2 firsts and a 3rd for this spot in the Mahomes draft. The value of the pick very much depends on whose on the board and how badly the team wants to move up. If Miami really wants a shot at one of the top Wrs, they have picks to burn to make it happen.

 

[DFWJC]

Who cares about fair? Buffalo got 2 firsts and a 3rd for this spot in the Mahomes draft. The value of the pick very much depends on whose on the board and how badly the team wants to move up. If Miami really wants a shot at one of the top Wrs, they have picks to burn to make it happen.

The Mahomes trade fit the chart to a tee, so yes, people care

Im not going to argue this. I mean, its not like Idont want us to get the one trade that is a massive fleece by the chart
Once every 50 or so trades, some team does way overpay to trade up.....maybe as CowboysZone always seem to think, it’ll be with the Cowboys 10 pick this year

id love it!

 

[atlantacowboy]

The Mahomes trade fit the chart to a tee, so yes, people care

Im not going to argue this. I mean, its not like Idont want us to get the one trade that is a massive fleece by the chart
Once every 50 or so trades, some team does way overpay to trade up.....maybe as CowboysZone always seem to think, it’ll be with the Cowboys 10 pick this year

id love it!

Thats impossible to know b/c Buffalo had no idea where KC's first pick would be the following year. So how could it fit into the draft chart?

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

When I was in the navy we had a term Sailor Proof. We tried to make a task for a sailor as easy as possible so they could succeed.

With picks 10,45,75 and 99
1. Take BPA in a position of need... Don’t get stupid..

2. No injury or Drug History

3. Do not trade up or trade down. Trading up means less potential starting players selected. Your picking at the top of each round so don’t dilute the talent pool by trading down for more picks

4. Come out the top 4 pick with 4 of these positions CB, LB,DT, FS and OG

5. Get players more interested in football than their brand.

6. the rest of the draft take BPA don’t matter what position. Trade up or down don’t matter.

I don't see drafting a ST player in the first three rounds. Is this a typo?

 

[Bigdog]

When I was in the navy we had a term Sailor Proof. We tried to make a task for a sailor as easy as possible so they could succeed.

With picks 10,45,75 and 99
1. Take BPA in a position of need... Don’t get stupid..

2. No injury or Drug History

3. Do not trade up or trade down. Trading up means less potential starting players selected. Your picking at the top of each round so don’t dilute the talent pool by trading down for more picks

4. Come out the top 4 pick with 4 of these positions CB, LB,DT, FS and OG

5. Get players more interested in football than their brand.

6. the rest of the draft take BPA don’t matter what position. Trade up or down don’t matter.

I stopped reading after number 2. You know Jerry can't help himself, lol.

 

[DFWJC]

Thats impossible to know b/c Buffalo had no idea where KC's first pick would be the following year. So how could it fit into the draft chart?

I thought youd know this by now.
Right or wrong and not my idea......but draft trades for future picks are, based on every trade over the last 15-20 years are roughly (not exact obviously) valued like so......
For this current year..2021

• a 2022 1st rounder is valued as a 2021 mid to upper mid 2nd rounder (so roighly pick 42-45 range)
• a 2023 1st rounder would be valued as roughly a mid to upper 2021 3rd...so roughly 75 range

 

[charron]

Blanket statements just do not work well with the draft.

The template should be:
Trading up is always extremely risky-
Trading down is always an option-
Follow your board-

 

[Parcells4Life]

I’d want more than just 36 to go down 8 spots myself
The chart says it’s a good trade but the quality of player at one of our biggest positions of need drops dramatically from 10 to 18
I see CB as a much bigger need than some
People say build the rush and it makes weaker CB’s better
While somewhat true there is no real impact DT you can get in this draft who’s gonna stuff the run and create QB pressure
That’s why no DT is going very early in this draft

If you can get 18 and 36 you could possibly have

18 - Newsome
36 - Grant
44 - Onzuireke

That would go a long way to fixing the defense.

 

[Whirlwin]

New England. Trade with them draft JC horn who you want anyways . And still get the best safety and the draft at 42 I believe

 

[CWR]

When I was in the navy we had a term Sailor Proof. We tried to make a task for a sailor as easy as possible so they could succeed.

With picks 10,45,75 and 99
1. Take BPA in a position of need... Don’t get stupid..

2. No injury or Drug History

3. Do not trade up or trade down. Trading up means less potential starting players selected. Your picking at the top of each round so don’t dilute the talent pool by trading down for more picks

4. Come out the top 4 pick with 4 of these positions CB, LB,DT, FS and OG

5. Get players more interested in football than their brand.

6. the rest of the draft take BPA don’t matter what position. Trade up or down don’t matter.

Sounds like fireman proofing. Also a widely used term in the FD. To this day I've seen no such thing. Lol
# 5 is

 

[conner01]

If you can get 18 and 36 you could possibly have

18 - Newsome
36 - Grant
44 - Onzuireke

That would go a long way to fixing the defense.

Assuming you can get a guy 36 or 44 picks into a draft is a reach when we can even figure who’s gonna be there 10 picks in
You risk instead of having a shot at one of the top 2 at a position to maybe the 4th and you have no idea what after that, but in a draft very weak on the dline, a run on db’s seems logical
By the way I’d love to get Gant

 

[atlantacowboy]

I thought youd know this by now.
Right or wrong and not my idea......but draft trades for future picks are, based on every trade over the last 15-20 years are roughly (not exact obviously) valued like so......
For this current year..2021

• a 2022 1st rounder is valued as a 2021 mid to upper mid 2nd rounder (so roighly pick 42-45 range)
• a 2023 1st rounder would be valued as roughly a mid to upper 2021 3rd...so roughly 75 range

I don't buy the value of future first round picks is actually a second round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. If that weren't so, teams would be trading 2nd round picks for first round picks the following year. Nobody does that....its rare. The chart is not a law. It is a guide. We took less than chart value from the Niners to move out of the 17 spot and draft travis frederick at the end of the round. We accepted a 3rd rounder , though the chart said it should have been a second rounder. A lot of the value depends on whose on the board and how desperate a team might be to trade. You think J-ville would accept a simple draft chart trade for the highest rated QB prospect since Andrew Luck and John Elway?

 

[DFWJC]

The chart is not a law. We took less than chart value from the Niners to move out of the 17 spot and draft travis frederick at the end of the round. We accepted a 3rd rounder , though the chart said it should have been a second rounder. The draft chart is a guide not an absolute. A lot of the value depends on whose on the board and how desperate a team might be to trade. You think J-ville would accept a simple draft chart trade for the highest rated QB prospect since Andrew Luck and John Elway?

Of course, the chart is not the law. Never said it was...just giving the averages and the overwhelming norm.
Hey, if someone wants a player bad enough, go get him as far as I'm concerned. But the league generally does not trade that way. Just telling you.
It's not me, it's them.

It's not cut in stone, but the facts are that the VAST majority of trades not including existing players or in the very top 1-3 picks of the draft are within roughly 5% of the charts.
I mean, it's nearly impossible to get a 100% match....but say, 93-98% accuracy is the norm.

I don't care that they are or are not, I'm just simply giving you the facts.

And normally, the team trading up is the one that gets the discount. Not always, but usually.
So if someone predicts a trade like NE giving us 15 and 46 for 10....well, that would be pretty surprising. A team trading UP for QB or not, very rarely overpays by that much.
It has happened though...Dallas got a great deal when Cleveland traded up for Brady Quinn, for example....a very long time ago.

As for that Frederick trade
Dallas gave up 18 and got 31 and 74
That's 900 for 820...so "only" 91% accurate...but still not terrible. But under my study over the last decade, it would've slightly stood out, but not horribly so.

I also think really late in draft the chart can't be too accurate. I mean, if you trade something that adds up to for something that adds to 13, you're already off by 30%.

 

[DFWJC]

I don't buy the value of future first round picks is actually a second round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. If that weren't so, teams would be trading 2nd round picks for first round picks the following year. Nobody does that....its rare. The chart is not a law. It is a guide. We took less than chart value from the Niners to move out of the 17 spot and draft travis frederick at the end of the round. We accepted a 3rd rounder , though the chart said it should have been a second rounder. A lot of the value depends on whose on the board and how desperate a team might be to trade. You think J-ville would accept a simple draft chart trade for the highest rated QB prospect since Andrew Luck and John Elway?

Well, teams have and DO directly trade current 2nds for future 1sts....and more often... current 3rd for future 2ds, current 6th for future 5ths, etc.
Literally, they do that exact trade and have many times.

Again, not my rules, but after studying 100s of trades I can tell you with certainty that is "roughly" how they are valued. In the financial world, it's a simple PV calculation.
Bird in hand is worth more to these guys right now than waiting a year, that's all I can tell you.

Also, it's not usually exactly the middle of the next round. It's slightly better than that. And I would guess some GMs try to guess the records the coming year and adjust 2-3 slots higher or lower based on that.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

If they offer 18 , it'd be with pick 50. Perfect and fair trade.
Would be tempting, depending on who is available at the time.
Might drop us down too far though.

Then trade back up with 44 and 50 and see how high we could get

 

[atlantacowboy]

Well, teams have and DO directly trade current 2nds for future 1sts....and more often... current 3rd for future 2ds, current 6th for future 5ths, etc.
Literally, they do that exact trade and have many times.

Again, not my rules, but after studying 100s of trades I can tell you with certainty that is "roughly" how they are valued. In the financial world, it's a simple PV calculation.
Bird in hand is worth more to these guys right now than waiting a year, that's all I can tell you.

Also, it's not usually exactly the middle of the next round. It's slightly better than that. And I would guess some GMs try to guess the records the coming year and adjust 2-3 slots higher or lower based on that.

Ok. Lets take a look at the Eagles trade back from 6 to 12 which is a difference of 400 points. Philly picks up a 2022 first round pick for the trouble. Does that mean the first round pick is only worth 400 points? Of course not, but such is recorded in that future values chart. If philly only required 400 points, why wouldn't Miami just offer one of their second round picks in this draft and keep next years first rounder? Could it be b/c Philly isn't accepting that deal b/c they know that first round pick is going to be more valuable? Of course it is. Philly wanted the more valuable 1st round pick in next years draft. Miami undervalued the pick b/c they are flush with draft picks and they wanted to move up badly. Ask any team in the league if they would rather have a second round pick now or a first rounder next year. its a no brainer.