I prefer Dallas' draft position

[erod]

Prepare for the ritual of panic on draft day. As everybody's pet players and pie-in-the-sky hopefuls get snagged off the pile for those brutal hours leading up to Dallas' pick, there's a cloud of doom that sets in. It's a natural football reaction.

"HURRY, ALL THE GOOD ONES ARE ALMOST GONE!"

No, they won't be. In fact, call me crazy, but I like drafting late. Here's why.

1. Teams can't draft everybody in the first 26 picks. Good players fall, and it gives a well-run draft room - which we finally have - the chance to digest and calculate the best move to make. Sometimes LOTS of good players on your board fall, which makes trading back a few spots smart. Sometimes a run starts on a position of a player you REALLY want, so you have a chance to discuss a trade up. There's time to think.

2. There's less financial risk, AND teams get a fifth-year option for the later first-round picks. Even though the new CBA has lessened the risk, there are still high-priced busts littering the top 10-15 picks. Teams are often over-pressured to take the big QB name, or the physical freak DE diva, when the bang-for-buck just isn't there in relation to the commitment involved.

3. Solid picks tend to come late in the first round and through the third. That's when guys like Travis Frederick and Sean Lee and Demarco Murray get picked. Good, solid players that didn't necessarily wow everybody at the combine. They can be had for a reasonable amount of money, and they have plenty to prove when the arrive.

4. The prospective layout evolves before your eyes. Teams reach for guys. A run on QBs or tight ends begins, and names you didn't imagine start a free fall, which leads to trades and panic from lesser franchises (Oakland and Washington come to mind), which just pushes more possibilities Dallas' way. Of course, this can work the other way, too.

5. Negotiations can be had in the background as the draft evolves. Minnesota is trying to unload Adrian Peterson, and I think the only way Dallas goes for that would be a draft-night bargain trade. Drafting later plays into Dallas' hands if they are interested at all in him. The Vikings will start to panic if nothing has happened by draft night.

6. The anticipation is just more fun. When you pick early, it's like your wedding night. It's over before you blink.

 

[Crown Royal]

Pick location within the round is overrated. It's important, but not as much as people think. Travis Frederick was pick number 31.

I care more about count-of-picks in the top 100, which I think we do a poor job of maximizing. If you can pick 4 players out of the top 100, you're better than average and have an even better chance of finding starters.

 

[erod]

Pick location within the round is overrated. It's important, but not as much as people think. Travis Frederick was pick number 31.

I care more about count-of-picks in the top 100, which I think we do a poor job of maximizing. If you can pick 4 players out of the top 100, you're better than average and have an even better chance of finding starters.

I see your point, but even that's overvalued to a degree.

Guys like Arian Foster, Tony Romo, Richard Sherman, Tom Brady, Robert Mathis, Marques Colston, Michael Bennett, Adalius Thomas.....

Not only are these good players, they're CHEAP for a long time, which allows your team to adjust for need in free agency.

 

[erod]

Here's an example.

If last year's draft was re-done at receiver, what order would Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, and Kelvin Benjamin go in now? And where would they be taken today in the draft?

I like to sit and wait a bit.

 

[Crown Royal]

I see your point, but even that's overvalued to a degree.

Guys like Arian Foster, Tony Romo, Richard Sherman, Tom Brady, Robert Mathis, Marques Colston, Michael Bennett, Adalius Thomas.....

Not only are these good players, they're CHEAP for a long time, which allows your team to adjust for need in free agency.

I'm not suggesting you don't keep those picks, nor that you cannot find people there. But the probability diminishes as you get into the later rounds.

Of course there are tons of different variables, but the draft is really a closed experiment on capitalism and it proves some theories. Specifically, that the market is correct on value more often than it isn't.

 

[Crown Royal]

Here's an example.

If last year's draft was re-done at receiver, what order would Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, and Kelvin Benjamin go in now? And where would they be taken today in the draft?

I like to sit and wait a bit.

Guys like Jordan Matthews and Luke Joekel are going to start affecting the tackle position overall. So many "sure things" have busted in the top 10 when it comes to tackle.

 

[erod]

I'm not suggesting you don't keep those picks, nor that you cannot find people there. But the probability diminishes as you get into the later rounds.

Of course there are tons of different variables, but the draft is really a closed experiment on capitalism and it proves some theories. Specifically, that the market is correct on value more often than it isn't.

Capitalistic in market value, socialistic in that players get drafted to by the worst teams first, and communistic in that there's a draft to begin with.

But I get your point.

 

[erod]

Guys like Jordan Matthews and Luke Joekel are going to start affecting the tackle position overall. So many "sure things" have busted in the top 10 when it comes to tackle.

At least from College Station, for sure.

 

[Crown Royal]

Capitalistic in market value, socialistic in that players get drafted to by the worst teams first, and communistic in that there's a draft to begin with.

But I get your point.

Yeah that's a better description.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Here's an example.

If last year's draft was re-done at receiver, what order would Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, and Kelvin Benjamin go in now? And where would they be taken today in the draft?

I like to sit and wait a bit.

Like wait a year then go back and retroactively draft a guy now on another team? Wut.

Anyway....

All else equal picking sooner rather than later is... ummm.... I feel silly having to say this out loud.... better.

 

[Crown Royal]

At least from College Station, for sure.

lol

I still can't get over how bad Robert Gallery was in the NFL though. He was the surest of sure things and washed out.

I think tackles are going to start slipping in value overall anyway and guards/centers are starting to climb. I'm happy the Cowboys bought early.

 

[justbob]

Seems like the top ten are super need, but super risk picks. 11-20 are more solid --maybe because they are all going to teams with better players around them. 21 to 32 puts you in a position to trade up or down while minimizing the cost. And the fifth year option on pick 1-32 is an added value .

 

[erod]

Like wait a year then go back and retroactively draft a guy now on another team? Wut.

Anyway....

All else equal picking sooner rather than later is... ummm.... I feel silly having to say this out loud.... better.

Generally, but the chance of the financial repercussions of Mo Claiborne, RG3, or Eric Fisher are riskier.

 

[jazzcat22]

I think we will be fine at 27 and will get great value. They dropped from what 16 to 31 2 years ago, stuck to the draft board last year, when they could have easily gambled to trade down, and hoped Martin would still have been there.
So I think they have a very good grasp on this as what to do this year.

I still wouldn't mind a trade down, no more than top 10 in the 2nd round, and pick up an extra 3rd, probably from 20 to 30 range. Before the comp picks take place.

Then we can get 4 in the top 96.
Because our late 4th round pick will be like a top 5th or even to the mid 5th round depending on how many comp picks in the 3rd & 4th rounds. But may not be that big of a drop off in 15 players at that point. But still, it's the principle of it.

 

[Hardline]

I prefer Tampa's draft position.

 

[Crown Royal]

I think we will be fine at 27 and will get great value. They dropped from what 16 to 31 2 years ago, stuck to the draft board last year, when they could have easily gambled to trade down, and hoped Martin would still have been there.
So I think they have a very good grasp on this as what to do this year.

I still wouldn't mind a trade down, no more than top 10 in the 2nd round, and pick up an extra 3rd, probably from 20 to 30 range. Before the comp picks take place.

Then we can get 4 in the top 96.
Because our late 4th round pick will be like a top 5th or even to the mid 5th round depending on how many comp picks in the 3rd & 4th rounds. But may not be that big of a drop off in 15 players at that point. But still, it's the principle of it.

I love dropping back if you can pick up a third, but I agree on the range. If it's too far it hurts.

In my opinion, there is a lot of value to be had in the third round. You still have potential starters, you can move around easier, and even if it doesn't pan out as a starter, you can get good depth.

 

[Longboysfan]

I prefer Tampa's draft position.

Hmmmm... So would most here...
But there is a reason that Tampa, Washington, Oakland are drafting at the top on average.
We don't want to be part of that reason.

 

[DFWJC]

Adding the cost in does affect it some, but not nearly like it used to with the giant 1st round contracts.

The fact is that statistically speaking, the further down you draft, the lower the odds of finding a Pro Bowler or even a long term starter.
Those are the facts.

But there are some truly great exceptions to that fact every single year in the draft.

 

[erod]

If drafting early is so great, why are the same same teams doing it every year?

 

[erod]

I prefer Tampa's draft position.

So do they, apparently.

They've been doing it 40 years.