I prefer Dallas' draft position

[T-RO]

NFL general managers would snicker at this thread. In truth the'd laugh pretty hard. There is a RADICAL difference in value from the top to the bottom of round one...in fact the first overall pick is worth way beyond TWO picks at the bottom of round one.

All the execs have a draft chart that assigns points to each pick. Teams might squabble a little but there virtually universal agreement about the big picture.

The most popular chart assigns 3,000 points of value to Round 1, pick 1
Only 590 points to Round 1, pick 32

Picks like 27 and 31 are essentially second round picks.

There are obviously differences from year to year. This year skews different as front offices know. It's a deeper draft but without any surefire quarterbacks. No Andrew Luck or Troy Aikmans here. So the point value of the charts will fluctuate. Nevertheless it's a MASSIVE advantage to draft in the top 5...and the point difference, though never as dramatically different as round one...helps in all 7 rounds.

I'd love to hear EROD play general manager on draft day and try to work a trade with his concepts! What he'd hear on the other end? Crickets. LOL.

 

[erod]

NFL general managers would snicker at this thread. In truth the'd laugh pretty hard. There is a RADICAL difference in value from the top to the bottom of round one...in fact the first overall pick is worth way beyond TWO picks at the bottom of round one.

All the execs have a draft chart that assigns points to each pick. Teams might squabble a little but there virtually universal agreement about the big picture.

The most popular chart assigns 3,000 points of value to Round 1, pick 1
Only 590 points to Round 1, pick 32

Picks like 27 and 31 are essentially second round picks.

There are obviously differences from year to year. This year skews different as front offices know. It's a deeper draft but without any surefire quarterbacks. No Andrew Luck or Troy Aikmans here. So the point value of the charts will fluctuate. Nevertheless it's a MASSIVE advantage to draft in the top 5...and the point difference, though never as dramatically different as round one...helps in all 7 rounds.

I'd love to hear EROD play general manager on draft day and try to work a trade with his concepts! What he'd hear on the other end? Crickets. LOL.

If you could re-draft the first round of the past 10 years, they would be virtually unrecognizable.

 

[dallasdave]

Prepare for the ritual of panic on draft day. As everybody's pet players and pie-in-the-sky hopefuls get snagged off the pile for those brutal hours leading up to Dallas' pick, there's a cloud of doom that sets in. It's a natural football reaction.

"HURRY, ALL THE GOOD ONES ARE ALMOST GONE!"

No, they won't be. In fact, call me crazy, but I like drafting late. Here's why.

1. Teams can't draft everybody in the first 26 picks. Good players fall, and it gives a well-run draft room - which we finally have - the chance to digest and calculate the best move to make. Sometimes LOTS of good players on your board fall, which makes trading back a few spots smart. Sometimes a run starts on a position of a player you REALLY want, so you have a chance to discuss a trade up. There's time to think.

2. There's less financial risk, AND teams get a fifth-year option for the later first-round picks. Even though the new CBA has lessened the risk, there are still high-priced busts littering the top 10-15 picks. Teams are often over-pressured to take the big QB name, or the physical freak DE diva, when the bang-for-buck just isn't there in relation to the commitment involved.

3. Solid picks tend to come late in the first round and through the third. That's when guys like Travis Frederick and Sean Lee and Demarco Murray get picked. Good, solid players that didn't necessarily wow everybody at the combine. They can be had for a reasonable amount of money, and they have plenty to prove when the arrive.

4. The prospective layout evolves before your eyes. Teams reach for guys. A run on QBs or tight ends begins, and names you didn't imagine start a free fall, which leads to trades and panic from lesser franchises (Oakland and Washington come to mind), which just pushes more possibilities Dallas' way. Of course, this can work the other way, too.

5. Negotiations can be had in the background as the draft evolves. Minnesota is trying to unload Adrian Peterson, and I think the only way Dallas goes for that would be a draft-night bargain trade. Drafting later plays into Dallas' hands if they are interested at all in him. The Vikings will start to panic if nothing has happened by draft night.

6. The anticipation is just more fun. When you pick early, it's like your wedding night. It's over before you blink.

Fredbeard was good at the end of the 1st round.

 

[erod]

Top Ten picks from 2009:

11Detroit LionsStafford, MatthewMatthew Stafford† QBGeorgiaSEC
12St. Louis RamsSmith, JasonJason Smith OTBaylorBig 12
13Kansas City ChiefsJackson, TysonTyson Jackson DELSUSEC
14Seattle SeahawksCurry, AaronAaron Curry LBWake ForestACC
15New York JetsSanchez, MarkMark Sanchez QBUSCPac-10from Cleveland [R1 - 1]
16Cincinnati BengalsSmith, AndreAndre Smith OTAlabamaSEC
17Oakland RaidersHeyward-Bey, DarriusDarrius Heyward-Bey WRMarylandACC
18Jacksonville JaguarsMonroe, EugeneEugene Monroe OTVirginiaACC
19Green Bay PackersRaji, B. J.B. J. Raji† DTBoston CollegeACC
110San Francisco 49ersCrabtree, MichaelMichael Crabtree WRTexas TechBig 12


WOW, look at all that value!

 

[tyke1doe]

6. The anticipation is just more fun. When you pick early, it's like your wedding night. It's over before you blink.

Speak for yourself, bucko.

P.S., Good analysis. I agree. It seems as if the Ravens and Steelers are always finding late first-round gems. And as if I have to remind anyone, Dan Marino was taken late in the first round.

 

[erod]

Speak for yourself, bucko.

P.S., Good analysis. I agree. It seems as if the Ravens and Steelers are always finding late first-round gems. And as if I have to remind anyone, Dan Marino was taken late in the first round.

And Joe Montana was taken in the 3rd round.

 

[tyke1doe]

I prefer Tampa's draft position.

Who would you take?

 

[T-RO]

Top Ten picks from 2009:

11Detroit LionsStafford, MatthewMatthew Stafford† QBGeorgiaSEC
12St. Louis RamsSmith, JasonJason Smith OTBaylorBig 12
13Kansas City ChiefsJackson, TysonTyson Jackson DELSUSEC
14Seattle SeahawksCurry, AaronAaron Curry LBWake ForestACC
15New York JetsSanchez, MarkMark Sanchez QBUSCPac-10from Cleveland [R1 - 1]
16Cincinnati BengalsSmith, AndreAndre Smith OTAlabamaSEC
17Oakland RaidersHeyward-Bey, DarriusDarrius Heyward-Bey WRMarylandACC
18Jacksonville JaguarsMonroe, EugeneEugene Monroe OTVirginiaACC
19Green Bay PackersRaji, B. J.B. J. Raji† DTBoston CollegeACC
110San Francisco 49ersCrabtree, MichaelMichael Crabtree WRTexas TechBig 12


WOW, look at all that value!

Cherry picking a slice from one draft proves only one thing: that you are a cherry picker!

If you were correct about this the execs of the league (who spend millions researching this stuff) would update their chart to reflect. (Those charts do get tweaked you know!) But you aren't right. You are silly wrong.

Is the draft inexact? Of course! Will there be busts? Of course. Can you find exceptions that seem to contradict? Big Duh! But if Jerry could spend millions of his own money to move up to the top of the draft this year...he'd be scrambling over bodies to find a pen!

 

[xwalker]

So a bit of a thread hijack but let's say a few years ago Dallas had acquired Tampa Bay's 2015 1st round pick. So, we still were a very good team last season, but now we have the top overall pick. Who do you take? and why?

Leonard Williams but I would try to trade out and would take some future picks if possible.

I would like to accululate future picks and eventually draft a QB in the top 10.

 

[xwalker]

NFL general managers would snicker at this thread. In truth the'd laugh pretty hard. There is a RADICAL difference in value from the top to the bottom of round one...in fact the first overall pick is worth way beyond TWO picks at the bottom of round one.

All the execs have a draft chart that assigns points to each pick. Teams might squabble a little but there virtually universal agreement about the big picture.

The most popular chart assigns 3,000 points of value to Round 1, pick 1
Only 590 points to Round 1, pick 32

Picks like 27 and 31 are essentially second round picks.

There are obviously differences from year to year. This year skews different as front offices know. It's a deeper draft but without any surefire quarterbacks. No Andrew Luck or Troy Aikmans here. So the point value of the charts will fluctuate. Nevertheless it's a MASSIVE advantage to draft in the top 5...and the point difference, though never as dramatically different as round one...helps in all 7 rounds.

I'd love to hear EROD play general manager on draft day and try to work a trade with his concepts! What he'd hear on the other end? Crickets. LOL.

I don't think he meant it was litterally better to have a later pick or I hope that's not what he was saying. I think he was saying that as a fan he enjoys the process more when they have a later pick.

 

[xwalker]

Prepare for the ritual of panic on draft day. As everybody's pet players and pie-in-the-sky hopefuls get snagged off the pile for those brutal hours leading up to Dallas' pick, there's a cloud of doom that sets in. It's a natural football reaction.

"HURRY, ALL THE GOOD ONES ARE ALMOST GONE!"

No, they won't be. In fact, call me crazy, but I like drafting late. Here's why.

1. Teams can't draft everybody in the first 26 picks. Good players fall, and it gives a well-run draft room - which we finally have - the chance to digest and calculate the best move to make. Sometimes LOTS of good players on your board fall, which makes trading back a few spots smart. Sometimes a run starts on a position of a player you REALLY want, so you have a chance to discuss a trade up. There's time to think.

2. There's less financial risk, AND teams get a fifth-year option for the later first-round picks. Even though the new CBA has lessened the risk, there are still high-priced busts littering the top 10-15 picks. Teams are often over-pressured to take the big QB name, or the physical freak DE diva, when the bang-for-buck just isn't there in relation to the commitment involved.

3. Solid picks tend to come late in the first round and through the third. That's when guys like Travis Frederick and Sean Lee and Demarco Murray get picked. Good, solid players that didn't necessarily wow everybody at the combine. They can be had for a reasonable amount of money, and they have plenty to prove when the arrive.

4. The prospective layout evolves before your eyes. Teams reach for guys. A run on QBs or tight ends begins, and names you didn't imagine start a free fall, which leads to trades and panic from lesser franchises (Oakland and Washington come to mind), which just pushes more possibilities Dallas' way. Of course, this can work the other way, too.

5. Negotiations can be had in the background as the draft evolves. Minnesota is trying to unload Adrian Peterson, and I think the only way Dallas goes for that would be a draft-night bargain trade. Drafting later plays into Dallas' hands if they are interested at all in him. The Vikings will start to panic if nothing has happened by draft night.

6. The anticipation is just more fun. When you pick early, it's like your wedding night. It's over before you blink.

There is a 5th round option for ALL first round picks.

 

[erod]

Cherry picking a slice from one draft proves only one thing: that you are a cherry picker!

If you were correct about this the execs of the league (who spend millions researching this stuff) would update their chart to reflect. (Those charts do get tweaked you know!) But you aren't right. You are silly wrong.

Is the draft inexact? Of course! Will there be busts? Of course. Can you find exceptions that seem to contradict? Big Duh! But if Jerry could spend millions of his own money to move up to the top of the draft this year...he'd be scrambling over bodies to find a pen!

And look where that got us.

Somehow, New England continues to roll on despite pretty much sitting out the first 20 picks for two decades.

 

[erod]

There is a 5th round option for ALL first round picks.

I know, I didn't write that well. I meant that you get the option without paying the premium wage that the early picks get.

 

[Hardline]

As long as we don't get fleeced again like in 2013 by the Niners, I'll be happy. Sure, we luckily picked up T. Williams with that extra draft pick, but we let them move up almost half the 1st round in exchange for a mid-3rd round pick. I felt a little woozy when it was initially announced.

If getting fleeced results in getting a pro bowl caliber player like Fredrick. Ill line up to get fleeced.

 

[Nightman]

Like wait a year then go back and retroactively draft a guy now on another team? Wut.

Anyway....

All else equal picking sooner rather than later is... ummm.... I feel silly having to say this out loud.... better.

He is trying to make the best out of a bad situation, but I agree that having a higher pick is better.......and that water is wet

 

[ElGatoGrande]

I think Jerry should use this line of reasoning on the GMs picking early, maybe they'll trade us even...

 

[erod]

He is trying to make the best out of a bad situation, but I agree that having a higher pick is better.......and that water is wet

Believe it or not, not really. This team got better because of Frederick and Martin and Hitchens and Beasley and Williams and Bailey and Wilcox.....

The shiny toys have always been here. It's the nuts and bolts that were missing, and those can be found all over. Drafting a bit later focuses a team on that. Even if Claiborne panned out, how big a difference would he have made versus what's here. Some, but not like Frederick and Martin.

Besides, the Gronks, Bowmans, Shermans, Wilsons, Edlemans, etc, come from all over the draft. Arian Foster was undrafted. Geno Atkins was a 4th. Michael Bennett wasn't even drafted.

Meanwhile, the Commanders, Chiefs, Raiders, Titans, Bills, etc, have a roster full of top 15 picks, and continue to go nowhere.

Please show me the team of today that was built on high first-round picks. Unless it's a top flight QB, they just don't make the impact that their cost suggests.

 

[Nightman]

Believe it or not, not really. This team got better because of Frederick and Martin and Hitchens and Beasley and Williams and Bailey and Wilcox.....

The shiny toys have always been here. It's the nuts and bolts that were missing, and those can be found all over. Drafting a bit later focuses a team on that. Even if Claiborne panned out, how big a difference would he have made versus what's here. Some, but not like Frederick and Martin.

Besides, the Gronks, Bowmans, Shermans, Wilsons, Edlemans, etc, come from all over the draft. Arian Foster was undrafted. Geno Atkins was a 4th. Michael Bennett wasn't even drafted.

Meanwhile, the Commanders, Chiefs, Raiders, Titans, Bills, etc, have a roster full of top 15 picks, and continue to go nowhere.

Please show me the team of today that was built on high first-round picks. Unless it's a top flight QB, they just don't make the impact that their cost suggests.

Your premise is built on a fallacy. It is always better to have the higher picks. If you can get Fred at 31, you can get him at 10, but you could also get someone much better or more picks by trading back.

Just because teams have missed on some top 10 picks, it doesn't make later better magically.

 

[Nightman]

Leonard Williams but I would try to trade out and would take some future picks if possible.

I would like to accumulate future picks and eventually draft a QB in the top 10.

That would be the plan. I don't think Mariotta or Winston are Franchise picks, but desperate teams may pay a bounty to move up and get them.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

He is trying to make the best out of a bad situation, but I agree that having a higher pick is better.......and that water is wet

And that Dez caught it.