TL ; DR - Yes, I do think Dak could get a $40 million contract in free agency.
Why?
There are 9 teams that have ~$29+ million in cap room for 2021, with all but 2 having a big need at QB. The teams are:
- Jags
- Jets
- Patriots
- Colts
- Broncos
- Washington
- Bengals
- Dolphins
- Panthers
I would count out the Colts and Bengals since they have young "good" QB on their rosters right now.
I would also count out the Jags and Jets since they pick 1/2 in the draft and can get the QBs of their choice without giving up anything else.
So that leaves:
- Patriots - Oh, that is interesting. NE does not pay a lot for fre -agents, but after the failure of not having a good QB last year, they could be willing to pay now.
- Broncos - I could see it considering they don't have anything viable at QB right now.
- Washington - There is apparently interest, and with the D they currently have, they would be tough with a Dak-like QB.
- Dolphins - They spent a Top-5 pick on Tua last year, but Tua had a very mixed rookie year. So I would say doubtful, but would not be surprised either.
- Panthers - They could cut Bridgewater this year and save anywhere from ~$3 to $8 million (pre vs post June cut), and use that to help pay Prescott. I don't think it would be a long shot either considering, at least IMO, Teddy is only a backup at the NFL level now.
Even the 49ers could go after Dak with just a little bit of roster manipulation.
So again, I believe if Dak was a Free Agent this year, I think he could get ~$40 million a year by 4 or 5 possible teams.
But I don't think a team would give up two first rounders AND sign him to such a large contract. Especially since there is virtually no reasonable way for the Cowboys to tag him 3 years in a row. They can afford to wait a year, make sure Dak's injury does not have any long-term effects, and then get him for the "market price" instead of "market + premium draft picks".
Anyways, JMHO.