If the Cowboys Trade Out of the First...

[Risen Star]

I can see plenty and don't need the snotty remarks.

You are simply wrong if you don't think a 1st round pick can be a huge improvement to a roster and possible difference maker. It you don't then why would care about adding more picks at all. Sometimes a trade may be smart, other times taking a player this year will be better,

If you want to make the argument that USMarineVet is making that the don't contribute for at least a year, then that value is still being accounted for by getting the learning year out the way sooner.

Certainly I think a 1st round pick can be a huge improvement to a roster and possible difference maker. It's just that I believe that's true next year too. I don't believe a 2015 2nd round pick is equal to a 2016 1st round pick. Just like I don't believe a 1st this year is equal to a 2nd last year.

The people that believe that are fixated on the present with overall value be damned.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Pick 27 could very well be a 2nd rounder for the Cowboys. Teams usually only have about 18-22 1st round grades. There's a chance the Cowboys won't have a 1st round graded player available when they pick. At that point they are in the 2nd round according to their scouting department.

Exactly, if there is no player on the board at 27 with a first round grade when the Cowboys pick, then by definition there's a zero percent chance of landing a first round talent with that pick. Trading the pick for a future first rounder gives them a much better chance (i.e. greater than zero) of acquiring a first round talent with that pick the following year.

 

[USMarineVet]

Oh boy...

If we're sitting at #27 and find a trade partner for our 1st round pick, we don't lose the pick. It transforms to next year and we get an additional pick(s) this year. VALUE

If we're sitting at #27 and find a trade partner for our 1st round pick, we have a better than 80% chance that that 1st round pick will be upgraded to a better draft position the following year. VALUE

When 2016 rolls around and now we have two 1st round picks, plus our other regular draft picks, plus what is currently presumed to be 3 - 4 compensatory picks in the mid round ranges, you now hold the hottest hand of any team in the league come draft day. This opens up many possibilities. You can move up into the top 5 if there's someone you can't live without. You can stand pat and get 2 excellent players. You can again trade down, stock-piling more picks and STILL have a 1st rounder and all those other picks. You now command this draft and can use it as you see fit. VALUE

 

[ThreeandOut]

A team willing to trade away its future first round pick in this way is a little like the broke guy that has to get a pay day loan to pay his bills. He's paying a very high price to borrow that money, just like the team trading away the pick is paying a very high price to have the immediate gratification of that pick. The team willing to forego the pick this year is the payday lender. They can afford to defer the immediate payoff in exchange for a much greater payout the following year. You always want to be the lender in that relationship.

 

[Nightman]

Oh boy...

If we're sitting at #27 and find a trade partner for our 1st round pick, we don't lose the pick. It transforms to next year and we get an additional pick(s) this year. VALUE

If we're sitting at #27 and find a trade partner for our 1st round pick, we have a better than 80% chance that that 1st round pick will be upgraded to a better draft position the following year. VALUE

When 2016 rolls around and now we have two 1st round picks, plus our other regular draft picks, plus what is currently presumed to be 3 - 4 compensatory picks in the mid round ranges, you now hold the hottest hand of any team in the league come draft day. This opens up many possibilities. You can move up into the top 5 if there's someone you can't live without. You can stand pat and get 2 excellent players. You can again trade down, stock-piling more picks and STILL have a 1st rounder and all those other picks. You now command this draft and can use it as you see fit. VALUE

A-You can always trade away future first round picks to move up if they are all equal. Having 2 first round picks will only get you a higher 1st round pick, which is pretty much the opposite of what you are saying.

B-Do you think you could get a 1st round pick for Martin right now? I do and Dallas got a Pro Bowl year out of him and still would be getting a first. That value is worth more than a 3rd round pick with a 60% bust rate.

 

[USMarineVet]

A team willing to trade away its future first round pick in this way is a little like the broke guy that has to get a pay day loan to pay his bills. He's paying a very high price to borrow that money, just like the team trading away the pick is paying a very high price to have the immediate gratification of that pick. The team willing to forego the pick this year is the payday lender. They can afford to defer the immediate payoff in exchange for a much greater payout the following year. You always want to be the lender in that relationship.

That's a very fiscally responsible way of putting it ThreeandOut. I may be needing a financial adviser. Do you have a card? LOL

 

[ThreeandOut]

That's a very fiscally responsible way of putting it ThreeandOut. I may be needing a financial adviser. Do you have a card? LOL

I think I read that in a Dave Ramsey book

 

[CowboyChris]

I will ask once again, who could possibly be there at #27 that someone would want to give you a future #1?

 

[USMarineVet]

A-You can always trade away future first round picks to move up if they are all equal. Having 2 first round picks will only get you a higher 1st round pick, which is pretty much the opposite of what you are saying.

B-Do you think you could get a 1st round pick for Martin right now? I do and Dallas got a Pro Bowl year out of him and still would be getting a first. That value is worth more than a 3rd round pick with a 60% bust rate.

I know exactly what I'm saying. You and I just don't see eye to eye. That's fine.

Do I think we could get a 1st round pick for Zack Martin? Yes. And more. Would I trade him? No. Why? Because he's a proven commodity that we struck gold on. But for every 1st round jackpot we've hit on, I can give you 5 that didn't pan out so well. Point being, drafting a player in the 1st is never a sure thing. Neither is that 7th rounder you took a shot on, who nobody felt would amount to much on draft day, but who winds up being a long-term starter for your team.

In other words, one in the hand is worth two in the bush. You're using Martin as an example to emphasize your point. In his case you would be correct. We would have missed out on him. But his case is a rarity and can't be justified due to the fact that if we had done that last year, at this point we have no idea what our return is on him as we haven't drafted yet nor seen those who we would have drafted play a single game. Monday Morning quarterback at it's finest with that point.

 

[Nightman]

A team willing to trade away its future first round pick in this way is a little like the broke guy that has to get a pay day loan to pay his bills. He's paying a very high price to borrow that money, just like the team trading away the pick is paying a very high price to have the immediate gratification of that pick. The team willing to forego the pick this year is the payday lender. They can afford to defer the immediate payoff in exchange for a much greater payout the following year. You always want to be the lender in that relationship.

That lender also has a ton of capital. They are not coming from equal places.

Maybe keeping his home or buying a car is more is more important to his long term security. He needs to get to work to keep his job and feed his family.

If Dallas adds a RB in the 1st that gains 1500 yds and scores 10 TDs they might win the Super Bowl and not one of us will get two thoughts to next years 1st, except Risen.

 

[ThreeandOut]

That lender also has a ton of capital. They are not coming from equal places.

Maybe keeping his home or buying a car is more is more important to his long term security. He needs to get to work to keep his job and feed his family.

If Dallas adds a RB in the 1st that gains 1500 yds and scores 10 TDs they might win the Super Bowl and not one of us will get two thoughts to next years 1st, except Risen.

If Dallas trades that 1st for next year's pick and takes a RB in the 2nd round that gains 1500 yds, scores 10 touchdowns and helps them when the Super Bowl, then no one will give two thoughts to trading this year's 1st, except you.

 

[USMarineVet]

I will ask once again, who could possibly be there at #27 that someone would want to give you a future #1?

There's no way for me to answer that. I'm no draft guru. I can't predict who's still gonna be on the board at 27.

How I CAN respond is by saying it would most likely be a team who just did some major spending in free agency and saw a player of their need fall to us. Perhaps a GM who sees his career on the line and needs to inject some positivity into his fan base by trying to end a playoff drought and secure his job. Maybe a team who's built to win now but is missing a certain piece that falls to us (who we don't covet) and feels it's worth the gamble to push all their chips in.

It all depends on how the board plays out and who is willing to pay that price at the expense of future years.

 

[Nightman]

If Dallas trades that 1st for next year's pick and takes a RB in the 2nd round that gains 1500 yds, scores 10 touchdowns and helps them when the Super Bowl, then no one will give two thoughts to trading this year's 1st, except you.

Why draft at all in the first if you can just get equal players later in the draft? It could just as easily be a CB or a DT or a LB taken in the 1st that makes a huge impact.

The point is Dallas is close and dealing away our best chance at improving on a 12-4 team for some future benefit seems too cute too me.

Of course every draft is different and how it plays out is what should dictate the moves. Maybe a trade back or trade out is the smart move. But maybe the smart move is a trade up.

 

[USMarineVet]

That lender also has a ton of capital. They are not coming from equal places.

Maybe keeping his home or buying a car is more is more important to his long term security. He needs to get to work to keep his job and feed his family.

If Dallas adds a RB in the 1st that gains 1500 yds and scores 10 TDs they might win the Super Bowl and not one of us will get two thoughts to next years 1st, except Risen.

And maybe sacrificing a little, so that he can buy his family a bigger home and a better car, without a huge mortgage, would please his wife and kids even more.

 

[USMarineVet]

Why draft at all in the first if you can just get equal players later in the draft? It could just as easily be a CB or a DT or a LB taken in the 1st that makes a huge impact.

The point is Dallas is close and dealing away our best chance at improving on a 12-4 team for some future benefit seems too cute too me.

Of course every draft is different and how it plays out is what should dictate the moves. Maybe a trade back or trade out is the smart move. But maybe the smart move is a trade up.

Very possible. I'm in no way advocating that we SHOULD do this. All I'm saying is if there isn't anyone we feel is worth a 1st round pick on, the move would be very sensible. On a few different levels.

 

[Nightman]

Very possible. I'm in no way advocating that we SHOULD do this. All I'm saying is if there isn't anyone we feel is worth a 1st round pick on, the move would be very sensible. On a few different levels.

I only like trading back if I can still get an equal player or the other team severely over pays. When you draft someone is not as important as who you draft.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Why draft at all in the first if you can just get equal players later in the draft? It could just as easily be a CB or a DT or a LB taken in the 1st that makes a huge impact.

The point is Dallas is close and dealing away our best chance at improving on a 12-4 team for some future benefit seems too cute too me.

Of course every draft is different and how it plays out is what should dictate the moves. Maybe a trade back or trade out is the smart move. But maybe the smart move is a trade up.

I was simply using the example you provided with a RB. The fact is there has historically been very good value at the RB position in the mid-to-late second round (e.g Lacy in Green Bay or Bell in Pittsburg). I think that will prove to be the case with the group of RB's projected to be available this year in that range.

I agree with you that the player available or within reach at 27 will likely dictate whether we use the pick, trade down or trade up. But if there are no players at 27 with a first round grade, history tells us that the Cowboys will attempt to trade down or trade the pick for future picks. They will only make the pick at 27 if those options are not available.

The track record for late first round picks providing immediate impact in year 1 is no sure thing. Our best chance at improving a 12-4 for next year will probably not come from that selection but from a move that has already been made...the Hardy signing.

 

[ThreeandOut]

New England has used this strategy of trading current year picks for higher future picks. It's a good way of maximizing draft value. You can argue that New England has not always made the best use of those picks, but they've done well enough with this approach to win another Super Bowl.

 

[USMarineVet]

New England has used this strategy of trading current year picks for higher future picks. It's a good way of maximizing draft value. You can argue that New England has not always made the best use of those picks, but they've done well enough with this approach to win another Super Bowl.

Right on the money. All you're doing is infusing younger, better talent. Providing your draft well, that is. And when you receive those extra 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks, whatever the case may be, your team is becoming younger and cheaper so when you need to strike in free agency you have the money to do so.

 

[manster4ever]

Now Nirvana's ultimately right. The scouting department will dictate what to do. If the Cowboys are picking in the 2nd round and somehow one of their 1st round graded players is there, it wouldn't make much sense to trade that pick for a 1st next year. Unless maybe you feel the team you're trading with is going to be bad this coming season and you can upgrade the pick.

This is why I LOVE the NFL Draft. It's my favorite sporting event on the planet and there isn't a close second. There are so many variables at play and nothing is right all the time. You can do the right thing and still have it turn out wrong.

Fact about doing right thing and have it turn out wrong... Happens every year