If the Running Back Issue Isn't a Problem

[Bluestang]

I'm curious if anyone has looked at the R/P ratio on 3rd/4th down in the last two seasons...

2013 - 26/159 R/P
2014 - 48/158 R/P

So we passed about the same number of times on 3rd/4th downs but also ran it 22 more times.

Here is something else about Murray:

2013
1st Down YPC = 5.4 (139 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 5.1 (64 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 2.9 (14 attempts)

2014
1st Down YPC = 4.9 (261 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 4.3 (100 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 4.7 (26 attempts)

Just looking at the stats could you really say that it was Murray? The Cowboys ran him 26 times on 3rd down which a little over half the total attempts, yet his 1st down and 2nd down numbers dwindled in one season with almost twice as many attempts.

IMHO, running the ball effectively is what matters and correlates to winning. Keeping the 3rd down distance manageable and being 2nd in the league in those conversions is the real story and it is what the Cowboys need to recreate this upcoming season to be successful.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

Randle is a product of this oline. He's not that special saved for a few big runs here and there. People say how great this oline and keep gushing about it. But yet they seem to bring up Randle's stats as IF Randle was a back destined for greatness.

Don't be fooled folks. Randle benefited much, much more from running behind this oline more so than Murray. He's nothing more than a backup in my opinion. Goes down when someone lays a finger on him and has off the field issues. I wouldn't trust him to carry the load at runningback and we shouldn't.

I do believe that is exactly what I was saying in my comments! I believe as do the Cowboys must believe at this point, that one of our current RB's or a committee will replace Murray. I also believe that they must already have in their minds who that RB will be.

 

[mattjames2010]

I do believe that is exactly what I was saying in my comments! I believe as do the Cowboys must believe at this point, that one of our current RB's or a committee will replace Murray. I also believe that they must already have in their minds who that RB will be.

I don't think this, I believe they think they can use two or even 3 evenly and equal the production of Murray.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

I don't think this, I believe they think they can use two or even 3 evenly and equal the production of Murray.

I did state "or committee"!

Either or I just believe they have a plan and if they can improve on it they will, if not their comfortable with sticking with the plan.

 

[Idgit]

I'm curious if anyone has looked at the R/P ratio on 3rd/4th down in the last two seasons...

2013 - 26/159 R/P
2014 - 48/158 R/P

So we passed about the same number of times on 3rd/4th downs but also ran it 22 more times.

Here is something else about Murray:

2013
1st Down YPC = 5.4 (139 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 5.1 (64 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 2.9 (14 attempts)

2014
1st Down YPC = 4.9 (261 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 4.3 (100 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 4.7 (26 attempts)

Just looking at the stats could you really say that it was Murray? The Cowboys ran him 26 times on 3rd down which a little over half the total attempts, yet his 1st down and 2nd down numbers dwindled in one season with almost twice as many attempts.

IMHO, running the ball effectively is what matters and correlates to winning. Keeping the 3rd down distance manageable and being 2nd in the league in those conversions is the real story and it is what the Cowboys need to recreate this upcoming season to be successful.

That's really interesting. Though it suggests that it's the 3rd down running game that improved the the improvement of the interior OL. Assuming we're typically running the ball on third downs in either short yardage or very long yardage situations, we're either seeing more success with short yardage running--which we know correlates to winning, or a higher tolerance for running the ball in low-probability passing situations--which improves passing effectiveness and also correlates with winning.

Any chance you have the success metrics handy for those third down conversions on those runs? Interested to know if we're converting more often in 2014 or not.

 

[Bluestang]

That's really interesting. Though it suggests that it's the 3rd down running game that improved the the improvement of the interior OL. Assuming we're typically running the ball on third downs in either short yardage or very long yardage situations, we're either seeing more success with short yardage running--which we know correlates to winning, or a higher tolerance for running the ball in low-probability passing situations--which improves passing effectiveness and also correlates with winning.

Any chance you have the success metrics handy for those third down conversions on those runs? Interested to know if we're converting more often in 2014 or not.

No I don't, Bob Sturm didn't break it down that far and that would have been useful in my post.

When I was looking at the numbers I just was surprised that we passed the ball just as many times as we did the prior season. I had just assumed that with an effective running game we weren't passing the ball as much to convert those first downs. Looking back at it, it makes sense because I saw alot of "empty" sets and recall those threads were people complained that we weren't converting those with Murray runs.

Dallas was 2nd in 3rd down conversions in 2014 compared to 2013's 25th ranking. I know that's just a piece of the overall pie, but we also had a decrease in avg distance to go in those 3rd downs. I don't believe we need to explain how much 3rd down distance impacts conversions...

JG has talked plenty of times about keeping the offense on schedule and that's something the offense did a really good job with and giving Tony the quick, easy reads to complete those 3rd down passes. With Murray the offense pretty much did what it wanted because the offense was on schedule a majority of the time. Murray's YPC numbers took a dip as the season wore on with good reason, but because they could impose their will it didn't have a negative effect or cause defenses to play them differently. All DCs game plan to stop the run first to get you in predictable pass situations. Opposing DCs couldn't stop us, even with the loaded fronts. It's hard to beat your opponent if they can run any play at you when they want. And that's my point, it doesn't matter who the runner is, as long as they can keep the offense on schedule and take advantage of the blocking upfront. Opposing DCs didn't play Randle or Dunbar any differently with the loaded fronts. That was pretty clear in @itsaboat 's video of Randle's runs.

It's probably why the FO is taking a wait and see approach with DMC, Randle, Dunbar and the rookie FAs they have. Someone just needs to get about 4 yds on 1st and 2nd downs and Romo will take care of the rest.

 

[Deep_South]

I've really enjoyed the back and forth in this thread. Good stuff - the Zone at its best.

 

[ConstantReboot]

I do believe that is exactly what I was saying in my comments! I believe as do the Cowboys must believe at this point, that one of our current RB's or a committee will replace Murray. I also believe that they must already have in their minds who that RB will be.

They might possibly do believe it. I just hope not and come to their senses that Randle isn't a back that can carry this team. If you have a Ferrari you don't let your Grandma drive it. You want someone that knows how to drive it fast.

Sorry but I'm not too hot on Randle to put my faith in. He makes a few big runs here and there but he's not consistent. His big runs happened because of the oline and not because he has good vision or a second gear like most good runningbacks do. He's an average player thats good as a change of pace back.

 

[ConstantReboot]

I'm curious if anyone has looked at the R/P ratio on 3rd/4th down in the last two seasons...

2013 - 26/159 R/P
2014 - 48/158 R/P

So we passed about the same number of times on 3rd/4th downs but also ran it 22 more times.

Here is something else about Murray:

2013
1st Down YPC = 5.4 (139 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 5.1 (64 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 2.9 (14 attempts)

2014
1st Down YPC = 4.9 (261 attempts)
2nd Down YPC = 4.3 (100 attempts)
3rd Down YPC = 4.7 (26 attempts)

Just looking at the stats could you really say that it was Murray? The Cowboys ran him 26 times on 3rd down which a little over half the total attempts, yet his 1st down and 2nd down numbers dwindled in one season with almost twice as many attempts.

IMHO, running the ball effectively is what matters and correlates to winning. Keeping the 3rd down distance manageable and being 2nd in the league in those conversions is the real story and it is what the Cowboys need to recreate this upcoming season to be successful.

Good post. If we can average around 5 yards everytime we do it on first time that is going to force teams to move a man in the box to defend the run. If we don't get that with the runningbacks we have now, were going to be in for a big disappointment.

I do hope Williams pans out. I agree with Sturn that McFadden is nothing more than a change of pace back. He'd be an excellent 3rd down back. As for Dunbar, I think its time to let him go. He's not used enough and just doesn't fit our scheme.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

I just hope not and come to their senses that Randle isn't a back that can carry this team.

Maybe it's not Randle their banking on. Could it be DMC. Could it be Williams? Could it be all three and throw Dunbar in there every now and then.

I just now we're fans without all the data and experience in talent evaluation that these guys have. That's why I'm not stressing it.

They must know something we don't or believe in someone we don't.

 

[Stash]

No I don't, Bob Sturm didn't break it down that far and that would have been useful in my post.

When I was looking at the numbers I just was surprised that we passed the ball just as many times as we did the prior season. I had just assumed that with an effective running game we weren't passing the ball as much to convert those first downs. Looking back at it, it makes sense because I saw alot of "empty" sets and recall those threads were people complained that we weren't converting those with Murray runs.

Dallas was 2nd in 3rd down conversions in 2014 compared to 2013's 25th ranking. I know that's just a piece of the overall pie, but we also had a decrease in avg distance to go in those 3rd downs. I don't believe we need to explain how much 3rd down distance impacts conversions...

JG has talked plenty of times about keeping the offense on schedule and that's something the offense did a really good job with and giving Tony the quick, easy reads to complete those 3rd down passes. With Murray the offense pretty much did what it wanted because the offense was on schedule a majority of the time. Murray's YPC numbers took a dip as the season wore on with good reason, but because they could impose their will it didn't have a negative effect or cause defenses to play them differently. All DCs game plan to stop the run first to get you in predictable pass situations. Opposing DCs couldn't stop us, even with the loaded fronts. It's hard to beat your opponent if they can run any play at you when they want. And that's my point, it doesn't matter who the runner is, as long as they can keep the offense on schedule and take advantage of the blocking upfront. Opposing DCs didn't play Randle or Dunbar any differently with the loaded fronts. That was pretty clear in @itsaboat 's video of Randle's runs.

It's probably why the FO is taking a wait and see approach with DMC, Randle, Dunbar and the rookie FAs they have. Someone just needs to get about 4 yds on 1st and 2nd downs and Romo will take care of the rest.

Excellent post.

As one of those who loudly complained (and still do!) about the lack of running calls on 3rd and short, I would be very interested to see any numbers that show the numbers of times they passed vs ran on 3rd down. I remember seeing very few on anything over a yard and instead, way too much of the maddening 'hey guys, we're passing!' empty sets.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Maybe it's not Randle their banking on. Could it be DMC. Could it be Williams? Could it be all three and throw Dunbar in there every now and then.

I just now we're fans without all the data and experience in talent evaluation that these guys have. That's why I'm not stressing it.

They must know something we don't or believe in someone we don't.

Well there is cause for concern and even Sturn has mentioned it on his blog. DMC and Williams has been riddled with injuries throughout their careers. So unless the FO can assure us that they won't be injured than I'm fine with that. Otherwise, we can end up with a season with just Randle and Dunbar - which doesn't drive any fear in the hearts of our enemies.

I'm sure the FO has something up their sleeve and I hope their not done yet. Unless the Cowboys are fully comfortable with Williams, I think the starting back is not yet on the team.

 

[dallasdave]

Well there is cause for concern and even Sturn has mentioned it on his blog. DMC and Williams has been riddled with injuries throughout their careers. So unless the FO can assure us that they won't be injured than I'm fine with that. Otherwise, we can end up with a season with just Randle and Dunbar - which doesn't drive any fear in the hearts of our enemies.

I'm sure the FO has something up their sleeve and I hope their not done yet. Unless the Cowboys are fully comfortable with Williams, I think the starting back is not yet on the team.

Look to the north, the answer is coming from the north.

 

[dfan32]

And I guess the point some of us are making, including the OP, is that we don't necessarily agree. There is some serious dice throwing going on here with a guy who has been useless for 3 years and 3 other guys who have never really done anything on this level.
(sorry the above is a quote o wilee dog)

I wouldn't say they are throwing dice. There is no doubt they had RB's on their draft board and they probably would have loved to get one unless of course the one they wanted was gone before they picked. They obviously did not have as high a value placed on the RB's they could have picked as some in here did. So they just played the board as they had set it up and didn't panic and grab a RB just for the sake of getting one.
.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Maybe it's not Randle their banking on. Could it be DMC. Could it be Williams? Could it be all three and throw Dunbar in there every now and then.

I just now we're fans without all the data and experience in talent evaluation that these guys have. That's why I'm not stressing it.

They must know something we don't or believe in someone we don't.

If this current group of backs can replace Murray, why was Murray offered $6 million a season? As you say, they must know something we don't because Randle is making $500,000 a year, McFadden signed for $0 guaranteed money and is a "free look" according to Spags, Williams is making $750,000 and Dunbar is making the most of anybody at just $1.5 million

So our entire current RB core makes less than $3 million dollars and the running game is said to be better or at least as effective as last season. This begs the question, after looking at this core making less than $3 million they turned around and offered Murray over $6 million a year, more than twice what this entire core is making.

So why would the team do that if they know something we don't or believe in someone we don't? They obviously didn't believe enough to offer Murray twice what everybody else was making combined, so they obviously didn't think Murray got all those yards simply due to the offensive line. The team obviously felt Murray was worth over twice what all the other RBs on the roster combined are worth because they offered him over twice what everybody else is making combined. They can say what they want in the media, but when it came time to putting dollars on the table we see which back they truly valued.

 

[waving monkey]

the doldrums have arrived

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

If this current group of backs can replace Murray, why was Murray offered $6 million a season? As you say, they must know something we don't because Randle is making $500,000 a year, McFadden signed for $0 guaranteed money and is a "free look" according to Spags, Williams is making $750,000 and Dunbar is making the most of anybody at just $1.5 million

So our entire current RB core makes less than $3 million dollars and the running game is said to be better or at least as effective as last season. This begs the question, after looking at this core making less than $3 million they turned around and offered Murray over $6 million a year, more than twice what this entire core is making.

So why would the team do that if they know something we don't or believe in someone we don't? They obviously didn't believe enough to offer Murray twice what everybody else was making combined, so they obviously didn't think Murray got all those yards simply due to the offensive line. The team obviously felt Murray was worth over twice what all the other RBs on the roster combined are worth because they offered him over twice what everybody else is making combined. They can say what they want in the media, but when it came time to putting dollars on the table we see which back they truly valued.

So then I ask you this. If they thought they couldn't replace Murray or at least have a plan, then why not just pay him what Philly offered? They could have easily found that cap space.

Look I'm very certain that they valued Myrray much more then probably every other back in the league other then maybe AP and wanted to keep Murray. You offer Murray twice as much as you do the other RB's combined because he is a proven commodity and you have to pay more for that.

But if you think you can replace him or come close to his production, then you but a cap on how much you spend. So by not matching Philly's offer says a lot about what the think powers their rushing game.