Interesting Emmitt Smith Fact

[T-RO]

It is relative. The comparison was Emmitt first 5 years vs 1st 11 years.

The 4.3 avg is about 2.2% of the 4.4 avg.

If Zeke averaged 5.0 in his first 5 years, then they would be OK if he ended his 2nd contract with and average of 4.89 (2.2% of 5.0).

Average per carry is a bit of an overrated stat.

It includes goalline and 3rd & short, 4th & short. Emmitt had a lot of goalline and short yardage play; whereas a guy like Barry Sanders often came out on short yardage plays.

Over the course of a season YPC is a decent stat. It’s a team sport so yeah... blocking. No stat is perfect.

Emmitt along with all the other top backs simply aren’t as fast after six seasons. Can’t hit the hole or round the corner like they once did. That and they just get beat down.

Same will be true with Zeke. And what evidence we have suggests he doesn’t take super care of himself

 

[xwalker]

Over the course of a season YPC is a decent stat. It’s a team sport so yeah... blocking. No stat is perfect.

Emmitt along with all the other top backs simply aren’t as fast after six seasons. Can’t hit the hole or round the corner like they once did. That and they just get beat down.

Same will be true with Zeke. And what evidence we have suggests he doesn’t take super care of himself

The point of your thread was to use Emmitt as a comparison to Zeke based on stats.

In reality the stats show that there was very little decline for Emmitt over the time period equal to 2 contracts for Zeke.

Zeke's work ethic and the general concept of RB decline is a separate topic.

I'm not arguing against RB decline and I'm not arguing in favor of resigning Zeke.

My point is that based on Emmitt's stats the concept of the OP was wrong.

Sometimes you just have to man-up and accept that you were wrong.

 

[xwalker]

I agree with a decline of 2.2% but I want to see his starting average in the first 5 years higher to come down from. If Zeke is giving is 4.4 then he better come cheap on his 2nd contract.

The 4.4 was Emmitt's number in a different era.

Zeke's average is 4.6 (5.1 in 2016 and 4.1 in 2017).

What people seem to be missing is just how little Emmitt did decline, especially considering that we know the OLine declined.

 

[T-RO]

The point of your thread was to use Emmitt as a comparison to Zeke based on stats.

In reality the stats show that there was very little decline for Emmitt over the time period equal to 2 contracts for Zeke.

Zeke's work ethic and the general concept of RB decline is a separate topic.

I'm not arguing against RB decline and I'm not arguing in favor of resigning Zeke.

My point is that based on Emmitt's stats the concept of the OP was wrong.

Sometimes you just have to man-up and accept that you were wrong.

Chuckle. Here’s the thing, X. I’m a database developer. I work with numbers professionally. I build graphs, charts and reports for companies. I help with projections.

So I might know a little about how stats work. If a company wants to do an A/B comparison...it’s not hard. You have two columns of disparate data.

In this A/B...Emmitt the young was .6 yards per carry better than the version who played later (post 6 years). All of Emmitt’s top seasons were accomplished in his first 6 years.

Numbers precede analysis. The narrative someone wants to attach to these is wide open and subjective. The numbers, however, aren’t.

Frankly your knowledge about A/B is...staying generous here...a bit lacking.

 

[AdamJT13]

No it doesn’t exist. It wasn’t tracked. Football Outsiders have talked about this many times. Sometimes individual teams would record this data, but they weren’t consistent.

Yes, it does exist. NFL games have been "tracked" using Gamebooks since before the NFL merger. The problem for most statistical databases is that the Gamebooks were not done on computers until the mid-1990s. Before that, they were done on typewriters, with the statistics tallied by hand. So anyone wanting to put those into a database would have to do it play by play by play, game by game by game, season by season by season. Football Outsiders has ALREADY DONE THIS going back to 1986 -- before Emmitt or Barry Sanders entered the league. If they wanted to, they could quickly find out how many times both players were tackled for a loss and for how many yards. Maybe they already know -- it's just not made available in a public database.

 

[AdamJT13]

In this A/B...Emmitt the young was .6 yards per carry better than the version who played later (post 6 years). All of Emmitt’s top seasons were accomplished in his first 6 years.

Of course, to get that much of a decline, you're including his 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th seasons -- when Emmitt averaged 3.7 YPC (and every single running back in history with at least 200 carries in his 12th-plus seasons is below 4 yards per carry). Even in seasons 8-11, Emmitt averaged 4.2 yards per carry -- just below his 4.3 average from his first three seasons.

 

[T-RO]

Of course, to get that much of a decline, you're including his 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th seasons -- when Emmitt averaged 3.7 YPC (and every single running back in history with at least 200 carries in his 12th-plus seasons is below 4 yards per carry). Even in seasons 8-11, Emmitt averaged 4.2 yards per carry -- just below his 4.3 average from his first three seasons.

I’ve given several comparisons in this thread, one that omitted his last two Arizona seasons.

Again, all four of Smith’s best seasons came within the first 6 seasons. If YPC is the main metric Emmitt never had a “great” season after year 6.

The point of this thread was never to diminish Emmitt. He clearly aged better than just about anyone, and he’s my favorite back. He happened to be exhibit A of a long list of backs I chronicled who declined.

There are a handful of backs like Sanders and Curtis Martin (2004!) who had great seasons later on, but they are very much the exception.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Yes, it does exist. NFL games have been "tracked" using Gamebooks since before the NFL merger. The problem for most statistical databases is that the Gamebooks were not done on computers until the mid-1990s. Before that, they were done on typewriters, with the statistics tallied by hand. So anyone wanting to put those into a database would have to do it play by play by play, game by game by game, season by season by season. Football Outsiders has ALREADY DONE THIS going back to 1986 -- before Emmitt or Barry Sanders entered the league. If they wanted to, they could quickly find out how many times both players were tackled for a loss and for how many yards. Maybe they already know -- it's just not made available in a public database.

That’s what I just said. And it took you long enough to finally google it so you’d have the slightest idea what I was talking about.
And again, no it does not exist. It was never officially tracked. FO sitting in their boxers transcribing old grainy VHS tapes, with tons of them missing, is not official data. The NFL has official scorers that do the job these days, and they take it very seriously (as FF players know).
Stop bumping this thread. It’s over.

 

[xwalker]

Chuckle. Here’s the thing, X. I’m a database developer. I work with numbers professionally. I build graphs, charts and reports for companies. I help with projections.

So I might know a little about how stats work. If a company wants to do an A/B comparison...it’s not hard. You have two columns of disparate data.

In this A/B...Emmitt the young was .6 yards per carry better than the version who played later (post 6 years). All of Emmitt’s top seasons were accomplished in his first 6 years.

Numbers precede analysis. The narrative someone wants to attach to these is wide open and subjective. The numbers, however, aren’t.

Where are you getting 0.6 yards ?

Those last 3 or so years have no relevance to Zeke and a 2nd contract.

Emmitt's years 6 to 11 average was 4.2 which is 0.2 below his first 5 years at 4.4 ypc.

What type of degree is attached to:
"I work with numbers professionally. I build graphs, charts and reports for companies. I help with projections."

I have a degree in Mathematics and Degrees in Engineering.

Statistical Analysis gets way more complicated than being good with Excel and mySQL, etc...

 

[blueblood70]

anyone questioning Emitts greatness needs a therapist..seriously delusional sure you can make an argument he wasn't the GOAT but hes top five and thats undeniable HOF undeniable, 0-2 without him SB and rushing title the test of the year undeniable.how many years has he been retired, hmm still number 1..undeniable

 

[T-RO]

Where are you getting 0.6 yards ?

Those last 3 or so years have no relevance to Zeke and a 2nd contract.

Emmitt's years 6 to 11 average was 4.2 which is 0.2 below his first 5 years at 4.4 ypc.

What type of degree is attached to:
"I work with numbers professionally. I build graphs, charts and reports for companies. I help with projections."

I have a degree in Mathematics and Degrees in Engineering.

Statistical Analysis gets way more complicated than being good with Excel and mySQL, etc...

You are quite eager to cherry pick Emmitt’s 6th year. I can’t let you do that. Skews the numbers, which you need to buttress a flimsy argument. I was consistent throughout my data w/various backs in using that as a cutoff. Some players didn’t have sufficient data...or had dramatic declines before they even got to their 6th year. Otherwise that was the cut off.

Zeke might still be good his 6th season, but historically speaking it’s overwhelmingly likely that he will have a big time drop somewhere shortly there-after.

You don’t give a guy an expensive long term contract at the point when he’s poised to diminish. I wouldn’t give ANY running back a big long term contract extension at that juncture...let alone one who doesn’t seem serious in taking care of himself.

 

[xwalker]

You are quite eager to cherry pick Emmitt’s 6th year. I can’t let you do that. Skews the numbers, which you need to buttress a flimsy argument. I was consistent throughout my data w/various backs in using that as a cutoff. Some players didn’t have sufficient data...or had dramatic declines before they even got to their 6th year. Otherwise that was the cut off.

Zeke might still be good his 6th season, but historically speaking it’s overwhelmingly likely that he will have a big time drop somewhere shortly there-after.

You don’t give a guy an expensive long term contract at the point when he’s poised to diminish. I wouldn’t give ANY running back a big long term contract extension at that juncture...let alone one who doesn’t seem serious in taking care of himself.

I'm not interested in anything except the concept of your original post as it relates to Zeke. The OP was about Emmitt's stats.

You said that that the Emmitt stats showed a big decline.

As the Emmitt stats relate to Zeke, you were wrong.

I didn't cherry pick anything.

I gave you the averages for years 1-5 and 6-11.

Zeke will be under contract for 5 years which is why the first group is years 1-5.

Zekes 2nd contract will not be more than 6 years which is why the 2nd group is years 6-11.

Your OP was based on Emmitt's stats and you were wrong.

The OP was not about other RBs or about Zeke's work ethic.

The OP was about Emmitt's stats relative to Zeke. You were wrong.

You included years 12, 13, 14 and 15 for Emmitt. Those have zero relevance to Zeke and a 2nd contract. Including those was wrong.

 

[xwalker]

Over the course of a season YPC is a decent stat. It’s a team sport so yeah... blocking. No stat is perfect.

My comment was not about blocking.

On 1st and goal, the most the RB can get is 1 yard. That screws up the average.

They often replaced Barry Sanders with a power back in situations such as 1st and goal. They never did that with Emmitt.

Even on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 in the middle of the field, the play is only designed to get the 1st down. A RB dive play is going to bring down the average despite the fact that picking up 2 yards on 4th and 1 was a great play by the RB.

The number of times a RB faces short yardage is somewhat random and could be skewed in favor of some RBs such as with the Barry Sanders example.

 

[T-RO]

I'm not interested in anything except the concept of your original post as it relates to Zeke. The OP was about Emmitt's stats.

You said that that the Emmitt stats showed a big decline.

As the Emmitt stats relate to Zeke, you were wrong.

I didn't cherry pick anything.

I gave you the averages for years 1-5 and 6-11.

Zeke will be under contract for 5 years which is why the first group is years 1-5.

Zekes 2nd contract will not be more than 6 years which is why the 2nd group is years 6-11.

Your OP was based on Emmitt's stats and you were wrong.

The OP was not about other RBs or about Zeke's work ethic.

The OP was about Emmitt's stats relative to Zeke. You were wrong.

You included years 12, 13, 14 and 15 for Emmitt. Those have zero relevance to Zeke and a 2nd contract. Including those was wrong.

You swam into deep waters and couldn’t find your way to shore. Sorry that I can’t help you with that.

From post #1 I was clear—as were the terms of the discussion. If you need to re-arrange the chairs and do gymnastics and still can’t manage anything convincing...oh well.

You seem quite eager...almost frantic to “best me”. Maybe next time.

 

[Jake]

Most of us know that running backs don’t age well. Six years of premium productivity is usually the best you can expect.
The one guy we think of as an exception is Emmitt. Damn, the guy played 15 seasons!
Out of curiosity I wanted to work up some numbers. How did Emmitt do after his first six years in comparison to the earlier part of his career?

1990-1995...4.5 yards per carry...First 6 seasons
1996-2004...3.9 yards per carry...Next 9 seasons

Somewhat misleading portrayal because:

1997 - 4.1 ypc
1998 - 4.2 ypc
1999 - 4.2 ypc
2000 - 4.1 ypc

His last 2 years as a Cardinal:

2003 - 2.8 ypc
2004 - 3.5 ypc

 

[T-RO]

Somewhat misleading portrayal because:

1997 - 4.1 ypc
1998 - 4.2 ypc
1999 - 4.2 ypc
2000 - 4.1 ypc

4.1 and 4.2 isn’t anything special. Lots of backs can give you that.

There were two phases of drop off for Emmitt
1. From greatness to pretty good — after his 6th season
2. From pretty good to spare - after his 11th season

Dallas was paying Emmitt—and playing him—as a great RB all the way until they cut him. Shouldn’t have.

 

[Jake]

There were two phases of drop off for Emmitt
1. From greatness to pretty good — after his 6th season
2. From pretty good to spare - after his 11th season

Not coincidentally, his supporting cast wasn't as good late in his career either.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

They often replaced Barry Sanders with a power back in situations such as 1st and goal. They never did that with Emmitt.

This is highly anecdotal. Sanders carried the ball more than all but 6 men who ever lived, in only 10 seasons. He was not “often replaced” for anything. And Emmitt was replaced at times in short yardage in his career. People remember what they want to remember.

 

[AdamJT13]

That’s what I just said. And it took you long enough to finally google it so you’d have the slightest idea what I was talking about.
And again, no it does not exist. It was never officially tracked. FO sitting in their boxers transcribing old grainy VHS tapes, with tons of them missing, is not official data. The NFL has official scorers that do the job these days, and they take it very seriously (as FF players know).
Stop bumping this thread. It’s over.

I didn't Google anything, and you have no idea what you are talking about.

The NFL has had official scorers for decades, and they have been tracking everything in Gamebooks for decades. Like I said, all of the information exists. It's just not available in a public database.

Oh, look at this. It's the Gamebook from Emmitt Smith's very first NFL game in 1990, which you claim doesn't exist.

And here's the play-by-play for Emmitt's first NFL carry, which you claim doesn't exist.

And look at that, it's the Gamebook from Barry Sanders' very first NFL game in 1989, which you claim doesn't exist.

And it even has the play-by-play from his first NFL series, complete with some hilarious commentary. But wait, this doesn't exist either, right?

Anything else you'd like to claim doesn't exist?

 

[Super_Kazuya]

I didn't Google anything, and you have no idea what you are talking about.

The NFL has had official scorers for decades, and they have been tracking everything in Gamebooks for decades. Like I said, all of the information exists. It's just not available in a public database.

Oh, look at this. It's the Gamebook from Emmitt Smith's very first NFL game in 1990, which you claim doesn't exist.

And here's the play-by-play for Emmitt's first NFL carry, which you claim doesn't exist.

And look at that, it's the Gamebook from Barry Sanders' very first NFL game in 1989, which you claim doesn't exist.

And it even has the play-by-play from his first NFL series, complete with some hilarious commentary. But wait, this doesn't exist either, right?

Anything else you'd like to claim doesn't exist?

Again, you didn’t know what a gamebook was until yesterday. I know what a gamebook is. I said the data doesn’t exist, and it doesn’t. There is no repository. It can’t be collected in an official manner by anyone, not even the NFL. FO has a relationship with the NFL. If the NFL had the data, they would give it to them. They don’t. That’s why FO has to desperately try to gather it. You seem to be saying that I don’t think the games were played, like their figments of the imagination or something. Of course stuff happened in the game, there’s data that could have been collected. But it wasn’t. You’re clueless.