ChuckA1
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You had me until the last paragraph. You bring up very good points regarding his possible thinking. And, there is no doubt Emmitt Smith was a very bright player and businessman who never got into off-field troubles like several of his teammates.I don't know much about this agent, or any of them for that matter, but the idea to hold out had to come from one of them. The other thing I speculate on, besides everything else I speculate on, was the effect of the option, which he had to know was coming.
In essence, he averages 6M a season for the next 2 while leading the league in carries and he's up over 1,500 at the end of that 5th year. As some of my more astute colleagues have pointed out, it's not the years but the carries and the build up of contact. I would guess Elliott has more contact and harder hits in one season than Emmitt would have in 2 with his uncanny ability to avoid the big hit.
We'll never know the real effect of these but the Lawrence signing as the biggest contract in Cowboys history, the rumors of the Prescott and Cooper signings for big numbers and that option activated with the possibility of 2 tags behind that and Elliott is looking at the first 7 years of his career gone and over 2,100 carries, 400 catches and countless blocks against bigger people to protect his QB that has the propensity to hold the ball too long.
All the while, he sees what Gurley and Bell are pulling down, Hey, he might be like Peterson and run well late into his career but Elliott makes a lot of contact with a lot of force behind it.
I could see a meeting with his agent and discussing the above and considering how much cap will be there when he is up and coming to this decision. He had to know it would not be popular and had never been done before so he's going to be the bad guy to a lot of people. He's too far in now to not go all the way.
I still fail to see any benefit of the holdout, especially the Cabo trip, return to Dallas and then the Cabo trip. It seems to me there are far smarter ways to get negotiated solutions and I squarely blame his agent.