Risen Star
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Metrics, game tape reveal that the Louisville QB is worth the hype
The risk/reward involved in investing a first-round pick in a quarterback is tremendous. Two years ago, famed NFL general manager Ernie Accorsi told ESPN's Colin Cowherd that no price is too high to pay if the quarterback turns out to be great, but, if he turned out to be a bust, the move could set a franchise back five to seven years.
Although none of the quarterbacks in this year's class is considered a can't-miss prospect, it seems this type of home run or strikeout dichotomy is making teams think twice about selecting Louisville Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, in particular, with one of the first choices in the 2014 NFL draft.
The puzzling part about this trepidation is there are an overwhelming number of factors pointing toward Bridgewater being as close to a sure thing QB prospect as can be found in any year's draft -- and, if he does slide, he could end up being a steal for the team that takes him.
Let's take a look at the case for using a first-round pick on Bridgewater.
The Parcells rules
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells came up with a list of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks.
1. Be a three-year starter
2. Be a senior in college
3. Graduate from college
4. Start 30 games
5. Win 23 games
6. Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
7. Tally a completion rate of 60 percent or higher
Different eras of passing can lead to reasonable questions about how the rules are applied, but the idea behind them is important: It should help you find a durable, accurate and self-motivated passer who can hit big plays while avoiding mistakes and who will finish what he starts.
It is extremely difficult to find first-round-caliber quarterbacks who meet all seven rules. In the BCS era (which encompasses the 1999 through 2013 NFL drafts), only nine players can make the claim to have done this (listed alphabetically): Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow.
More: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...014-nfl-draft-case-drafting-teddy-bridgewater
Bottom line
There is no guarantee Bridgewater will become an elite NFL passer, and factors such as his lean frame and subpar pro-day workout appear to be causing some significant reservations for teams considering drafting him. But this is a player who rates out very well in two of the most critical factors to quarterback success -- decision-making and performance under pressure -- and who possesses the experience and intangibles to succeed at the next level. History shows players of this caliber are very rare, and that scarcity should make Bridgewater one of the top picks in the 2014 NFL draft. If he slides down the board at all, he could develop into one of this year's draft steals.
The risk/reward involved in investing a first-round pick in a quarterback is tremendous. Two years ago, famed NFL general manager Ernie Accorsi told ESPN's Colin Cowherd that no price is too high to pay if the quarterback turns out to be great, but, if he turned out to be a bust, the move could set a franchise back five to seven years.
Although none of the quarterbacks in this year's class is considered a can't-miss prospect, it seems this type of home run or strikeout dichotomy is making teams think twice about selecting Louisville Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, in particular, with one of the first choices in the 2014 NFL draft.
The puzzling part about this trepidation is there are an overwhelming number of factors pointing toward Bridgewater being as close to a sure thing QB prospect as can be found in any year's draft -- and, if he does slide, he could end up being a steal for the team that takes him.
Let's take a look at the case for using a first-round pick on Bridgewater.
The Parcells rules
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells came up with a list of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks.
1. Be a three-year starter
2. Be a senior in college
3. Graduate from college
4. Start 30 games
5. Win 23 games
6. Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
7. Tally a completion rate of 60 percent or higher
Different eras of passing can lead to reasonable questions about how the rules are applied, but the idea behind them is important: It should help you find a durable, accurate and self-motivated passer who can hit big plays while avoiding mistakes and who will finish what he starts.
It is extremely difficult to find first-round-caliber quarterbacks who meet all seven rules. In the BCS era (which encompasses the 1999 through 2013 NFL drafts), only nine players can make the claim to have done this (listed alphabetically): Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow.
More: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...014-nfl-draft-case-drafting-teddy-bridgewater
Bottom line
There is no guarantee Bridgewater will become an elite NFL passer, and factors such as his lean frame and subpar pro-day workout appear to be causing some significant reservations for teams considering drafting him. But this is a player who rates out very well in two of the most critical factors to quarterback success -- decision-making and performance under pressure -- and who possesses the experience and intangibles to succeed at the next level. History shows players of this caliber are very rare, and that scarcity should make Bridgewater one of the top picks in the 2014 NFL draft. If he slides down the board at all, he could develop into one of this year's draft steals.
