KC Joyner: Big-name safeties vulnerable to deep ball

[AdamJT13]

Hamlin might not be a savior but he's gotta be better than Watkins or Davis.

No kidding. If Joyner's stats are anything like those from STATS LLC, Watkins and Davis would rank dead last by a longshot. And going from dead last to almost average (19th, according to Joyner) is a huge upgrade.

 

[AsthmaField]

Perhaps. But he was terrible in coverage in '04, leading all safeties in TD's allowed that year. So in 2 out of 3 years of his career he's led all safeties in TD's allowed. Not to mention he was so great in run support last season that he led the league in missed tackles.

I don't question his athletic ability and I'm sure that the weak talent around him hurt his play in 2006, but he's had good talent around him before and still performed poorly.

I'm not saying anything more than Taylor was hurt some in trying to cover for some teammates that were downright bad. I agree with you that he is overrated period, especially by Commanders fans, and makes some boneheaded plays - year in and year out.

The difference is that according to Joyner, Hamlin has been an excellent cover safety in every season of his career except last year, when he was coming off injury and he just turned 26 years old and didn't suffer an injury that would provide a drastic effect to his speed and quickness. If Hamlin was coming off a big injury like a torn ACL and/or was 30+ years old, I could see one logically deducing that there's a good chance that Hamlin's career as an effective cover safety is over with. But when a guy has been considered fantastic by Joyner in every year of his career besides last year, I think it's jumping the gun a bit to call him overrated.

I agree with you 100% here too. It seems like Joyner would make some statement about that when evaluating Hamlin's 06 season, but he never does.

At least he has said that while Hamlin won't fix our need for a coverage safety completely... he will be much better than what we had last season.

Personally, for what we gave for Hamlin for 1 year, I think he was a bargain... and if he plays very well, we can sign him long term.

 

[AdamJT13]

Terence Newman: He is considered much better than his Dallas teammate Anthony Henry, but Newman's 2006 overall YPA was only .4 yards higher than Henry's.

Notice that Joyner didn't say anything about where Newman ranked, only that his overall YPA was just a little better than Henry's. Newman's YPA was decent last season -- not as good as in 2005 -- but as usual, he had very few passes thrown at him and few catches and yards allowed. Henry, on the other hand, was one of the most-targeted cornerbacks in the league. That's what makes Newman much better than Henry.

It also should be noted that late last season, Joyner had Henry ranked as the most-underrated cornerback in the league.

He also ranked 57th in the missed pass percentage category, so luck was on his side.

Joyner ranked 98 cornerbacks last season. I don't know how many he ranked this season, but if it's about the same, then 57th would be just about average.

 

[AdamJT13]

So everyone thinks Joyner and his metrics are stupid when he says Newman is overrated ( posted on here not very long ago ) but not when he says Hamlin is just because he also thinks Reed and Taylor are as well.

Same arguments used in the Newman is overrated thread apply to Taylor, Reed and Hamlin ( personal opinion on who was supposed to cover who when handicapping players for one ).

His metrics are and will always be flawed because too much opinion and guesswork go into which stats should be included in the first place. Makes for an interesting read, but no one should attach any real meaning to his metrics.

His metrics ARE flawed, no matter who he's using them on. But his conclusions about Reed and Taylor are correct -- they both gave up a lot of catches, yards and/or touchdowns last season.

One flaw in his metrics is that he doesn't care how many times you were targeted. If you hold Steve Smith to one catch for 10 yards in a game when the Panthers threw 50 passes, Joyner's metrics would say you were completely terrible if that's the only pass thrown at you -- you'd have a 10.00 YPA, a 100.0 opponents' success rate and a 10.00 SYPA. Covering so well that the quarterback doesn't throw at you not only doesn't do you any good, it hurts your "metrics."

One way to correct that is to look at how many catches, yards, etc., you allow per pass play -- whether they throw at you or not. In those rankings, Newman did very well again last season, because he didn't allow very many catches or yards. In Joyner's metrics, though, he did merely OK because teams didn't throw at him.

Looking at the safeties, Reed and Taylor didn't do well either way -- in Joyner's per-target rankings, or in the per-pass-play rankings using the numbers from STATS. Out of the 64 safeties who played the most, they ranked 47th and 49th, respectively. And Taylor led the league in TD catches allowed. So there's nothing misleading about Joyner saying their pass defense wasn't as good as advertised last season.

 

[junk]

I know there are those who will say that the game broadcast tapes don't show everything

Well, now we know Joyner uses broadcast tapes for his metrics as opposed to game tapes.

I don't know how anyone could consider anything he does scientific. Broadcast tapes are terrible. You can't even see the secondary half the time, yet he is able to "scientifically" assess a player's performance.

Underrated safeties

Brian Russell

Russell had the second-best overall YPA of any coverage safety last year. He also placed in the top eight in YPA in both the direct coverage and deep assist coverage metrics. Add those to his No. 14 ranking in overall success percentage and it shows that the Seahawks might have found a gem in Russell.

Kevin Kaesviharn

Kaesviharn mostly played run safety with Cincinnati in 2006, but he likely will play coverage safety in New Orleans. The metrics say his transition to that position should be very smooth. Kaesviharn's 5.8 overall YPA was the sixth-best among run safeties. He also posted a 6.3 YPA on deep assist plays, a total that was the 10th best in that category. If these metrics are any indication, Kaesviharn might give Josh Bullocks a run for his money for the starting coverage safety spot.

Others:

Mike Minter:
Jarrad Page:
Nick Ferguson:

Kevin Kaesviharn? Well, the Bengals obviously got good safety play out of their 31st overall pass defense. Opposing QBs only completed 62.9% of their passes on Cincy.

Denver and KC are hardly shining examples of solid pass defense either. Teams were too busy running on Cleveland to bother passing.

A lot of folks wanted us to sign Dwight Smith as he was some supposed "upgrade".

Guess not.

:laugh2: Just because Joyner's "scientific metrics" told you so? Smith would have been a cheap upgrade. However, in hindsight, his off the field issues make him less desireable.

I did. And he would have been an upgrade. Significant one at that.

Agreed. For the price, he would have been a great addition. His off the field issues are a red flag though.

So everyone thinks Joyner and his metrics are stupid when he says Newman is overrated ( posted on here not very long ago ) but not when he says Hamlin is just because he also thinks Reed and Taylor are as well.

Same arguments used in the Newman is overrated thread apply to Taylor, Reed and Hamlin ( personal opinion on who was supposed to cover who when handicapping players for one ).

His metrics are and will always be flawed because too much opinion and guesswork go into which stats should be included in the first place. Makes for an interesting read, but no one should attach any real meaning to his metrics.

Exactly. But you'll get people proclaiming these "stats" as some sort of proof of something. They are so flawed that they can't hold any real value.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Again, why are people still taking what this computer geek says serious? To say Ed Reed is overrated is ridiculous.

 

[AdamJT13]

Broadcast tapes are terrible. You can't even see the secondary half the time, yet he is able to "scientifically" assess a player's performance.

Have you ever watched a game tape and tried to mark down who was defending on each and every pass? It's not that difficult for most passes. It's fairly easy for cornerbacks, and a little more difficult for safeties. It's certainly not as difficult as some people make it seem. And whether or not you always know who was SUPPOSED to be coverign someone, it's almost always easy to tell which defenders were closest.

 

[AdamJT13]

Again, why are people still taking what this computer geek says serious? To say Ed Reed is overrated is ridiculous.

Ed Reed gave up more catches, yards and touchdowns last season than you'd expect from someone who some people consider to be the best coverage safety.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

No kidding. If Joyner's stats are anything like those from STATS LLC, Watkins and Davis would rank dead last by a longshot. And going from dead last to almost average (19th, according to Joyner) is a huge upgrade.

Especially when Hamlin is also better against the run, more experienced, smarter, and a better leader -- and that's all compared against players who haven't had their skulls bashed in with a street sign in the previous 12 months.

And on Sean Taylor -- I don't think it's anything to do with his companion safety. I think it's just what Mr. Metric said about Reed. When the offense makes a few plays, he gets impatient, refuses to play within the scheme, and tries to force things by freelancing. You just can't do that, but Sean "What Do Disciplined Mean?" Taylor can't help himself.

 

[Eskimo]

The difference is that according to Joyner, Hamlin has been an excellent cover safety in every season of his career except last year, when he was coming off injury and he just turned 26 years old and didn't suffer an injury that would provide a drastic effect to his speed and quickness. If Hamlin was coming off a big injury like a torn ACL and/or was 30+ years old, I could see one logically deducing that there's a good chance that Hamlin's career as an effective cover safety is over with. But when a guy has been considered fantastic by Joyner in every year of his career besides last year, I think it's jumping the gun a bit to call him overrated.



YAKUZA

Wasn't Hamlin beaten into a fairly prolonged coma in 2005?

If so, one of the trademarks of this form of brain injury is slowed speed of information processing. So even if his body can move quickly once he decides to move, his brain may now be slow in deciding what to do.

It'll be interesting to see how he does this year. Like patients with musculoskeletal injuries, most brain injuries take about two years to plateau.

 

[TEK2000]

Have you ever watched a game tape and tried to mark down who was defending on each and every pass? It's not that difficult for most passes. It's fairly easy for cornerbacks, and a little more difficult for safeties. It's certainly not as difficult as some people make it seem. And whether or not you always know who was SUPPOSED to be coverign someone, it's almost always easy to tell which defenders were closest.

Are you sure about that Adam?

Based on the way some people talk on forums, you'd think that opposing coaches can't even breakdown film of a particular team. The only people capable of breaking down a play are the playcallers/players because they know the coverages and assignments... outsiders clearly can't decipher it based on film review.

Its pretty stupid to say that his research doesn't offer any real value.

What do people think that COACHES/SCOUTS do when they are watching film? I'd venture to say that they track plays for players similarly to what STATS, inc., FO.com, and KC Joyner do.
Hell, they even have video software that helps them do just that.

 

[AdamJT13]

Wasn't Hamlin beaten into a fairly prolonged coma in 2005?

No, Hamlin never was in a coma. He was conscious after the attack -- or at least semi-conscious, because he talked to police at the scene. He was out of the hospital less than a week later.

 

[CowboyMike]

Hamlin might not be a savior but he's gotta be better than Watkins or Davis.
If he doesn't workout I'd still be happy seeing Henry move to FS.

Well you also have to consider that Hamlin was actually compared to Watkins and Davis in this study. They were included in this assessment, and he came out being worse than them...

I'm not saying I agree with Joyner. The Ed Reed thing is ridiculous. But some of his stuff has merit, because Sean Taylor was horrible in coverage last year, and Dante Hall is overrated. Sometimes, he does make sense.

 

[AdamJT13]

Well you also have to consider that Hamlin was actually compared to Watkins and Davis in this study. They were included in this assessment, and he came out being worse than them.

What? Joyner never mentioned where Watkins and Davis were ranked. Hamlin ranked 19th in his metrics. And if Joyner's raw stats are anywhere close to those kept by STATS, Watkins and Davis were ranked right at the bottom of the league.

Remember, the article is "overrated," not "worst."

 

[CowboyMike]

What? Joyner never mentioned where Watkins and Davis were ranked. Hamlin ranked 19th in his metrics. And if Joyner's raw stats are anywhere close to those kept by STATS, Watkins and Davis were ranked right at the bottom of the league.

Remember, the article is "overrated," not "worst."

Ah, yeah you're probably right. I took the article the wrong way. I was making "overrated" mean "worst". I stand corrected.

*Bows down to AdamJT*

 

[junk]

Have you ever watched a game tape and tried to mark down who was defending on each and every pass? It's not that difficult for most passes. It's fairly easy for cornerbacks, and a little more difficult for safeties. It's certainly not as difficult as some people make it seem.

A game tape? Or a broadcast game tape? Two entirely different things. I'd imagine you could get relatively close with an actual game tape, but with a broadcast tape, you won't even be able to tell what coverage the safeties are in half the time.

The camera focuses on the quarterback until the ball is away. A lot can happen in the secondary while the camera shows the QB dropping back. Just look at replay breakdowns (when they actually do them). Only then can you get a real feel for what happened on a particular play.

And whether or not you always know who was SUPPOSED to be coverign someone, it's almost always easy to tell which defenders were closest.

And that is a "scientific" approach to determining coverage metrics? He was closest therefore it was his blown coverage?

Its guess work at best.

 

[junk]

Are you sure about that Adam?

Based on the way some people talk on forums, you'd think that opposing coaches can't even breakdown film of a particular team. The only people capable of breaking down a play are the playcallers/players because they know the coverages and assignments... outsiders clearly can't decipher it based on film review.

KC Joyner watching broadcast tapes on his couch certainly can't do it with any degree of accuracy.

Its pretty stupid to say that his research doesn't offer any real value.

Not at all. Even AdamJT13 has pointed out some of flaws in Joyner's metrics.

Any type of guess work isn't scientific. If you are going to assign a statistical measure to some body of work, you can't guess or be wrong on a large percentage of the statistics.

What do people think that COACHES/SCOUTS do when they are watching film? I'd venture to say that they track plays for players similarly to what STATS, inc., FO.com, and KC Joyner do.
Hell, they even have video software that helps them do just that.

I bet they do as well. But they have video software, actual game tape (not broadcast tapes) and a knowledge of the game above the high school level.

KC Joyner used to work in the telecom industry. How does that qualify him?

People want to blow off coverages as simple things, but there are reasons teams spend months studying their coverage schemes for a season.

Even rudimentary high school coverages have a large number of variances depending upon the offensive formation. I'm supposed to believe that someone on their couch, watching a game broadcast, is able to accurately determine coverage and responsibility?

So, based off of Joyner's work, I'd have to assume you wouldn't want Ed Reed as the starting free safety next year? Rather have Kevin Kaesviharn?

 

[CrazyCowboy]

No Roy at all....whaz up?

 

[Kilyin]

The way some people around here talk you would think Ed Reed is Jesus wearing cleats.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Ed Reed gave up more catches, yards and touchdowns last season than you'd expect from someone who some people consider to be the best coverage safety.

Ed Reed gambles more often so I don't care to hear all of that... He's been defensive player of the year and All Pro for a while now so the argument is pointless to me...

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned...