KC Joyner: Big-name safeties vulnerable to deep ball

[ThreeSportStar80]

The way some people around here talk you would think Ed Reed is Jesus wearing cleats.

IF he was wearing a Cowboys jersey, folks on here would be goo goo gaa gaa over the guy, so what's your point?

 

[WoodysGirl]

Ed Reed gambles more often so I don't care to hear all of that... He's been defensive player of the year and All Pro for a while now so the argument is pointless to me...

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned...

No one is saying he isn't good. The point Adam is making is that his numbers aren't as good as one would expect from a former All Pro, DPOY. And maybe that gambling aspect of his is a direct cause of that.

BTW, is Ed Reed your client or something? You seem awfully touchy about him.

 

[joseephuss]

Ed Reed gambles more often so I don't care to hear all of that... He's been defensive player of the year and All Pro for a while now so the argument is pointless to me...

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned...

Ed Reed is very good, but he had a bad year last season. Base him on his entire career for all the good he has done and then look at last year and I can see where he is over rated. He did not live up to the high standard he set in previous years. That probably is not a good predictor for what may happen this season. I think he will be good again.

 

[TEK2000]

KC Joyner watching broadcast tapes on his couch certainly can't do it with any degree of accuracy.

I guess there is no reason for any of us to discuss football games by your logic. None of us can be accurate with any breakdown of any play based on the broadcast tapes apparently.

Not at all. Even AdamJT13 has pointed out some of flaws in Joyner's metrics.

You said his info is useless and doesn't provide anything useful at all.

Adam pointed out flaws in Joyner's RANKINGS in the way he formulates a players success. There will always be a certain degree of inaccuracy with breaking down football, but for the most part, you can accurately figure out who is responsible for what on a given play.

Any type of guess work isn't scientific. If you are going to assign a statistical measure to some body of work, you can't guess or be wrong on a large percentage of the statistics.

Where is your evidence that he is wrong on a large percentage of statistics?

I bet they do as well. But they have video software, actual game tape (not broadcast tapes) and a knowledge of the game above the high school level.

KC Joyner used to work in the telecom industry. How does that qualify him?

People want to blow off coverages as simple things, but there are reasons teams spend months studying their coverage schemes for a season.

Even rudimentary high school coverages have a large number of variances depending upon the offensive formation. I'm supposed to believe that someone on their couch, watching a game broadcast, is able to accurately determine coverage and responsibility?

So, based off of Joyner's work, I'd have to assume you wouldn't want Ed Reed as the starting free safety next year? Rather have Kevin Kaesviharn?

So, basically your contention is that people can't learn anymore about football after they've stopped playing it in high school? Yeah, that makes sense.

What industry do you work in? If its not football, then you're saying you don't have the knowledge to be posting any opinions at all about football related matters.

I'm not saying its some simple thing... I'm saying its not as hard as some, like you, are making it out to be. You're acting like the only people that can look at a play AFTER its happened and know what happened are the people that called the plays or coaches that, apparently, need to spend MONTHS breaking down an opponents' scheme.

You're at home sitting on your couch too watching the game broadcast. You ever chime in on a discussion about what happened on a particular play? If so, how is it that you're able to determine responsibilities on the play to form your opinion of what happened... I mean, anyone sitting on their couch can't determine anything at all about a play that's happened. We're all football idiots sitting on our couches watching a game we can't possibly understand in the slightest.


Your assumption would be wrong. KC is not saying Ed Reed is not a good safety, what he's saying is that he's not this never make a mistake or give up a catch safety that many people act like he is.

 

[pancakeman]

No kidding. If Joyner's stats are anything like those from STATS LLC, Watkins and Davis would rank dead last by a longshot. And going from dead last to almost average (19th, according to Joyner) is a huge upgrade.

Not to mention: how many of safeties numbers 1 through 18 were available in the offseason? If none (as I suspect), no reason for Joyner to get snarky about the Cowboys' move to get Hamlin.

 

[Alexander]

Ed Reed is very good, but he had a bad year last season. Base him on his entire career for all the good he has done and then look at last year and I can see where he is over rated. He did not live up to the high standard he set in previous years. That probably is not a good predictor for what may happen this season. I think he will be good again.

He also had to work with a rookie low round draft choice in Dawan Landry. I expect improvement from him as Landry gets more experience as he probably will be a very good running mate.

 

[Alexander]

Not to mention: how many of safeties numbers 1 through 18 were available in the offseason? If none (as I suspect), no reason for Joyner to get snarky about the Cowboys' move to get Hamlin.

Given his own "metrics" and how Keith Davis ranked, he should be applauding the move.

 

[WoodysGirl]

He also had to work with a rookie low round draft choice in Dawan Landry. I expect improvement from him as Landry gets more experience as he probably will be a very good running mate.

Ok for some reason that tickled me, cuz I can't tell whether you are serious or not. Change it up and I'd think you were talking about Roy W. and Pat Watkins.

 

[Alexander]

Ok for some reason that tickled me, cuz I can't tell whether you are serious or not. Change it up and I'd think you were talking about Roy W. and Pat Watkins.

Glad you brought it up, but you see how the excuse can be made for Reed.

All I can say is if you are treading into the dangerous Roy versus Reed waters, the excuses Cowboy fans make for Roy Williams' "metrics" and challenges in coverage can be applied to others as well. And one has the collateral of an NFL Defensive Player of the Year award.

As much as Williams has been hurt by the likes of Tony Dixon, Lynn Scott, Keith Davis and Patrick Watkins, Reed has worked with talents like Landry, Chad Williams and Will Demps.

 

[theogt]

What really should be taken from this entire thread is that every safety gets beat deep. Pretty often, it seems, at that.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Glad you brought it up, but you see how the excuse can be made for Reed.

All I can say is if you are treading into the dangerous Roy versus Reed waters, the excuses Cowboy fans make for Roy Williams' "metrics" and challenges in coverage can be applied to others as well. And one has the collateral of an NFL Defensive Player of the Year award.

As much as Williams has been hurt by the likes of Tony Dixon, Lynn Scott, Keith Davis and Patrick Watkins, Reed has worked with talents like Landry, Chad Williams and Will Demps.

I actually agree with you. It can be reasonably applied that Roy, like all safeties, can be beat. It's just more noticeable because Roy plays on the Cowboys. It's not his strength, but he's not majoring in suckitude either.

When the 'boys got knocked out of the playoffs, it allowed fans to actually follow other teams. What I noticed is all the big time safeties can get beat, even the great Ed Reed. They all get caught out of position. They all make some bad plays. Sometimes that's forgotten in the Roy sucks mantra.

 

[Alexander]

I actually agree with you. It can be reasonably applied that Roy, like all safeties, can be beat. It's just more noticeable because Roy plays on the Cowboys. It's not his strength, but he's majoring in suckitude either.

When the 'boys got knocked out of the playoffs, it allowed fans to actually follow other teams. What I noticed is all the big time safeties can get beat, even the great Ed Reed. They all get caught out of position. They all make some bad plays. Sometimes that's forgotten in the Roy sucks mantra.

"Some".

I think if everyone is truly honest with themselves and stops thinking in extremes, they realize this applies to every player. Even the most ardent "hater" cannot deny it.

But when the "some" becomes more frequent and almost chronic (as Williams was like late in the year), then it becomes a problem.

 

[WoodysGirl]

"Some".

I think if everyone is truly honest with themselves and stops thinking in extremes, they realize this applies to every player. Even the most ardent "hater" cannot deny it.

Agreed.

But when the "some" becomes more frequent and almost chronic (as Williams was like late in the year), then it becomes a problem.

There was alot of chronic breakdowns towards the end of the year. There are very few guys on the defense who aren't eligible for under the bus duties.

Again, I attribute it to being more noticeable because that's who we watch every Sunday, if at all possible. We analyze every twitch a 'boys player makes in a game. So unless you're paid to do it, I just don't see many of us analyzing players on other teams with the same thoroughness.

 

[firehawk350]

I'm not saying anything more than Taylor was hurt some in trying to cover for some teammates that were downright bad. I agree with you that he is overrated period, especially by Commanders fans, and makes some boneheaded plays - year in and year out.

Well just a couple of thoughts on everything I've read here.

AdamJT13 always parades Stats LLC like it's the God-given word on football and it might be great, but does anyone know how they get their stats? Do they have access to the real game footage and then, how objective is their assigning of responsibility? Especially in zone coverage. For example, if somebody catches the ball in the seam on a cover-2, whose fault is that?

And TO made me think of another hole in the stats. We all know he's great after the catch... So let's say he takes a 5 yard slant 50 yards to the house. I think it's reasonable to think that more then just the CB is at fault since he should have gotten tackled by at least the 2 safeties. Surely the CB can't be at fault for them all since you should expect at least 2 other players to make the tackle. So does the blame fall to the other players, and then how much so? Do you divide it up equally or come up with, this is how many yards he ran before he made another person miss or do you caulk it up in the running stat category as missed tackles. Then, how do you reconcile the differences between the stats you have and the stats more widely available or do you still have it all the CB's fault? And if it's the CB's fault, don't you think it's not a very good coverage metric since that pass would count as much towards the metric as somebody just burning the CB on a double move and catching the ball in the endzone? I mean, one is because the CB can't tackle well and the other one is just he can't cover well.

How about if, during a blitz, a receiver finds a hole in the zone and catches it there? The play says that there will be holes and we're gambling so we have to give it to them if it happens. Will it be the closest defender's fault (even though it's not his responsibility) or will it just go into the oblivion? Then, again, how do you reconcile the stats?

And Taylor... He wasn't good in coverage but the whole coverage schemes were just jacked up. If you saw any of the games, you'd know what I'm talking about. 8 yard cushions and all kinds of insanity. Taylor was hurt, like everyone else, by the general disarray of the defense. But he both contributed to and was hurt by it. He is, however, a game-changing safety. No matter how you want to rank him, he has, on multiple occasions, changed the outcome of the game. The second Dallas game, the Carolina game and last year's 2nd Eagles game all jump into mind immediately.

 

[Alexander]

And Taylor... He wasn't good in coverage but the whole coverage schemes were just jacked up. If you saw any of the games, you'd know what I'm talking about. 8 yard cushions and all kinds of insanity. Taylor was hurt, like everyone else, by the general disarray of the defense. But he both contributed to and was hurt by it. He is, however, a game-changing safety. No matter how you want to rank him, he has, on multiple occasions, changed the outcome of the game. The second Dallas game, the Carolina game and last year's 2nd Eagles game all jump into mind immediately.

Taylor does make plays. Both positive and negative, just like Williams.

But if Williams had his habit of idiotic penalties, I would go completely mad.

That is the equalizer. He has actually lost games for Washington with his mental mistakes in that regard.

 

[firehawk350]

Taylor does make plays. Both positive and negative, just like Williams.

But if Williams had his habit of idiotic penalties, I would go completely mad.

That is the equalizer. He has actually lost games for Washington with his mental mistakes in that regard.

Not all of which are deserved though. For example, there was a play in the second NYG game where he was covering a receiver deep (I think it was Tim Carter, but don't quote me on it) and he was looking around for the ball and barely touched the receiver and the receiver hit the dirt completely on purpose and a def pass interference was called and Taylor was penalized like 40 yards on that, even though the ball was completely outta bounds on the play.

 

[Hostile]

What really should be taken from this entire thread is that every safety gets beat deep.

We've reached the point of ridiculous when we expect every player to never get beat. It has never been done in NFL history and it never will be done.

No matter how good a Safety or CB is, the WR he is facing can turn him the wrong way, have a better angle, just be better, or have fortune smiling on him.

There will be those who say that what they object to is the time after time it happens aspect to this. Yeah it does. Not just to our players. It happens all over the NFL and always has. It always will.

Players have weaknesses. Holy shocking news Batman.

Did you know man walked on the moon?

 

[TEK2000]

And TO made me think of another hole in the stats. We all know he's great after the catch... So let's say he takes a 5 yard slant 50 yards to the house. I think it's reasonable to think that more then just the CB is at fault since he should have gotten tackled by at least the 2 safeties. Surely the CB can't be at fault for them all since you should expect at least 2 other players to make the tackle. So does the blame fall to the other players, and then how much so? Do you divide it up equally or come up with, this is how many yards he ran before he made another person miss or do you caulk it up in the running stat category as missed tackles. Then, how do you reconcile the differences between the stats you have and the stats more widely available or do you still have it all the CB's fault? And if it's the CB's fault, don't you think it's not a very good coverage metric since that pass would count as much towards the metric as somebody just burning the CB on a double move and catching the ball in the endzone? I mean, one is because the CB can't tackle well and the other one is just he can't cover well.

Either scenario you pointed out is still the result of the CB allowing a reception.

If the safeties aren't responsible for covering a particular player... how can you assign blame to them for the catch being made? The only thing you could assign to them is if they managed to get to the reciever after he caught it and didn't bring him down... equalling a missed tackle.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

No one is saying he isn't good. The point Adam is making is that his numbers aren't as good as one would expect from a former All Pro, DPOY. And maybe that gambling aspect of his is a direct cause of that.

BTW, is Ed Reed your client or something? You seem awfully touchy about him.

Actually I know a few of those former Univ. Miami guys, I helped organize a few functions...
:wink2:
I just think he's a better player than Roy Williams and wish to god Dallas had drafted him back in 2002.

 

[firehawk350]

Either scenario you pointed out is still the result of the CB allowing a reception.

If the safeties aren't responsible for covering a particular player... how can you assign blame to them for the catch being made? The only thing you could assign to them is if they managed to get to the reciever after he caught it and didn't bring him down... equalling a missed tackle.

It's still the result of the CB allowing the reception. But does missing a tackle on a 5 yard slant (which is considerably more difficult to guard then a 50 yard fly) mean they are bad in coverage, as a 50 yard TD pass given up would suggest?

I could understand if it was a 35 yard post and the CB gave up the last 15 by not being fast enough or something, but a 5 yard slant and 45 yards after the catch is a bit different. How about a screen where the CB is blocked? Sure, it's his man, but he's got a 250 lb TE on him at the time...