Kyle Pitts vs Patrick Surtain: Who SHOULD be the Pick | Shan & RJ

[This is Our Year]

I don’t see any scenario where Pitts is on the board for us. He’s basically the most talked about prospect outside of the QBs at this point.

 

[Bizwah]

I think it all depends on our draft board. I'm a proponent in taking the BPA. The draft is about acquiring talent. I wish we were more aggressive in FA, so we could really do the draft correctly. To build a team right you have to be willing to be somewhat patient. We aren't going to build a great defense over the course of one draft.

I guess I'm rambling...back to my original point.

The fact that there are at least five QBs (Davis is gaining momentum) worthy of being selected in the first round, really puts us in a position to possibly get one of top players on our draft board. I'm not going to pretend to know how we've ranked the player, but I think it's safe to assume that Lawrence is probably number one overall. I am guessing that Sewell and Pitts round out the top three.

If somehow one of the top three players is on our board, you have to take him at ten. It's not every draft you select in the top ten. It's not every draft you get an opportunity to select one of the top three players on your entire board. Let's say Pitts is number two on our board, and he somehow lands in our laps at ten. Would you really want to pass on him to select the top defensive player on your board? What if Surtain is the 10th ranked overall prospect, Parsons is the ninth overall prospect, and Horn is something like the 12th overall prospect.

Are you going to take the 9th-12th best player over your 2nd best player just because it's a bigger need? I'm not....I'm going to take the second best overall player in the draft.

Now, if you are telling me that Pitts isn't the second best player....let's say he's number six or seven. Let's say we still have Parsons at nine, Surtain as the tenth best player, and Horn still 12th. I say that's close enough to have need trump BPA.

But, as many have said, it's a moot point. Pitts will, in all likelihood, not be there. I am against us using draft capital to move up to take him.

 

[Dalmations202]

You have no idea what the team will look like in a couple years, so how can you tell which one will "raise the team play" more than the other, except by having more talent? If you're evaluating just on the first year, well, the Cowboys did go 13-3 that season.

I don't know what the team will look like in a couple years. I do know in general by the contracts who will probably be there. If you don't know where your own team is, you don't know what to do to raise the grade.

Let's say you grade WR1 as an 80, and you can 'get John Doe who is an 82, and is the highest rated player on your board. Also you have 1T who is on his last year contract, grades at a 55, and you can get a James Doe who is a 75. James Doe is a far better player to help the team. John Doe is the higher rated by quite a bit. But what I do know is that James Doe raises the overall grade of the team by 20 where John Doe raises the team grade by 2. James Doe is a 10 times better choice for the team.

If you start looking at the overall team instead of individual players you find that while BPA is a great thought, it isn't everything to building a team.

Lets say you are correct and Pitts is the 80 rated TE. What is your rating of the current TE you have?
Surtain is rated ??? What is the CB that he will be replacing rated at ??

And the bottom line is this is a team sport, not an individual one, and you want the team grade at its highest. The name of this game is upgrade, and that is what you should always be trying to do -- upgrade at each position, and make sure the backups are not too big a drop off if they have to play.

As far as Zeke/Ramsey --- Zeke was an upgrade, but Ramsey would have been a much bigger upgrade for the team. I think Dallas either forgets this, or can't evaluate their own team and overvalue their own players.

 

[quickccc]

Your timeline is off. Murray left the Cowboys after '14. They drafted Zeke in '16 with McFadden and Morris in the fold.

Not at all " off line "
The Cowboys could have re-signed Murray to a long term .even after a superlative 1800 yard rushing single season.
as i made mention before, the best statistical rushing year in Cowboys history, yet they allowed him to
walk off as a unrestricted FA ...and didnt flinch that Murray went to East rvials Philly Eagles.

McFadden didn't run for 1800 club record like Murray - DMC gave them a very modest 1089 yds in a Romo out- IR season (which led to a lousy losing record 4th overall) but the team knew he wasn't gonna be THE long time answer.

 

[Zekeats]

Our problems aren't a CB2, they are in the middle of that defense. Any fan watching the last 5 seasons knows this.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I don't know what the team will look like in a couple years. I do know in general by the contracts who will probably be there. If you don't know where your own team is, you don't know what to do to raise the grade.

Let's say you grade WR1 as an 80, and you can 'get John Doe who is an 82, and is the highest rated player on your board. Also you have 1T who is on his last year contract, grades at a 55, and you can get a James Doe who is a 75. James Doe is a far better player to help the team. John Doe is the higher rated by quite a bit. But what I do know is that James Doe raises the overall grade of the team by 20 where John Doe raises the team grade by 2. James Doe is a 10 times better choice for the team.

If you start looking at the overall team instead of individual players you find that while BPA is a great thought, it isn't everything to building a team.

Lets say you are correct and Pitts is the 80 rated TE. What is your rating of the current TE you have?
Surtain is rated ??? What is the CB that he will be replacing rated at ??

And the bottom line is this is a team sport, not an individual one, and you want the team grade at its highest. The name of this game is upgrade, and that is what you should always be trying to do -- upgrade at each position, and make sure the backups are not too big a drop off if they have to play.

As far as Zeke/Ramsey --- Zeke was an upgrade, but Ramsey would have been a much bigger upgrade for the team. I think Dallas either forgets this, or can't evaluate their own team and overvalue their own players.

Your logic is completely flawed. A single draft pick isn't the only way to upgrade your team and you can't think of it that way. First of all, if you have that 80-rated WR1 and draft the 82-rated WR, you now have an 82-rated WR1 and an 80-rated WR2 and your WR2 has become WR3 and the effect goes out from there. Second, you have other ways to upgrade those other positions--other draft picks and free agency. There's no way that James Doe, even in your scenario, is a "10 times better choice for the team." The worse your incumbent is, the easier it is to upgrade him. By your logic, if you have the worst, say, safety in the league, you should take a safety with your first pick, even if the guy you're drafting is ordinary, because the upgrade is bigger than any other upgrade you can make with that pick. But that's nuts; you should be able to upgrade that safety in a variety of different ways. That first draft pick is for getting the kind of talent you can't get any other way.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Not at all " off line "
The Cowboys could have re-signed Murray to a long term .even after a superlative 1800 yard rushing single season.
as i made mention before, the best statistical rushing year in Cowboys history, yet they allowed him to
walk off as a unrestricted FA ...and didnt flinch that Murray went to East rvials Philly Eagles.

Murray had the best rushing year in Cowboys history BECAUSE the Cowboys didn't think he was special. That's why they ran him into the ground with 392 carries. They knew they had no intention of re-signing him, so they didn't bother protecting their asset. And sure enough, he was out of the league in 3 years.

McFadden didn't run for 1800 club record like Murray - DMC gave them a very modest 1089 yds in a Romo out- IR season (which led to a lousy losing record 4th overall) but the team knew he wasn't gonna be THE long time answer.

You said, "In the Cowboys eyes, we took a dynamic RB (at least he was his first 2 years) over what the Cowboys club viewed as a decent RB (Murray)." But Murray had already been gone a year by then.

 

[kskboys]

I think it all depends on our draft board. I'm a proponent in taking the BPA. The draft is about acquiring talent. I wish we were more aggressive in FA, so we could really do the draft correctly. To build a team right you have to be willing to be somewhat patient. We aren't going to build a great defense over the course of one draft.

I guess I'm rambling...back to my original point.

The fact that there are at least five QBs (Davis is gaining momentum) worthy of being selected in the first round, really puts us in a position to possibly get one of top players on our draft board. I'm not going to pretend to know how we've ranked the player, but I think it's safe to assume that Lawrence is probably number one overall. I am guessing that Sewell and Pitts round out the top three.

If somehow one of the top three players is on our board, you have to take him at ten. It's not every draft you select in the top ten. It's not every draft you get an opportunity to select one of the top three players on your entire board. Let's say Pitts is number two on our board, and he somehow lands in our laps at ten. Would you really want to pass on him to select the top defensive player on your board? What if Surtain is the 10th ranked overall prospect, Parsons is the ninth overall prospect, and Horn is something like the 12th overall prospect.

Are you going to take the 9th-12th best player over your 2nd best player just because it's a bigger need? I'm not....I'm going to take the second best overall player in the draft.

Now, if you are telling me that Pitts isn't the second best player....let's say he's number six or seven. Let's say we still have Parsons at nine, Surtain as the tenth best player, and Horn still 12th. I say that's close enough to have need trump BPA.

But, as many have said, it's a moot point. Pitts will, in all likelihood, not be there. I am against us using draft capital to move up to take him.

There's really little difference in players ranked 9-12, mostly. BPA doesn't come into play in that scenario. Lamb was clearly better than everyone else available last draft. That's almost never the case. BPA differs from scout to scout, so there's often no such thing.

 

[kskboys]

Our problems aren't a CB2, they are in the middle of that defense. Any fan watching the last 5 seasons knows this.

You would think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kskboys]

I don't know what the team will look like in a couple years. I do know in general by the contracts who will probably be there. If you don't know where your own team is, you don't know what to do to raise the grade.

Let's say you grade WR1 as an 80, and you can 'get John Doe who is an 82, and is the highest rated player on your board. Also you have 1T who is on his last year contract, grades at a 55, and you can get a James Doe who is a 75. James Doe is a far better player to help the team. John Doe is the higher rated by quite a bit. But what I do know is that James Doe raises the overall grade of the team by 20 where John Doe raises the team grade by 2. James Doe is a 10 times better choice for the team.

If you start looking at the overall team instead of individual players you find that while BPA is a great thought, it isn't everything to building a team.

Lets say you are correct and Pitts is the 80 rated TE. What is your rating of the current TE you have?
Surtain is rated ??? What is the CB that he will be replacing rated at ??

And the bottom line is this is a team sport, not an individual one, and you want the team grade at its highest. The name of this game is upgrade, and that is what you should always be trying to do -- upgrade at each position, and make sure the backups are not too big a drop off if they have to play.

As far as Zeke/Ramsey --- Zeke was an upgrade, but Ramsey would have been a much bigger upgrade for the team. I think Dallas either forgets this, or can't evaluate their own team and overvalue their own players.

Or your opinion is wrong and Ramsey is not as big of an upgrade as you think!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Teague31]

Rookies wont change your 2021 defense.

Only player development from last year and coaching.

disagree. Look at what Carolina did last year.

 

[Stash]

I think it all depends on our draft board. I'm a proponent in taking the BPA. The draft is about acquiring talent. I wish we were more aggressive in FA, so we could really do the draft correctly. To build a team right you have to be willing to be somewhat patient. We aren't going to build a great defense over the course of one draft.

I guess I'm rambling...back to my original point.

The fact that there are at least five QBs (Davis is gaining momentum) worthy of being selected in the first round, really puts us in a position to possibly get one of top players on our draft board. I'm not going to pretend to know how we've ranked the player, but I think it's safe to assume that Lawrence is probably number one overall. I am guessing that Sewell and Pitts round out the top three.

If somehow one of the top three players is on our board, you have to take him at ten. It's not every draft you select in the top ten. It's not every draft you get an opportunity to select one of the top three players on your entire board. Let's say Pitts is number two on our board, and he somehow lands in our laps at ten. Would you really want to pass on him to select the top defensive player on your board? What if Surtain is the 10th ranked overall prospect, Parsons is the ninth overall prospect, and Horn is something like the 12th overall prospect.

Are you going to take the 9th-12th best player over your 2nd best player just because it's a bigger need? I'm not....I'm going to take the second best overall player in the draft.

Now, if you are telling me that Pitts isn't the second best player....let's say he's number six or seven. Let's say we still have Parsons at nine, Surtain as the tenth best player, and Horn still 12th. I say that's close enough to have need trump BPA.

But, as many have said, it's a moot point. Pitts will, in all likelihood, not be there. I am against us using draft capital to move up to take him.

A lot of great points mentioned here.

Kudos.

 

[Dalmations202]

Or your opinion is wrong and Ramsey is not as big of an upgrade as you think!!!!!!!!!!!!

So if Ramsey was on this defense, would we be looking at drafting a CB at 10?
I am not saying you aren't correct about my opinion -- that is why they call them opinions. I just think I can defend my opinion with a fair amount of certainty.

 

[quickccc]

Murray had the best rushing year in Cowboys history BECAUSE the Cowboys didn't think he was special. That's why they ran him into the ground with 392 carries. They knew they had no intention of re-signing him, so they didn't bother protecting their asset. And sure enough, he was out of the league in 3 years.

You said, "In the Cowboys eyes, we took a dynamic RB (at least he was his first 2 years) over what the Cowboys club viewed as a decent RB (Murray)." But Murray had already been gone a year by then.

Murray was gone a year later - after the 2014 season because Cowboys were not gonna re-sign a decent workhouse to a long term lucrative deal.
They didn't see Murray as special. And they tried out a back that they liked years back in McFadden, and Morris used to be a Cowboys killer, so they signed him.
But neither were star featured franchise RBs.

Because of the Romo injury downfall propelled us into a dysmal 4-12 losing season and into a position to select Zeke with the 4th overall pick.
And you don't take RBs that incredibly high amongst the top of the first round ..unless you think they are truly special …unless they are Adrien Peterson like.,

 

[JohnsKey19]

If both are available at 10, Pitts. If the team were closer and in theory "one player(CB) away" perhaps I would lean towards need and take Surtain. But we're not. The draft does not end in the 1st round and this is supposedly a draft with good CB depth.

 

[Bizwah]

There's really little difference in players ranked 9-12, mostly. BPA doesn't come into play in that scenario. Lamb was clearly better than everyone else available last draft. That's almost never the case. BPA differs from scout to scout, so there's often no such thing.

Uhhh... that's what I basically said.

There is little difference in 9-12, so you wouldn't mind taking a CB or other defensive player over Pitts if you have him ranked as your 6th or 7th player

You would however, take him if he were your second or third best. It would be silly to take your 9-12 best player at 10 just because it's a position of need over your second best player.

 

[Gaede]

I love Surtain and am hoping he’s our guy. But if Pitts is there, you just cannot pass on him.

You move up and grab the next CB if needed.

Totally agree with this.

Have a chance at a player like Pitts, you take it. Take 3 CBs in row if you have to, who cares. Get the elite talent when you can.

And if we miss out on Pitts, and end up with Surtain, then sweet. We got a #1 CB who's ready to play right away. That's OK too.

 

[kskboys]

So if Ramsey was on this defense, would we be looking at drafting a CB at 10?
I am not saying you aren't correct about my opinion -- that is why they call them opinions. I just think I can defend my opinion with a fair amount of certainty.

Quite possible. Ramsey appears to be a pariah, and if we'd have had to pay him top CB pay as he insists on, we'd have even less money to build a team. In that draft, I would've desperately tried to trade back. I wasn't crazy about anyone available at that point.

 

[cnuball21]

My question on Pitts vs Surtain is Moss/Ellis or Ramsey/Zeke.

The big debate was Zeke vs Ramsey and Dallas needed a CB. So we took the RB when we already had a descent RB.
Now we are still looking for a CB. Best for team would have been the CB, instead we took a RB. Rb was/is Good, and so was Ramsey.

I still think Ramsey would have helped the Cowboys more than Zeke.

Back to my question. If it is the difference is Zeke vs Ramsey, then give me the guy your team really needs. If there is this HUGE difference (Moss/Ellis), then take the BPA.

Who is good enough to evaluate the talent of these two, so they can determine which one will raise the "team" play more. I don't care about the individual player, I care about which one will raise the team play.

The Zeke vs Ramsey debate isn't really a good comp because you never, ever take a RB top...let along extend him on a monster contract. Those guys are so incredibly replacable and have a short shelf life they should never be near the top of a board.

The fact we took a RB over an elite, blue chip CB prospect was one of the worst draft blunders I can remember over the last decade.

 

[Dalmations202]

The Zeke vs Ramsey debate isn't really a good comp because you never, ever take a RB top...let along extend him on a monster contract. Those guys are so incredibly replacable and have a short shelf life they should never be near the top of a board.

The fact we took a RB over an elite, blue chip CB prospect was one of the worst draft blunders I can remember over the last decade.

My point is that we are now in the same position.
Take a player we need, or take a player for splash at a "position" that is not rated near as high.
I am not saying that Pitts isn't or won't be a very good player. I am saying that I think Surtain will be a very good player and he plays a position that we need which should help the overall grade/play of the team.