CFZ Last Decade: Being NFC 1 Seed has not produced many SB winners

[Flamma]

I specifically said 1 and 2 seeds. My guess is in the 70s and 80s the number of 1 and 2s in the SB were more than. I remember forever hearing how the Raiders are the ONY wildcard team to ever reach the SB, like it was some spectacular accomplishment. We dont flinch when it happens today.

You have to remember, before 1975 there really wasn't any number 1 seeds. They had different rules for home field and who you played first round. 1975 and up you got your actual Z for top seed. Prior to that year it didn't exist.

Also keep in mind that before the Raiders winning as a wildcard, they didn't have many wildcards. There was only 1 wildcard up until 1978.

 

[Flamma]

Again, the OP was about the NFC #1 seeds in the last ten years. Including the AFC, it’s a completely different story. One of the things I was trying to point out is that the last decade, the NFC has been pretty open to other teams besides the #1 seed winning the SB.

Well yeah, but at least 5 teams that were number 1 seed got to the SB. The NFC has been a little weak at winning the SB as the number 1 seed.

 

[Diehardblues]

Actually only 5 made it to the SB.

Based on your data there was 6.
2012- Atl
2013- Sea
2014- Sea
2015- Car
2017- Phil
2019- SF

 

[Diehardblues]

Well yeah, but at least 5 teams that were number 1 seed got to the SB. The NFC has been a little weak at winning the SB as the number 1 seed.

Yes , but more importantly IMO it’s still the biggest factor in reaching the Super Bowl and championship games.

 

[Flamma]

Yes , but more importantly IMO it’s still the biggest factor in reaching the Super Bowl and championship games.

Absolutely!! But it has nothing to do with actually winning the SB.

 

[StylisticS]

Based on your data there was 6.
2012- Atl
2013- Sea
2014- Sea
2015- Car
2017- Phil
2019- SF

In 2012, Atlanta lost in the conference championship game.

 

[Diehardblues]

I specifically said 1 and 2 seeds. My guess is in the 70s and 80s the number of 1 and 2s in the SB were more then. I remember forever hearing how the Raiders are the ONY wildcard team to ever reach the SB, like it was some spectacular accomplishment. We dont flinch when it happens today.

Yea, I wanna say in the old format with #1 and #2 seeds with the bye it was like 75% made it to championship game and around 50% to Super Bowl.

That’s pretty solid odds. I don’t imagine the lower seeds had a better percentage .

 

[Diehardblues]

In 2012, Atlanta lost in the conference championship game.

My bad. I misread . I was thinking that was year they made it to SB. But that was later.

 

[Diehardblues]

Based on your data there was 6.
2012- Atl
2013- Sea
2014- Sea
2015- Car
2017- Phil
2019- SF

@Bobhaze

Sorry Bob. You were right. I misread Atl in 2012.

Ok, so 50% of #1 seeds make it to SB and 80% the champ game . Still the best odds of any seed.

 

[xwalker]

Here’s an interesting fact: In the last ten years, the team earning the #1 NFC seed in the playoffs has only won the SB two times. Three other times the NFC’s #1 seed has made it to the SB and lost. So 50% of the time the last decade an NFC #1 seed has made it to a SB. Only 20% of the time has that team won a Lombardi.

Here are the NFC #1 seeds the last decade and how they fared:

• 2012- Atlanta was the #1 NFC seed- they lost in the NFC championship game to SF.
• 2013- Seattle was #1 NFC seed and won the SB.
• 2014- Seattle was #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to New England.
• 2015- Carolina was the #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to Denver.
• 2016- Dallas was #1 NFC seed- lost in divisional round to #4 seed GB.
• 2017- Filly was NFC #1 seed and won the SB.
• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Sure it would be nice to get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs this year. We still have a shot. But having it doesn’t mean as much as we used to think.

Bob,

• Without considering the bye week advantage:
• (Using the pre-2021 6 teams per conference playoff format.)
  • SB Win Probability = 8.3% (1/12)
  • Actual NFC #1 seed = 20% win rate (2/10)
  • NFC Championship Win Probability = 16.6% (1/6)
  • Actual NFC #1 seed = 50% win rate (5/10)
• 50% vs 16.6% is a huge difference.
  • The bye week alone would not account for that large of a difference because pre-2021 there were 3 teams per conference with bye weeks.

• AFC 2012 to 2021
  • 3 SB Wins by #1 seed
  • 6 Championship Wins by #1 seed

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I can't remember the last time, if ever, Dak has looked sharp after rest. Not playing Dak in the preseason was a mistake. He always needs game reps. We definitely don't want the bye week.

He was sharp last year against the Buccaneers.

 

[GMO415]

Here’s an interesting fact: In the last ten years, the team earning the #1 NFC seed in the playoffs has only won the SB two times. Three other times the NFC’s #1 seed has made it to the SB and lost. So 50% of the time the last decade an NFC #1 seed has made it to a SB. Only 20% of the time has that team won a Lombardi.

Here are the NFC #1 seeds the last decade and how they fared:

• 2012- Atlanta was the #1 NFC seed- they lost in the NFC championship game to SF.
• 2013- Seattle was #1 NFC seed and won the SB.
• 2014- Seattle was #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to New England.
• 2015- Carolina was the #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to Denver.
• 2016- Dallas was #1 NFC seed- lost in divisional round to #4 seed GB.
• 2017- Filly was NFC #1 seed and won the SB.
• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Sure it would be nice to get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs this year. We still have a shot. But having it doesn’t mean as much as we used to think.

Bullet, thank for the info. They make it sound like Dallas was the only team that ever did this.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Here’s an interesting fact: In the last ten years, the team earning the #1 NFC seed in the playoffs has only won the SB two times. Three other times the NFC’s #1 seed has made it to the SB and lost. So 50% of the time the last decade an NFC #1 seed has made it to a SB. Only 20% of the time has that team won a Lombardi.

Here are the NFC #1 seeds the last decade and how they fared:

• 2012- Atlanta was the #1 NFC seed- they lost in the NFC championship game to SF.
• 2013- Seattle was #1 NFC seed and won the SB.
• 2014- Seattle was #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to New England.
• 2015- Carolina was the #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to Denver.
• 2016- Dallas was #1 NFC seed- lost in divisional round to #4 seed GB.
• 2017- Filly was NFC #1 seed and won the SB.
• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Sure it would be nice to get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs this year. We still have a shot. But having it doesn’t mean as much as we used to think.

I see lots of NFC Championship Games.

 

[Cowboys1966]

Again, the OP was about the NFC #1 seeds in the last ten years. Including the AFC, it’s a completely different story. One of the things I was trying to point out is that the last decade, the NFC has been pretty open to other teams besides the #1 seed winning the SB.

Yes that was what your OP was about… But… Of course the discussion pivoted two the more relevant, how much does the number one seed actually help you…I mean 10 years is pretty arbitrary… Like Tom Selleck hitting 350, in night games, in the month of September lol

 

[Bobhaze]

Yes that was what your OP was about… But… Of course the discussion pivoted two the more relevant, how much does the number one seed actually help you…I mean 10 years is pretty arbitrary… Like Tom Selleck hitting 350, in night games, in the month of September lol

To me, looking at trends by decade provides some insight. That’s all I was trying to do. The word trend itself implies that. Trends are about how things have been more recently.

 

[bsbellomy]

Here’s an interesting fact: In the last ten years, the team earning the #1 NFC seed in the playoffs has only won the SB two times. Three other times the NFC’s #1 seed has made it to the SB and lost. So 50% of the time the last decade an NFC #1 seed has made it to a SB. Only 20% of the time has that team won a Lombardi.

Here are the NFC #1 seeds the last decade and how they fared:

• 2012- Atlanta was the #1 NFC seed- they lost in the NFC championship game to SF.
• 2013- Seattle was #1 NFC seed and won the SB.
• 2014- Seattle was #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to New England.
• 2015- Carolina was the #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to Denver.
• 2016- Dallas was #1 NFC seed- lost in divisional round to #4 seed GB.
• 2017- Filly was NFC #1 seed and won the SB.
• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Sure it would be nice to get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs this year. We still have a shot. But having it doesn’t mean as much as we used to think.

Maybe just me but these stats suggest to me you'd rather be the #1 seed than not.

 

[eromeopolk]

Here’s an interesting fact: In the last ten years, the team earning the #1 NFC seed in the playoffs has only won the SB two times. Three other times the NFC’s #1 seed has made it to the SB and lost. So 50% of the time the last decade an NFC #1 seed has made it to a SB. Only 20% of the time has that team won a Lombardi.

Here are the NFC #1 seeds the last decade and how they fared:

• 2012- Atlanta was the #1 NFC seed- they lost in the NFC championship game to SF.
• 2013- Seattle was #1 NFC seed and won the SB.
• 2014- Seattle was #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to New England.
• 2015- Carolina was the #1 NFC seed- won NFC championship but lost SB to Denver.
• 2016- Dallas was #1 NFC seed- lost in divisional round to #4 seed GB.
• 2017- Filly was NFC #1 seed and won the SB.
• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Sure it would be nice to get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs this year. We still have a shot. But having it doesn’t mean as much as we used to think.

Only 2 teams did not get the NFC Conference game. I like being a 1 seed. And, if you look at Dallas Cowboys history and not Arlington Jonesboys history, the Dallas Cowboys like being a no.1 seed or a team that earned a 1st round bye (see the 1993 Dallas Cowboys vs. NY Giants).

That is why going to the Super Bowl used to be the goal for the Dallas Cowboys. They would either get the no.1 seed or the 1st round bye. Now we just hope to get to a NFC Championship game which means we just hope to win a divisional playoff game.

Oh how the mighty have fallen.