Live feed of the ruptured oil lines

[SaltwaterServr]

3:09 am CDT, they're working on one of the leaks right now with two or three ROV's.

 

[CliffnDallas]

It's very dark down there. I cant see anything.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

It's very dark down there. I cant see anything.

They've changed views to overhead now. When I was watching earlier there were three ROV's. They were threading some O-Rings with heavy nylon strap through a bolted assembly on one of the twisted pipes.

The pipe leak is actually 4976 feet deep and the leak is 18 feet off the bottom.

Right now the thing is lit up like noon day. You can see the top kill pipes that are feeding in from the left although that might be the siphon straw. The view earlier was at the base of the plume that it's showing now. You could see the individual pipes and leaks within the holes of each pipe. That stuff had some PRESSURE behind it.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

They say it will take three months to drill a relief well which will permanently stop it. Which means the relief well won't be there until early August.

I've been looking at the video off and on. This morning 5/29 the plume looks a lot darker and blacker. That can't be good.

I don't think they will be able to successfully cement the hole after all the mud is pumped in. Too much pressure coming up. And the cementing of the well may lead to springing a new leak somewhere else which would be even more disastrous.

BP (and the other oil companies) and the government got caught with no backup plan in the instance of blowout preventer failure. No one thought it could happen. Well, it did.

The whole process of deepwater drilling will have to be re-examined and re-designed. I look for more redundancy in the shutoff, perhaps two or three BOPs in sequence. Also, a manual shutoff needs to be installed in all units. If the automatic shutoffs don't work, there has to be a way to shutoff manually by robotic arm. Also, relief wells may have to be in place already (if this is possible) or be able to accomplish much sooner. All of that is going to be expensive which will drive the price up and probably make it not worth drilling in deep water.

 

[Tusan_Homichi]

Looks like the top kill method didn't work.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20006366-54.html?tag=newsEditorsPicksArea.0

 

[SaltwaterServr]

They say it will take three months to drill a relief well which will permanently stop it. Which means the relief well won't be there until early August.

I've been looking at the video off and on. This morning 5/29 the plume looks a lot darker and blacker. That can't be good.

I don't think they will be able to successfully cement the hole after all the mud is pumped in. Too much pressure coming up. And the cementing of the well may lead to springing a new leak somewhere else which would be even more disastrous.

BP (and the other oil companies) and the government got caught with no backup plan in the instance of blowout preventer failure. No one thought it could happen. Well, it did.

The whole process of deepwater drilling will have to be re-examined and re-designed. I look for more redundancy in the shutoff, perhaps two or three BOPs in sequence. Also, a manual shutoff needs to be installed in all units. If the automatic shutoffs don't work, there has to be a way to shutoff manually by robotic arm. Also, relief wells may have to be in place already (if this is possible) or be able to accomplish much sooner. All of that is going to be expensive which will drive the price up and probably make it not worth drilling in deep water.

If they think it will take to August to drill it, we might see it by October. NOAA's predicting the first Hurricanes in the Gulf by the end of June.

As of right now, the video feed is inside of a manned submersible. FREAKING COOL.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

[youtube]3fO9h6-tfOU&feature=related[/youtube]

 

[TheCount]

Yeah, seems like we're really screwed here. I know it's tough for human beings to accept that there is nothing they can do about a problem like this, but its sure starting to seem like our only option is to wait months and just let this thing keep pumping.

Who knows what kind of long term damage we're looking at here really. Does even BP have enough money to clean this up really?

 

[ZeroClub]

BP is beyond its depth.

 

[Cajuncowboy]

Should have drilled the relief well at first when BP wanted to start on it. Either way, right now, all of the clean up crews are now charging double their normal rates for the effort.

Supply ships are bid out at around 30K for 30 days.

Insane. They are trying to get their money now because they know what is going to happen when this is finally resolved.

Bad, bad way to handle this IMO.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Who knows what kind of long term damage we're looking at here really. Does even BP have enough money to clean this up really?

Good question. I don't think bankruptcy is out of the question for BP.

BP has 3.13 billion shares outstanding and the present stock price is around $42/share. The market cap for BP right now is $134.5B at $42/share. The stock price has already dropped 30% from its peak this year. And it will continue to drop until the oil has stopped flowing. If the stock price drops to around $10/share (not unrealistic), BP will have a market cap of $31.3B. Right now, the estimates of the all the costs (cleanup, lawsuits, etc) related to the Gulf Disaster is $5-25B.

Although, BP did turn $5B profit for the 1st quarter this year. I don't know how much cash they have on hand.

Are we going to hear more of "bailouts" and "too big to fail" again?

 

[theogt]

Good question. I don't think bankruptcy is out of the question for BP.

BP has 3.13 billion shares outstanding and the present stock price is around $42/share. The market cap for BP right now is $134.5B at $42/share. The stock price has already dropped 30% from its peak this year. And it will continue to drop until the oil has stopped flowing. If the stock price drops to around $10/share (not unrealistic), BP will have a market cap of $31.3B. Right now, the estimates of the all the costs (cleanup, lawsuits, etc) related to the Gulf Disaster is $5-25B.

Although, BP did turn $5B profit for the 1st quarter this year. I don't know how much cash they have on hand.

Are we going to hear more of "bailouts" and "too big to fail" again?

At March 31, they had just under $7 billion in cash and cash equivalents ($70 billion in current assets). They have $32 billion in debt ($240 billion in assets).

There's zero chance they even consider bankruptcy. This is a PR nightmare, not a solvency issue.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

At March 31, they had just under $7 billion in cash and cash equivalents ($70 billion in current assets). They have $32 billion in debt ($240 billion in assets).

There's zero chance they even consider bankruptcy. This is a PR nightmare, not a solvency issue.

True, it is a PR nightmare right now. And everyday it gets worse. Their second quarter sales numbers are going to be very interesting. If Americans get so sick of this company and quit buying their product, bankruptcy will become an increasing probability for BP imo. Then again, maybe they could survive without a presence in the US market. It would be a huge hit.

I wonder what kind of hit BP is taking in sales so far. Although I didn't buy BP gas before. I wouldn't even consider buying BP gas now.

 

[theogt]

True, it is a PR nightmare right now. And everyday it gets worse. Their second quarter sales numbers are going to be very interesting. If Americans get so sick of this company and quit buying their product, bankruptcy will become an increasing probability for BP imo. Then again, maybe they could survive without a presence in the US market. It would be a huge hit.

I wonder what kind of hit BP is taking in sales so far. Although I didn't buy BP gas before. I wouldn't even consider buying BP gas now.

It will have a very small impact on their financials. Bankruptcy isn't in the picture. US retail sales at BP branded gas stations is a small blip on their radar.

BP's business is first and foremost E&P. Second, and to a lesser degree, refining, then, commercial marketing, then, retail marketing. The company is really very different from what you think it is.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Nor was bankruptcy in the picture for GM. They had $50B+ in cash and assets out the ying-yang. Three years later, nothing left in the piggy bank except a bunch of debt. Just saying.

If people boycott BP's product for an extended time, bankruptcy will rear its head. Cleanup costs could be $25B or even much more. How about punative damages in the $50B range, out of the question? Who knows? Is there a cap on the maximum amount BP can be held liable?

And BP is nothing but a gigantic cash cow for every lawsuit imaginable. Those lawyers are like sharks and they see blood in all that oil out there. All that cash on hand and assets make a very pretty target and might not be enough to cover.

And how many want BP out there drilling and exploring near their coast? Good luck to anyone working at BP in marketing right now. Expect a lot of doors to get slammed in their faces.

 

[jackrussell]

Not that this would help now...

But I've heard that Canada requires a relief well drilled the same time any well is drilled in the Arctic.

Makes sense.

 

[theogt]

Nor was bankruptcy in the picture for GM. They had $50B+ in cash and assets out the ying-yang. Three years later, nothing left in the piggy bank except a bunch of debt. Just saying.

GM entered bankruptcy in June 2009. As of December 31, 2006 (three years before), they had $20 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and $190 billion in debt. That's a far cry from BP's $24 billion in debt and $70 billion current assets. You honestly know very little about finance, bankruptcy, etc.

If people boycott BP's product for an extended time, bankruptcy will rear its head.

You couldn't be more wrong. BP could shut down all of its BP branded retail outlets in the entire US and not even consider bankruptcy. When you think of BP, you think of gas stations. But that's just because you really don't know anything about the company. You just see what the average guy sees. BP is not about gas stations.

Cleanup costs could be $25B or even much more. How about punative damages in the $50B range, out of the question? Who knows? Is there a cap on the maximum amount BP can be held liable?

And BP is nothing but a gigantic cash cow for every lawsuit imaginable. Those lawyers are like sharks and they see blood in all that oil out there. All that cash on hand and assets make a very pretty target and might not be enough to cover.

And how many want BP out there drilling and exploring near their coast? Good luck to anyone working at BP in marketing right now. Expect a lot of doors to get slammed in their faces.

BP's damages will be considerably lower than what you're guessing at.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

http://finance.mapsofworld.com/financial-report/organisations/gm-financial-statements.html

General Motors Corporation: Annual Balance Sheet ( a summary)

Cash in December, 2006: USD 24,261.0 million
Cash in December, 2005: USD 50,452.0 million

Total current assets in December 2006: USD 64,480.0 million
Total current assets in December,2005: USD 99,414.0 million

Total assets in December, 2006: USD186,192.0 million
Total assets in December, 2005: USD 476,078.0 million

So, they had $50B at the end of Dec 05, 4 years before bankruptcy. My memory was off by one year. So, no one thought GM was going bankrupt and 4 years later, voila. Happy?

Of course, GM and BP are different. Yet, they are the same in some respects. BP's name is synonomous with poison right now. GM's name was synonomous with junk. Customers preferred Toyota. Gasoline consumers would rather buy from someone else.(no, I didn't do an in-depth study and yes, I am guessing here). Their exploration business will take a hit. No off-shore drilling for 6 months and you know that will be extended. Have all offshore wells been shut down also until they get this thing stopped? I thought I read that. 30,000 offshore oil-related people in the Gulf states are waiting for work now because of the drilling moratorium. And BP screwed them all. BP may owe them a paycheck for 6 months.

And, yes the cleanup costs could easily surpass $25B. BP has spent $1B already with hardly anything to show for it. And, BP hasn't even addressed the huge number of lawsuits. This could easily be a $50-100B liability after punative damages, cleanup, and lawsuits are settled. If this drags out to Aug and then relief well doesn't work...that zero probablity of bankruptcy just went up. I agree the probability is small right now but it can mushroom depending on certain events.

In 2005, the probability of GM going bankrupt was probably close to zero.

 

[theogt]

http://finance.mapsofworld.com/financial-report/organisations/gm-financial-statements.html

General Motors Corporation: Annual Balance Sheet ( a summary)

Cash in December, 2006: USD 24,261.0 million
Cash in December, 2005: USD 50,452.0 million

Total current assets in December 2006: USD 64,480.0 million
Total current assets in December,2005: USD 99,414.0 million

Total assets in December, 2006: USD186,192.0 million
Total assets in December, 2005: USD 476,078.0 million

So, they had $50B at the end of Dec 05, 4 years before bankruptcy. My memory was off by one year. So, no one thought GM was going bankrupt and 4 years later, voila. Happy?

Of course, GM and BP are different. Yet, they are the same in some respects. BP's name is synonomous with poison right now. GM's name was synonomous with junk. Customers preferred Toyota. Gasoline consumers would rather buy from someone else.(no, I didn't do an in-depth study and yes, I am guessing here). Their exploration business will take a hit. No off-shore drilling for 6 months and you know that will be extended. Have all offshore wells been shut down also until they get this thing stopped? I thought I read that. 30,000 offshore oil-related people in the Gulf states are waiting for work now because of the drilling moratorium. And BP screwed them all. BP may owe them a paycheck for 6 months.

And, yes the cleanup costs could easily surpass $25B. BP has spent $1B already with hardly anything to show for it. And, BP hasn't even addressed the huge number of lawsuits. This could easily be a $50-100B liability after punative damages, cleanup, and lawsuits are settled. If this drags out to Aug and then relief well doesn't work...that zero probablity of bankruptcy just went up. I agree the probability is small right now but it can mushroom depending on certain events.

In 2005, the probability of GM going bankrupt was probably close to zero.

Your numbers are incorrect (they're classified incorrectly). As of December 31, 2005, GM had cash and cash equivalents of $30.7 billion.

And they had total liabilities of $460 billion. They were on the verge of being insolvent in terms of cash flow and balance sheet. They had only $480 billion in assets and had negative cash flows of $16.8 billion.

Please, stop talking about things you're clueless about. Hell, you don't even know where to properly look up their financial statements.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

I'm really, really, really hurt you don't like my numbers.

I hope you aren't in such a bad mood because you have BP stock. That would be a real shame.