Looking back, did we overrate the 2012-14 drafts?

[Common Sense]

I don't think we've been horrible at player evaluation by any means. Where we screw up is mishandling our draft capital. As a rule, you should probably never trade up for anyone who isn't a QB. This has been studied enough that there's pretty good data suggesting that the team trading up loses significantly more times than it wins. Then there's the weird, "cute" things we try to do like stockpile 7th round picks. I think I understand the reasoning behind it -- it's basically what is called "The Long Tail" in economics or business -- but there is no evidence whatsoever that it can be an effective strategy in the NFL draft. Quite the opposite if you actually look at the metrics.

Scouting players is an art, but maximizing the value of draft picks is a science that can be quantified pretty easily.

 

[hornitosmonster]

The bust rate for QB's is high. We got Luck (who is struggling), Carr, Bridgewater, and Wilson (who many think is average). The rest are mediocre or almost out of the NFL (Johnny, RG III, Kap).

 

[Supercowboy1986]

It really showed in the offseason. They really thought that anyone could run behind this league. May not want to come out and say it but going into the season with Randle and McFadden was laughable. I also could be mistaken, but did not St Louis or Baltimore not consider Garrett because of had an arrogant persona or something similar about him? Basically, you have mediocre coaching on top of questionable draft picks and questionable depth headed by a terrible general manager.

What are you talking about? Were you Mia with all the posts making comparisons to the running game last year and this year? The running game is not the issue. The running game has produced identical results even with romo out for 7 games and 2 backup qbs. This debate is over and you are a fool for thinking that the running game lost us any games.

I'd link you to the many posts with factual data but you won't read it because you're a tool.

 

[LocimusPrime]

Are you trying to give a lesson here?

Is it fair to judge a pass rusher in what is essentially his rookie season in the NFL?

Let me answer please. It is not fair. No sir. Rookie DEs rarely do anything. It takes about 2-3 years for them

 

[StarBoyz83]

Absolutely did

 

[ghst187]

W

• Anthony Hitchens - starter who really should be a back up. I begged for Telvin Smith at this spot. He was drafted 30 spots after Hitchens and has more sacks, FF, int, and double career tackles

@AsthmaField @Risen Star @RS12

ditto

 

[Cmac]

I absolutely guarantee you Terrance Williams gets a second contract. Not a shadow of doubt in my mind. He is a good #2. The system is the issue.

Ditto....players keep getting blamed for the inept coaching. JG needs a For Sale sign in his yard.

 

[Dodger12]

What are you talking about? Were you Mia with all the posts making comparisons to the running game last year and this year? The running game is not the issue. The running game has produced identical results even with romo out for 7 games and 2 backup qbs. This debate is over and you are a fool for thinking that the running game lost us any games.

I'd link you to the many posts with factual data but you won't read it because you're a tool.

I saw the thread you're referring to and it's certainly interesting. But the running game is not the same this year as it was last year and only a tool would think that.

Murray ran off 8 straight 100 yard games to start the season. He had 100 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games. This doesn't include anyone else's rushing totals. We dominated the line of scrimmage. We had an identity. We were going to wear a team down and keep our D off the field that was epically bad the previous season. We were a threat to run from any formation and any down and didn't go shotgun all the time to deep the D honest.

The running game fed off an efficient passing game and visa versa. If you look at the stats and hang onto them until your fingers bleed, you can come to the same conclusion that Brandon Weeden is a better QB than Tony Romo and only a fool would make those conclusions based on stats.

 

[StylisticS]

What are you talking about? Were you Mia with all the posts making comparisons to the running game last year and this year? The running game is not the issue. The running game has produced identical results even with romo out for 7 games and 2 backup qbs. This debate is over and you are a fool for thinking that the running game lost us any games.

I'd link you to the many posts with factual data but you won't read it because you're a tool.

lol at this internet g cannot discuss without insulting. Did I say any part of the running game being the issue? I used it as an example of the front office arrogance.

 

[vicjagger]

If a lot of late rounders are contributing, instead of great drafting, perhaps the team stinks.

 

[Supercowboy1986]

I can agree with everything you said about having an identity and blah blah blah.

The big flaw with your argument is that the sample size of weeden' start is very small compared to the running game which has been since game 1 (split between now 6 Rbs - Randle, dunbar, McFadden, smith, cmike, turbin) which have produced similar results. Of course weedens numbers look impressive considering he never threw down field or the left side. Good post but tools never win. Not calling you one because you actually applied logic versus the latter.

Plus you used my language in your post which is always a bonus cause it shows you have a brain.

I saw the thread you're referring to and it's certainly interesting. But the running game is not the same this year as it was last year and only a tool would think that.

Murray ran off 8 straight 100 yard games to start the season. He had 100 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games. This doesn't include anyone else's rushing totals. We dominated the line of scrimmage. We had an identity. We were going to wear a team down and keep our D off the field that was epically bad the previous season. We were a threat to run from any formation and any down and didn't go shotgun all the time to deep the D honest.

The running game fed off an efficient passing game and visa versa. If you look at the stats and hang onto them until your fingers bleed, you can come to the same conclusion that Brandon Weeden is a better QB than Tony Romo and only a fool would make those conclusions based on stats.

 

[Dodger12]

I can agree with everything you said about having an identity and blah blah blah.

The big flaw with your argument is that the sample size of weeden' start is very small compared to the running game which has been since game 1 (split between now 6 Rbs - Randle, dunbar, McFadden, smith, cmike, turbin) which have produced similar results. Of course weedens numbers look impressive considering he never threw down field or the left side. Good post but tools never win. Not calling you one because you actually applied logic versus the latter.

Plus you used my language in your post which is always a bonus cause it shows you have a brain.

I see. So the sample size is too small but you include Turbin, Dunbar, CMike and Smith in your calculations and they get/got minimal carries. And I wonder if you thought Randle would be an adequate replacement for Murray or if you said his sample size was too small to form an opinion?

And what's with the insults even though you qualified it that it wasn't directed at me I guess?

 

[Supercowboy1986]

I see. So the sample size is too small but you include Turbin, Dunbar, CMike and Smith in your calculations and they get/got minimal carries. And I wonder if you thought Randle would be an adequate replacement for Murray or if you said his sample size was too small to form an opinion?

And what's with the insults even though you qualified it that it wasn't directed at me I guess?

My sample was the running game as a whole not per running back. Wasn't that obvious ? I said the running game was split among 6 rbs.

My opinion of randle was really non existent. I was in the wait and see category. I couldn't draw a conclusion until I could see what he could do. Clearly he's out so that answers that question.

I am not a professional scout, coach, gm, or whatever. I can only go by the results he produces.

 

[LocimusPrime]

Well it took me a few minutes but for jollies lets compare the cowboys draft picks 2012-2014 to the Mighty well run, well coached, draft kings: the Patriots


2012

• Chandlers Jones 31 tackles and 10.5 sacks this year (excellent)
• Donta Hightower 52 tackles 3.5 sacks (very good)
• Tavon Wilson 4 tackles and about to lose his roster spot No Bueno
• Jake Bequette Released Aug 2014
• Nate Ebner 9 tackles no impact will be cut
• Alfonso Denard Waived by the Patriots the signed by Cardinal. No waived by Cardinals
• Jeremy Ebert Waived

2013

• Jamie Collins 5 tackles and 4.5 sacks this year (kinda like jack Crawford)
• Aaron Dobson Currently on the IR has 13 career receptions for 141 yards below average player
• Logan Ryan 50 tackles 4 int (very good)
• Duron Harmon 10 tackles 3 ints (kinda like Heath)
• Josh Boyce Waived then put on IR After settlement he will be done
• Michael Buchanan Cut by Patriots sgned by Bills cut by Bills
• Steve Beuharnais Cut

2014

• Dominique Easley 13 tackles 1 sack JAG at best
• Jimmy Garoppolo Backup QB
• Bryan Stork was injured and activated on Nov 7th JAG
• James White back up rb with 10 carries for 34 yards below avg player
• Cameron Fleming Guard JAG
• John Halapio Cut
• Zach Moore Cut is currently on Minnesota PS
• Jemea Thomas Cut
• Jeremy Gallon Cut

Well, those are the Patriots draft picks. Its safe to say that drafts are not an exact science. All teams will have hits and misses and compared to the Patriots we are on point. I didnt believe it at first because there so may posters stating that the Patriots (and other teams) where better at scouting, drafting, an player acquisition. I'm working on the Commanders next, but they don't look good at all.

Hello everyone, I just finished the Ravens 2012-2014 drafts and heres what happened:

2012

• Courtney Upshaw- LB Good player 163 tackles 4 sacks (Career totals)
• Kelechi Osemele - DT 31 tackles 1 sack (JAG) (Career totals)
• Bernard Pierce -
• Gino Gradkovski
• Chritina Thompson
• Asa Jackson
• Tony Streeter
• De Angelo Tyson

2013

• Matt Elam
• Arthur Brown - LB 12 tackles been on IR a lot below avg player (Career Totals)
• Brandon Williams - DT 91 tackles 3.5 sacks good player (Career Totals)
• John Simon
• Kyle Juszcyk - FB 3 career yards below avg player but he might be a real awesome blocker (Career Totals) yes 3 yards lol
• Rick Wagner - OT JAG
• Kapron Moore
• Ryan Jensen - C JAG
• Aaron Melleite
• Marc Anthony

2014

• CJ Mosley - LB 201 tackles 6 sacks 2 ints excellent player
• Timmy Jernigan - DT 40 tackles JAG
• Terrence Brooks - Safety 26 tackles 0 ins JAG
• Crockett Gillmore - 506 yards 5 TDS rotational TE good player (like escobar I guess)
• Brent Urban - Has never played been on IR since he was drafted
• Lorenzon Talfario
• John Urschel - Guard JAG
• Keith Wenning
• Michael Campanaro

The ravens had 14 probowlers from 2012-2014 none where from the 12-14 draft classes. Players crossed out have been cut/ or no longer playing football.,

 

[Alexander]

I don't think we've been horrible at player evaluation by any means.

We are far worse at examining our own and then deciding where to go from there.

That right there, if done correctly, can set your board up nicely and if you stick to it, you can have a good draft.

We have hit on first rounders, which is okay I guess, but we have not had a draft steal in a long time.

 

[Wolfpack]

In trying to convince myself of how the Cowboys could compete while this lunatic owns the team I thought maybe they could at least spend lavishly on the best scouts. Just pick them off of other staffs. There is no cap for that. At the very least try to assemble an all star scouting department to listen to.

He doesn't even do that.

The all star scouting team mostly likely would be be too busy traveling to hang out at the Crazy Horse with the boss after work so its best to leave that alone. Better that Jerry keeps his drinking crew. Everyone knows the real scouting gets does at the combine.

 

[Alexander]

The all star scouting team mostly likely would be be too busy traveling to hang out at the Crazy Horse with the boss after work so its best to leave that alone. Better that Jerry keeps his drinking crew. Everyone knows the real scouting gets does at the combine.

If you have a problem with how Will McClay is running this team, just come out and say it.

 

[Wolfpack]

I don't think it's that we don't draft good players. I don't think we have good coaches to get the most and the best out of the players we draft.

Thats a good statement although they try to draft the guys who look good but have medical issues also.

I also think they draft players solely based on measurables and not how they would fit into the scheme you want to run. That's what a GM would do, not just collect scouting reports. Plus changing your defensive scheme each year doesn't really help either.

 

[TheDude]

I think my feelings on the 2012 draft are well stated. Along with FA that year, it was one of the worst offseasons in team history (though celebrated by many at the time). A complete waste of huge resources and it really set the team back. Whenever I want to feel good about Garrett I think back to that offseason. Was he okay with these decisions? Because if he was he doesn't have a clue of what he's doing either. The philosophy was flawed. Even with proper evaluation of the talent.

To this point, the 2012 draft was a poster of incompetence. I got into a 4 day debate with Hostile about why Garrett was nothing but a figurehead and not some Landry leader of men. That whole fiasco was laid at the feet of Rob Ryan. Somehow Rob convinced everyone all he needed was CBs (or so the story was written). Most hailed that Mo pick as a coup at the time. He was the next Deion I read multiple times - somehow with 4.5 speed vs 4.2, but that was details. 2 slow cornerbacks (one borderline retardud) was the the haul for a #1 pick, a #2 pick and $50M.

The main issue I have with Garrett is he presents himself well - like a polished top dollar KPMG consultant - but there is little substance or ability to affect change and manage up - or if there is, then he is just as bad if not worse than Jerry. How does Rob Ryan convince anyone in the draft room to give up 2 picks for a marginal CB that wasnt vetted? How can Phil Costa be a top 8 lineman on a roster for multiple years? How can Brandon Weeden be on the roster for 2 years? and on and on. . When you need to read leadership books and go on field trips to see coach K or Marlin fishing with Jimmy, it usually doesnt mold people into great leaders, but is a 7 Habits written by some self help guru that people think they can emulate and voila - Im a leader

Then we have the culture of stability. We scrap the 3-4 because of the CB fails after 2 years - go to a 4-3 with no Dline. We want a power run scheme a la Houck, nope change that to a zone scheme - keep Houck ho never coached it for the inaugural year only t retire, etc., etc. We dont need a good oline because of Romos escapability - only then to need an oline. These has been some stability to be fair - We need to run a 2 TE set only to never use 2 TEs in the passing game - thus dictating run plays and this year we run on first down 95% of the time.

Finally, any HC who part of that 2012 fiasco - if he saw it coming - wouldnt have stayed around for a second contract, because you will never win with any FO that takes its cues from a fat blustering DC (if that story is to be believed)

 

[TheDude]

The problem isn't talent. It's coaching.

Derek Dooley is getting off very lightly - though he only is in coaching because of daddy's friends anyway so that should be good enough. He is an atrocious coach and has has no business coaching wideouts. Watch the release from the line - hops and stutters everywhere. Looks at the breaks on fake double moves (esp Williams)- stutters and head down, though on real breaks head stays up. If I can see tendencies sitting through 1 or 2 viewings, imagine people who get paid $ to work 70-90 hours a week on it.