Lower Tier Extensions

[Mr_437]

Maybe 1 or 2 of those guys stay because:

1. Several will get FA offers that are too big for us to match (Like Anthony Brown) We have finally gotten wiser about NOT overpaying for middle level talent.

2. Younger, cheaper talent from the draft who are on first contracts makes more financial sense. Most of the consistently good teams (like NE) keep a mix of a small number of guys with big contracts and a large portion of young guys with rookie deals.

3. Most fans (us Cowboys fans included) overvalue “pet cat” players from their favorite teams. We fans often lack the cold hard talent evaluation that NFL teams must have to manage the cap well.

The list of lower tier guys in the OP will stay here only if the stars of this team get slightly better “team friendly” deals with their next contracts than we would expect. I doubt that happens.

Besides Brown, who would get a deal that isn't cheap?

By no means am I thinking about overpaying these guys. How I see this is, I'd rather pay vets, I like, a little more money now than dumpster dive for FAs later or depending on crapshoot, mid-to late round rookies.

I just don't see and issue with extending guys they know who are young, and don't cost much. This isn't about a pet cat theory... it's business.

Good post.

 

[PhillySpecial]

I’d like to keep Jarwin, Heath and Brown but I’m happy for it to be a off-season decision once there contract expires, and then only if the price is right.

To me the rest are very expendable. M.Collins I like but injuries and other option (Woods, Covington, Hill) mean he’s not a priority.

Usually? Sometimes? Once in a while? Players will take a little less to shift the injury risk from the player to the team. It also gives them some security for the future. They know where they'll be living and won't have to uproot their families. I think players see the injury risk as the most important factor. A player who has played to the end of their contract has accepted all the injury risk associated with that contract. He would have pretty good incentive to not negotiate with his current team and test FA for the best deal he can get.

A team has a pretty good idea of what kind of money the player's agent is looking for. And they have a good idea of what the market value is for a player. If they determine they want to keep the player, and can sign him to a reasonable contract, it might be a good idea sign them a year early.

 

[Bobhaze]

Besides Brown, who would get a deal that isn't cheap?

By no means am I thinking about overpaying these guys. How I see this is, I'd rather pay vets, I like, a little more money now than dumpster dive for FAs later or depending on crapshoot, mid-to late round rookies.

I just don't see and issue with extending guys they know who are young, and don't cost much. This isn't about a pet cat theory... it's business.

Good post.

I don’t disagree with you that keeping some of these guys would be good. The problem is, when most of them hit FA, there are too many teams more than willing to overpay them. What the Bills paid Cole Beasley is a good example.

In today’s NFL, the teams willing to overpay for good but not great players is long. Not coincidentally, those teams are also usually not making deep playoff runs.

 

[Mr_437]

I don’t disagree with you that keeping some of these guys would be good. The problem is, when most of them hit FA, there are too many teams more than willing to overpay them. What the Bills paid Cole Beasley is a good example.

In today’s NFL, the teams willing to overpay for good but not great players is long. Not coincidentally, those teams are also usually not making deep playoff runs.

Good point.

 

[Kolemmitt]

I think some of these extensions get done out of the blue.
I would add A. Woods to that list. I like the way he plays the 1-tech.

 

[xwalker]

Everybody is talking about Dak, Zeke, Amari, Byron and Jaylon...but what about some other guys who play key roles. These players may not be rated as high as the aforementioned, but their in a contract year too. Should Stephen give these guys an extension to keep solid depth, and secure some glue guys?

Under the radar extension:

1) CB Anthony Brown - virtually a starter since he was drafted and thriving through a DB coach change. Slot CB is a starter for DAL defense and with 4.33 speed and a ton of experience yielding good results, Cowboys should look to extend AB this summer. Why? Little depth after 2019.

2) 3 Tech Maliek Collins - virtual starter upon arrival. Liek has played thru injury most of his time in Dallas, and that has effected his production... possibly lowering his price tag. Even with the drafting of Trysten Hill, extending Collins this summer guarantees a, lunch snatching, 1-2 punch at 3 tech for this DL rotation. Why? Little depth after 2019.

3) FS Jeff Heath - I know, I know...but did you see him chase down Saquan? One thing that's tough to argue against is Heath playing Centerfielder on passing downs. As a special teams captain type dude, and backup "FS" with lotsa experience sign him up. Why? Little depth at Safety after 2019.

4) LB Joe Thomas - Joe is a fast LB with good coverage skill, great for backing up THE DUO in the nickel. Why? Lack of veteran depth after 2019.

5) SS Kavon Frazier - Tough, violent, fast box Saftey and special teams ace. Football is a violent game, hoard violent players...the end. Why? Special teams ace.

6) LB Justin March-Lillard - difficult for this young backer to get on the field, but DAL needs depth at LB. Lock this dude up for a couple more years...5'11 228 4.53 speed and knows all the LB positions on the defense. Why? Depth!

As you can see I've gone all defense with this group partly cause I'm a defense guy, but also cause there just isn't anybody on offense I'd bang the keyboard to get extended amongst lower tier players.

Honorable Mention:

LG Xavier Sua-Filo - the OL is stacked so the FO can wait or replace.

TE Blake Jarwin - RFA for 2020, so a 2nd round tender should get him secured, but I would look to see what type of numbers his agent is thinking about... especially after the production he put up the last part of the season.

Personally, I'd extend 4 of the 6, what say you?

Brown will get a big contract somewhere to be a full time starter. The Cowboys will sign either Jones or Brown but not both.

M.Collins might be the most underrated player on the team but he has had injury issues every year of his NFL career. I would be nervous about giving him a long term deal.

Heath will get a starting job somewhere. He played SS in 2018 but is much better suited for FS.

Joe Thomas is a solid player. It is amazing that the Cowboys signed him to a 1.8M per year contract the same year that KC signed Anthony Hitchens to a 9M per year deal. They're very similar from a talent perspective.

Frazier is unlikely to make the team this year. Woods, Heath and Iloka are the top 3. Draft pick Wilson likely makes the team. They might not keep a 5th Safety. If they do then Frazier is competing with Darian Thompson (6-2, 212) who started 16 games for the Giants in 2017 at FS which indicates he has better coverage ability than Frazier but Thompson has more length (6-2 vs 6-0) and projects to be better at SS than FS. Frazier's playing time was very limited even after Heath injured his wrist and played with 1 hand late in the season and playoffs. Frazier's best chance is to keep his weight down around 210 to maximize his speed as much as possible.

March-Lillard was a star of the bottom of the roster players in the pre-season last year but he won't get many snaps in the regular season unless 2 or 3 other LBs are out for the same games. He should be cheap to retain.

Sua-Filo has a lot of competition:
2019 OL (they probably keep 9, but 8 or 10 possible)
Tyron
C.Williams
Frederick
Martin
La'el
McGovern
Fleming
Looney

The top 8 OL above seem like locks to make the roster. That likely leaves 1 spot for Sua-Filo to compete with multiple young players.

Jarwin can't be extended until after this season. His 2019 performance will determine his value.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Jerry is sit

Jerry is sweating the dollars to pay Amari and Dak "Mr. Big Monies" Prescott.
I see only two of these scrubs worth keeping at 1-year $800k.
And, are you nuts, Yankee oaf? Jarwin on the bubble?????
Go to your room!

Another awful post. What's new?

 

[Typhus]

Sure. As soon as dak Marries a woman who makes
More than Tom Brady in her career we can get to the patriot way of spending.

There should be a cap on what your wife makes for NFL players only,, not us poor folks.

 

[OmerV]

Dallas sucks at managing the cap. Jerry needs to go to New England and yank off Bob Kraft's M.O.

They have been able to retain top players (Martin, Smith, Frederick, Lawrence),which not every team can do, so that isn’t bad. I expect they will also find a way to retain Zeke, Dak was and Cooper as well.

People need to quit citing New England in a way that suggests the Cowboys suck because they aren’t the same level. If that is accurate then there are 30 teams besides the Cowboys that suck.

 

[Mr_437]

Brown will get a big contract somewhere to be a full time starter. The Cowboys will sign either Jones or Brown but not both.

M.Collins might be the most underrated player on the team but he has had injury issues every year of his NFL career. I would be nervous about giving him a long term deal.

Heath will get a starting job somewhere. He played SS in 2018 but is much better suited for FS.

Joe Thomas is a solid player. It is amazing that the Cowboys signed him to a 1.8M per year contract the same year that KC signed Anthony Hitchens to a 9M per year deal. They're very similar from a talent perspective.

Frazier is unlikely to make the team this year. Woods, Heath and Iloka are the top 3. Draft pick Wilson likely makes the team. They might not keep a 5th Safety. If they do then Frazier is competing with Darian Thompson (6-2, 212) who started 16 games for the Giants in 2017 at FS which indicates he has better coverage ability than Frazier but Thompson has more length (6-2 vs 6-0) and projects to be better at SS than FS. Frazier's playing time was very limited even after Heath injured his wrist and played with 1 hand late in the season and playoffs. Frazier's best chance is to keep his weight down around 210 to maximize his speed as much as possible.

March-Lillard was a star of the bottom of the roster players in the pre-season last year but he won't get many snaps in the regular season unless 2 or 3 other LBs are out for the same games. He should be cheap to retain.

Sua-Filo has a lot of competition:
2019 OL (they probably keep 9, but 8 or 10 possible)
Tyron
C.Williams
Frederick
Martin
La'el
McGovern
Fleming
Looney

The top 8 OL above seem like locks to make the roster. That likely leaves 1 spot for Sua-Filo to compete with multiple young players.

Jarwin can't be extended until after this season. His 2019 performance will determine his value.

Agree on Brown...a guy with a "chip on his shoulder" will bet on himself vs signing early for less. Think DAL would sign Jones over AB.

You think Heath will start somewhere else? I was thinking a similar deal to the on he's on to remain a Cowboy would do the job, but maybe not.

I see Collins injuries as a chance to sign him early, and although he's been hurt he's played in most of the games.

SS will be interesting. I don't just put Wilson (33 inch arms wow) ahead of Frazier because DW has to prove it, first. Also, both these guys are 6th rounders. Thompson is 6'2 w/ 30 inch arms and runs a 4.7 (40)...Frazier is 6'0 w/ 32 inch arms and runs a 4.5 (40). I like Thompson and look forward to the battle at SS, at best I'd say the length is a push.

I'd keep 9 OL and would pick a rookie over XSF unless he's signed up till 2021.

I like Jarwin more than most, and I think another year if watching Witten will improve his routes...RFA so he's controllable.

Good stuff, X

 

[Crazed Liotta Eyes]

Agree on Brown...a guy with a "chip on his shoulder" will bet on himself vs signing early for less. Think DAL would sign Jones over AB.

You think Heath will start somewhere else? I was thinking a similar deal to the on he's on to remain a Cowboy would do the job, but maybe not.

I see Collins injuries as a chance to sign him early, and although he's been hurt he's played in most of the games.

SS will be interesting. I don't just put Wilson (33 inch arms wow) ahead of Frazier because DW has to prove it, first. Also, both these guys are 6th rounders. Thompson is 6'2 w/ 30 inch arms and runs a 4.7 (40)...Frazier is 6'0 w/ 32 inch arms and runs a 4.5 (40). I like Thompson and look forward to the battle at SS, at best I'd say the length is a push.

I'd keep 9 OL and would pick a rookie over XSF unless he's signed up till 2021.

I like Jarwin more than most, and I think another year if watching Witten will improve his routes...RFA so he's controllable.

Good stuff, X

Loving the civil discussion about an interesting topic. No insults and accusations. Great thread @Mr_437. I also didn't know Frazier was that fast.

 

[John813]

IMO Brown will get paid a decent contract here or elsewhere. 6-9mil aav if he has another decent/good year in the slot. May be worth keeping at that range if he does.

Collins is a tough one to determine. Flashed some potential/hype his rookie year but injuries have always hampered him at some point each season. IMO he's an above average pass rusher from the 3-tech, below average against the run and has the traits Rod likes.
If Hill shows something this year I think they let him walk unless he has an "All-pro" year, which I highly doubt.
Think the Hill pick sealed his fate here.

For Heath/Frazier, one of the two will get a new deal, the other walks IMO. I would say Frazier would be the guy, but they do seem to like Jeff, and he probably will take another "cheap" deal to stick around. Both are key guys on ST, but are limited on defense.

I could see Thomas stick around. Lee will probably not return next year and if he doesn't we don't have much depth behind him.

Definitely see them tagging Jarwin with a #2 unless he has a dud of a season in 19.

 

[Kaiser]

Sure. As soon as dak Marries a woman who makes
More than Tom Brady in her career we can get to the patriot way of spending.

And Tom Brady had 300 Million dollars in the bank when they got married. The discount he gave New England was probably one quarter of what he was making in interest on his investments each year.

 

[Mr_437]

Loving the civil discussion about an interesting topic. No insults and accusations. Great thread @Mr_437. I also didn't know Frazier was that fast.

Appreciate you, Bro..we need some fresh topics.

 

[HungryLion]

There’s also some great value in the cornerback market next year:

Logan Ryan, TEN
Jimmy Smith, BAL
Bradley Roby, HOU
Joe Haden, PIT
Ronald Darby, PHI (If he bounces back from injury PHI will never be able to afford him)
Brandon Carr, BAL (impressive career resurrection)
Tramon Williams, GB
Jonathan Joseph, HOU
Darqueze Denard, CIN
Trae Waynes, MIN
Eric Rowe, MIA
Jason Verrett, SF
Daryl Worley, OAK
Brian Poole, NYJ


Dallas hasn’t had great luck spending early picks on corners since Terrence Newman (I don’t know if you count Byron jones or not). It is very possible both your starting CBs in 2020 are on that list.

That is a solid list of vet FA CB’s.

I tend to agree.

While I think Brown is a quality slot corner. I wouldn’t get into a bidding war over him. I think he is replaceable.

The results are still pending on Byron and Chido as
Far as how successful the picks were.

 

[Mr_437]

IMO Brown will get paid a decent contract here or elsewhere. 6-9mil aav if he has another decent/good year in the slot. May be worth keeping at that range if he does.

Collins is a tough one to determine. Flashed some potential/hype his rookie year but injuries have always hampered him at some point each season. IMO he's an above average pass rusher from the 3-tech, below average against the run and has the traits Rod likes.
If Hill shows something this year I think they let him walk unless he has an "All-pro" year, which I highly doubt.
Think the Hill pick sealed his fate here.

For Heath/Frazier, one of the two will get a new deal, the other walks IMO. I would say Frazier would be the guy, but they do seem to like Jeff, and he probably will take another "cheap" deal to stick around. Both are key guys on ST, but are limited on defense.

I could see Thomas stick around. Lee will probably not return next year and if he doesn't we don't have much depth behind him.

Definitely see them tagging Jarwin with a #2 unless he has a dud of a season in 19.

Wow, $6-9M for AB would be a good come up for him, and at the same time I don't see DAL paying him that...but he will be cheaper than BJ.

Trysten Hill could ball out, yet he still needs to partner to share snaps with him. Do I trust this team to draft another 3T next year...no. Do I trust them to bring in a guy to the level of Collins on the market... I have my doubts. Maybe Daniel Wise can redshirt and step in next year.

Interesting take on Frazier/Heath. I prefer Frazier too. Also, I've never counted out Heath and the love this staff has for him, either.

Total agreement on Thomas.

Jarwin, 2nd round tender...golden.

 

[817Gill]

These are the guys the team will draft to replace annually like we are seeing with Hill and Collins.
You pay your foundational Pro-Bowl/All-Pro players (Dak, Zeke, Amari, Jaylon), and you draft to fill depth and re-up on solid starters.

Guys like Brown and Collins are solid starters, but you can find guys in mid to later rounds that can fill their spots. Especially since we draft well enough to find guys that late, considering most of the guys on the list have been late round picks themselves.

 

[John813]

Wow, $6-9M for AB would be a good come up for him, and at the same time I don't see DAL paying him that...but he will be cheaper than BJ.

Trysten Hill could ball out, yet he still needs to partner to share snaps with him. Do I trust this team to draft another 3T next year...no. Do I trust them to bring in a guy to the level of Collins on the market... I have my doubts. Maybe Daniel Wise can redshirt and step in next year.

Interesting take on Frazier/Heath. I prefer Frazier too. Also, I've never counted out Heath and the love this staff has for him, either.

Total agreement on Thomas.

Jarwin, 2nd round tender...golden.

The dt market is a weird one to me. If Collins puts together a good year then I could see his agent getting some good offers and hellh still be very young as a FA . Maybe cut Crawford and re-sign MC if needed .

Iirc the slot market has risen quite a bit . I think it's at 7-8 mil for the "top" guys.

I think Jones is a goner, so I could see them keep Brown if he takes a fair deal . Cheaper, and has played ok in 2 out of 3 years so far.

I'm high on Wise, but curious how he fell completely out of the draft.

 

[buybuydandavis]

I think we will be forced to let Brown go for finances. The league is hurting for good CBs and I think he will fetch more on the open market than we can afford.

Someone will offer Brown real money. We won't. Maybe depends a little on whether we extend Byron. A little. He should expect to make a lot elsewhere.

Maliek's future is more doubtful. If they like him, we should offer a cheap extension and see if he bites. I think he has upside now that they've gotten him in the right size shoes.

 

[buybuydandavis]

I don’t disagree with you that keeping some of these guys would be good. The problem is, when most of them hit FA, there are too many teams more than willing to overpay them. What the Bills paid Cole Beasley is a good example.

That's why you offer them contracts on the cheap pre season in their contract year. Like we tried with Beasley. The guys who bite are part of your future, and worth development snaps. Guys who don't aren't part of your future, and no longer receive development consideration.