Manwiththeplan;3816745 said:
It seems you're making my argument for me. Mayock never said that McFadden was going to be out of the league in 3 years, just he wasn't worth a top 20 pick and you can't say he was wrong on that. I like McFadden, more than Mendenhall, but I don't see how you can knock someone for predicting Mendenhall > McFadden when no one else was saying that and atleast statistically you can argue that.
I can't say he's wrong about that? Okay, and you cannot say he's right about that either?
Why? Because we're talking about opportunities and production.
McFadden has shown the more opportunities he's given the more productive he is. Last season was McFadden's first with more than 200 carries.
Had McFadden put up a couple of 200+ carry seasons averaging 3.3 YPR or something, then you might have a case.
Mayock's beef was that McFadden didn't possess enough leg-drive and was tackled too often on first-contact. These reasons according to Mayock were the major reasons why he wouldn't have taken McFadden in the Top 20.
Mayock didn't even have McFadden in his Top 10 players (not draft order, but how he ranked his players), but he had guys like Philip Merling, Vernon Gholston and Leodis McKelvin.
That's been my point the whole time; if Mayock is really a cut-above and some guru, then why was he falling in-line with the assesments of lesser credible analysts like McShay and Kiper on guys like Gholston, Merling, etc.
I realize that's a hard question to pin on you, but I think it's valid.
IMO, Mayock hasn't been more on-point with the draft anymore than Kiper & McShay. In this particular draft, the one time he did deviate from the consensus (McFadden), I think he was off-base.
I thought Mayock was off-base then and still do regarding his criticisms of McFadden.
Here is a guy last year that averaged 5.2 YPR. He had just two runs of more than 50+ yards (57 & 51), so it's not as if he skewed his average with a couple of 80+ yard runs. McFadden's also played on of the league's poorest passing offenses. That's a guy who is churning out yards.
Here's the bottomline for me regarding Mayock:
Mike Mayock
> Kiper & McShay...as a draft analyst
Why? Because he gives the listener/reader detailed reasons, specifics and information as to why he's come to a conclusion on a particular player.
However, I don't think Mayock is distinguishly better than Kiper or McShay in predicting how player will perform at an NFL level.