Mazi is the least productive 1st round DT in 20 years

beware_d-ware · Apr 30, 2023

Couldn't find a database so I had to hand-check this.

Anyway, there's been 63 DTs drafted 1st round since 2003, and none of them have had backfield production as poor as Mazi Smith. The dude had a career 6 TFLs and 0.5 sacks.

The only other guys in that zip code are

-Arik Armstead (5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Michael Brockers (11 TFLs, 2 sacks)
-Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Justin Harrell (9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-John McCargo (9 TFLs, 0.5 sacks).

If we're wanting a NT, I would be a little nervous.

Here's the list I was going off of, feel free to fact check me.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions-round/dt

ghst187 · Apr 30, 2023

I think everyone wanted a DT and esp a 1T so badly that they overlook the fact that his tape isn’t good. I 1000% agree with needed a big upgrade along the DL and esp at run-stuffing 1T but I didn’t see much talent in this draft, which is why I thought paying for someone line Robinson in FA was a much better route, esp with the window we have right now.
Sincerely hope I am wrong.

DFWJC · Apr 30, 2023

Okay, on 4/30/23, can we count

beware_d-ware
ghst187

as saying Mazi will be a colossal bust.

Got it.

Does anyone else want to go on record?

:popcorn:

fivetwos · Apr 30, 2023

Judging 1techs by sacks is probably why we never bothered drafting the truly talented ones early.

Now we finally did and that’s a problem too.

Malhavoc · Apr 30, 2023

You’ll have to keep the receipts because like last year most will be as silent as a mouse when we look back.

beware_d-ware · Apr 30, 2023

Heck, if you just want to break it down into NT types, we've got

Dexter Lawrence (18 TFLs, 10 sacks)
Vita Vea (15 TFLs, 9.5 sacks)
Kenny Clark (20 TFLs, 6.5 sacks)
Danny Shelton (23.5 TFLs, 10.5 sacks)
Malcolm Brown (16 TFLs, 6.5 sacks)
Star Lolutelai (21.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks)
Sylvester Williams (20.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks)
Dontari Poe (21.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks)
Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
Marcell Dareus (20 TFLs, 11 sacks)
Nick Fairley (27.5 TFLs, 13 sacks)
Dan Williams (25 TFLs, 7 sacks)

and I'm getting tired of copying these. That takes you back to 2010.

Those are your big-*** stuffers who aren't expected to have college production, because they're "freeing up teammates". And only two of them had fewer than 15 TFLs and less than 6 sacks. Mazi Smith and Phil Taylor.

We are deep into outlier territory here.

Stash · Apr 30, 2023

beware_d-ware said:
Couldn't find a database so I had to hand-check this.

Anyway, there's been 63 DTs drafted 1st round since 2003, and none of them have had backfield production as poor as Mazi Smith. The dude had a career 6 TFLs and 0.5 sacks.

The only other guys in that zip code are

-Arik Armstead (5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Michael Brockers (11 TFLs, 2 sacks)
-Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Justin Harrell (9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-John McCargo (9 TFLs, 0.5 sacks).

If we're wanting a NT, I would be a little nervous.

Here's the list I was going off of, feel free to fact check me.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions-round/dt

If these are the numbers you’re looking at from a nose tackle, I think the problem starts there.

I’d be more interested in the fact that the Michigan defense ranked #7 against the run.

TheMarathonContinues · Apr 30, 2023

beware_d-ware said:
Couldn't find a database so I had to hand-check this.

Anyway, there's been 63 DTs drafted 1st round since 2003, and none of them have had backfield production as poor as Mazi Smith. The dude had a career 6 TFLs and 0.5 sacks.

The only other guys in that zip code are

-Arik Armstead (5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Michael Brockers (11 TFLs, 2 sacks)
-Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Justin Harrell (9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-John McCargo (9 TFLs, 0.5 sacks).

If we're wanting a NT, I would be a little nervous.

Here's the list I was going off of, feel free to fact check me.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions-round/dt

He also had 88 tackles. Not sure your point. IS it that he's not a pass rusher? |OR that he wasn't asked to rush the passer?

TheMarathonContinues · Apr 30, 2023

Stash said:
If these are the numbers you’re looking at from a nose tackle, I think the problem starts there.

I’d be more interested in the fact that the Michigan defense ranked #7 against the run.

And he had 88 tackles too. Now I wouldn't use tackles as a gauge on how good someone is but if they were #7 against the run and he's racking up tackles. That says far more than his sack number.

DUO_CORE · Apr 30, 2023

We still have the receipt; should we ask for a refund?

beware_d-ware · Apr 30, 2023

TheMarathonContinues said:
He also had 88 tackles. Not sure your point. IS it that he's not a pass rusher? |OR that he wasn't asked to rush the passer?

I don't like tackle stats at all. Lots of those come down to the grader.

Backfield plays are more definitive, and also project better to the NFL. TFLs per game are 3 times more correlated to rookie-contract success than tackles per game for DTs, and are the single most predictive counting stat in general for both college DTs and DEs.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-def?page=0

Sonny Koufax · Apr 30, 2023

ghst187 said:
I think everyone wanted a DT and esp a 1T so badly that they overlook the fact that his tape isn’t good. I 1000% agree with needed a big upgrade along the DL and esp at run-stuffing 1T but I didn’t see much talent in this draft, which is why I thought paying for someone line Robinson in FA was a much better route, esp with the window we have right now.
Sincerely hope I am wrong.

What a joke

Stash · Apr 30, 2023

TheMarathonContinues said:
And he had 88 tackles too. Now I wouldn't use tackles as a gauge on how good someone is but if they were #7 against the run and he's racking up tackles. That says far more than his sack number.

If you’re expecting sacks from your nose tackle, you’re barking up the wrong tree.

Pass2Run · Apr 30, 2023

beware_d-ware said:
Couldn't find a database so I had to hand-check this.

Anyway, there's been 63 DTs drafted 1st round since 2003, and none of them have had backfield production as poor as Mazi Smith. The dude had a career 6 TFLs and 0.5 sacks.

The only other guys in that zip code are

-Arik Armstead (5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Michael Brockers (11 TFLs, 2 sacks)
-Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Justin Harrell (9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-John McCargo (9 TFLs, 0.5 sacks).

If we're wanting a NT, I would be a little nervous.

Here's the list I was going off of, feel free to fact check me.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions-round/dt

Two words: Dan Quinn.

The guy has all the tools and mentality to be a great player.

Sacks aren't his role. He's a run stuffer..but look at his hirries and pressures. Broaddus was talking about the scheme in college not suiting him well, and the fact his technique is flat-footed and raw.

I was talking about possibly drafting him and most said he.wouldn't be the pick bc we don't spend early picks on 2 down DTs...

I pretty much agreed..but we were wrong. I think most didn't have him on their radar.

CATCH17 · Apr 30, 2023

Im not a fan of the value of a player like this.

It’s like drafting a middle linebacker in round 1. No thanks.

rambo2 · Apr 30, 2023

CATCH17 said:
Im not a fan of the value of a player like this.

It’s like drafting a middle linebacker in round 1. No thanks.

Are you a fan of the big hole in the defense that has been there for over a decade?

Pass2Run · Apr 30, 2023

Don't forget 9.99 RAS and Dan Quinn.

The potenial is obviously there.

CATCH17 · Apr 30, 2023

rambo2 said:
Are you a fan of the big hole in the defense that has been there for over a decade?

I think the run defense is fine when everyone is healthy.

They didn’t need to use a round 1 player to fix it and nothing he did at Michigan makes me think he’s some sure fire answer either.

darthseinfeld · Apr 30, 2023

beware_d-ware said:
Couldn't find a database so I had to hand-check this.

Anyway, there's been 63 DTs drafted 1st round since 2003, and none of them have had backfield production as poor as Mazi Smith. The dude had a career 6 TFLs and 0.5 sacks.

The only other guys in that zip code are

-Arik Armstead (5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Michael Brockers (11 TFLs, 2 sacks)
-Phil Taylor (9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-Justin Harrell (9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks)
-John McCargo (9 TFLs, 0.5 sacks).

If we're wanting a NT, I would be a little nervous.

Here's the list I was going off of, feel free to fact check me.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions-round/dt

Payne had 5 tfl's and 3 sacks

beware_d-ware · Apr 30, 2023

darthseinfeld said:
Payne had 5 tfl's and 3 sacks

Now THAT's a good catch. Thank you for that.

He's not listed on that draft history page... dude was picked right after Vita Vea and the site just straight skipped over him.

Mazi is the least productive 1st round DT in 20 years

beware_d-ware

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ghst187

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DFWJC

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fivetwos

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Malhavoc

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beware_d-ware

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Stash

TheMarathonContinues

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TheMarathonContinues

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DUO_CORE

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beware_d-ware

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Sonny Koufax

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Stash

Pass2Run

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CATCH17

1st Round Pick

rambo2

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Pass2Run

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CATCH17

1st Round Pick

darthseinfeld

Groupthink Guru

beware_d-ware

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