Mel Kiper's initial draft prediction

junk

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InmanRoshi said:
Does anyone think Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas, Kevin Greene, Pat Swilling, Willie McGinnest, Charles Haley with the 49ers, were all multi-year All Pros because they were so phenomenal at dropping back into pass coverage?

Its not like these guys are covering WR's man on man. They're jamming guys at the line of scrimmage and dropping back into a zone. The main transition is a mental one because they have to read the scheme and react accordingly.

If I was an offensive coordinator and saw Kiwi lining up as a 3-4 OLB, I'd continually run TEs and backs into his "zone". Once I got bored picking up yards that way, I'd run right at him for awhile and let my pulling guards get under him as he stands there in a 2 point stance.
 

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junk said:
If I was an offensive coordinator and saw Kiwi lining up as a 3-4 OLB, I'd continually run TEs and backs into his "zone". Once I got bored picking up yards that way, I'd run right at him for awhile and let my pulling guards get under him as he stands there in a 2 point stance.

Do you think Terrell Suggs is a phenomenal pass or run defender in the 3-4?
 

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InmanRoshi said:
Do you think Terrell Suggs is a phenomenal pass or run defender in the 3-4?

Suggs is a tweener/hybrid. He was an undersized DE. Guys like Ware, Merriman in same mode.


Kiwi is a skinny 6-7 DE. There is nothing 3-4 OLB about him. This is mad. Someone post a reputable draft bio that suggests or states Kiwi will be used as a 3-4 OLB. Please - post that someone.:laugh2:
 

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Baltimore doesn't run a 3-4 and they were 9th in the league vs run with Suggs at RDE and Ray Lewis only playing 6 games.

2004 They were 8th vs run in a 3-4 with Suggs at SOLB.

2003 They were 6th.

I'm not a fan of either, but I predict Kiwi is 50-80% of the player that Suggs is.
 

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Inman drops a bunch of "haller" or very good 3-4 OLB type names and tries to fit the Kiwi square peg into a round hole.


Assuming you leave Ware where he belongs. Where exactly are you lining Kiwi up in our 3-4 Inman? Lets play this out.
 

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Nors said:
Suggs is a tweener/hybrid. He was an undersized DE. Guys like Ware, Merriman in same mode.


Kiwi is a skinny 6-7 DE. There is nothing 3-4 OLB about him. This is mad. Someone post a reputable draft bio that suggests or states Kiwi will be used as a 3-4 OLB. Please - post that someone.:laugh2:

He's a 6'7" DE who is 255-260 lbs who is a freak of nature athlete. This isn't Julius Peppers type of body and bone structure. This is Jevon Kearse type of body and bone structure. The guy's problem is not athletic ability, I don't know how many times this has to be stressed. The probem is he's weak at attack when he's asked to maul as a 4-3 defensive end.

It amazes me the inability of people to grasp the fact that we play a 4 man line in nickel situations, and that nickel compromises 40% of the defensive snaps ... and usually the most important defensive snaps as its usually all 3rd down situations and at the end of games. Terrell Suggs didn't start a single game as a rookie, but he was a difference maker because he racked up 12 sacks and 6 forced fumbles just playing 4 man line nickel packages. Who is scheduled to take Greg Ellis' place as a pass rusher in a 4 man line if we drop him? Or even if we don't drop him, who takes his place if he is injured? Our pass rush is already mediocre (at best) as it is now. We better get a great free safety if we don't find someone who can step in (or upgrade) Ellis' spot because QB's are going to have 5-7 seconds to throw the ball otherwise. To hell with Michael Huff, we better have Ed Reed and Ronnie Lott back there.
 

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InmanRoshi said:
Do you think Terrell Suggs is a phenomenal pass or run defender in the 3-4?

Nope. He isn't the same type of player as Kiwi either. He certainly isn't 6'7". Like I said, I'd relish the opportunity to run and pass towards a guy like Kiwi.

You're forgetting the tenets of Bill Parcells man on man football in your desire to load both sides with elite pass rushers. Someone has to account for that TE in the run and pass game.

Mark the calendar because I totally agree with Nors on this. I can't see Kiwi as a strong side backer in the 3-4.
 

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InmanRoshi said:
He's a 6'7" DE who is 255-260 lbs who is a freak of nature athlete. This isn't Julius Peppers type of body and bone structure. This is Jevon Kearse type of body and bone structure. The guy's problem is not athletic ability, I don't know how many times this has to be stressed. The probem is he's weak at attack when he's asked to maul as a 4-3 defensive end.

It amazes me the inability of people to grasp the fact that we play a 4 man line in nickel situations, and that nickel compromises 40% of the defensive snaps ... and usually the most important defensive snaps as its usually all 3rd down situations. Terrell Suggs didn't start a single game as a rookie, but he was a difference maker because he racked up 12 sacks and 6 forced fumbles just playing nickel packages. Who is scheduled to take Greg Ellis' place as a pass rusher in a 4 man line if we drop him? Or even if we don't drop him, who takes his place if he is injured? Our pass rush is already mediocre (at best) as it is now. We better get a great free safety if we don't find someone who can step in (or upgrade) Ellis' spot because QB's are going to have 5-7 seconds to throw the ball otherwise. To hell with Michael Huff, we better have Ed Reed and Ronnie Lott back there.

You won't see any nickel if the team is getting first downs on 1st and 2nd. That'll happen if you can't stop the run by trotting a 6'7" DE out at SOLB.

Why not draft a guy that can do both? Carpenter? Finished product instead of a project or a part time player.

Remember Suggs' first start as a LB? Eddie George literally abused him that day.

I can't justify drafting a part time player or a project that may or may not work out with the first round pick.
 

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You people can't get over the fact that he's 6'7" and you think he's some Too Tall Jones or Chris Canty clone. If you've ever watched him play, you know he's not. He's far more Jevon Kearse. And I can almost promise you that Parcells will not hold height against a pass rusher. Virtually all of Parcells and Belichick's 3-4 OLB's were tall, angular defensive ends in college. LT, Vrabel, Colvin, McGinnest, Slade. How many of Parcells former 3-4 LB's were actually LB's in college? Carson is the only one I can think of, and Carson wasn't drafted during Parcells tenure or to fit into Parcell's 3-4 defense.

I have very strong reservations that Bobby Carpenter can put his hand on the ground and rush the passer against NFL quality offensive tackles. He's a better version of Scott Fujita. He might can come on a blitz and catch an unsuspecting OT nappig. But putting his hand on the ground on a 4 man nickel package and going mono-y-mono against an offensive tackle? Im not sold on that at all. And I've watched him at least 7-8 times.
 

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InmanRoshi said:
You people can't get over the fact that he's 6'7" and you think he's some Too Tall Jones or Chris Canty clone. If you've ever watched him play, you know he's not. He's far more Jevon Kearse. And I can almost promise you that Parcells will not hold height against a pass rusher. Virtually all of Parcells and Belichick's 3-4 OLB's were tall, angular defensive ends in college. LT, Vrabel, Colvin, McGinnest, Slade. How many of Parcells former 3-4 LB's were actually LB's in college? Carson is the only one I can think of, and Carson wasn't drafted during Parcells tenure or to fit into Parcell's 3-4 defense.

I have very strong reservations that Bobby Carpenter can put his hand on the ground and rush the passer against NFL quality offensive tackles. He's a better version of Scott Fujita. He might can come on a blitz and catch an unsuspecting OT nappig. But putting his hand on the ground on a 4 man nickel package and going mono-y-mono against an offensive tackle? Im not sold on that at all. And I've watched him at least 7-8 times.

"You people"? What do you mean by that?

So, he's Jevon Kearse. Jevon Kearse plays some LB type things occasionally, but its just moving him around to rush the passer for the most part. Parcells defense is pretty basic. If he isn't playing WOLB, he'll have to play SOLB. That means he is going to have to be strong at the POA in the run game...something you yourself said he struggled with.

I have very strong reservations that Kiwi can turn his hips and back pedal well enough to be adequate in coverage. He might be able to get to the passer, but taking on the POA in the run game? Im not sold on that at all. Granted, he won't be asked to cover all the time...but he has to be good enough to do it some of the time. And he'd have to be strong against the run. Its simple leverage being 6'7" and playing out of a 2 point stance. People will be able to get under you and drive you back unless you are built like a tree. Kiwi isn't. How'd Greg Ellis do out of a 2 point stance?

LT was an All American linebacker. Carl Banks was a LB. Burnett was a LB.

Carpenter, IMO, is a much better version of Fujita. He has experience rushing the passer. He is solid in coverage and against the run. He actually brings some intensity to the field...something Dallas lacks as well. A versatile player that looks like the prototype 3-4 SOLB to me.

If you are right and Kiwi is the Cowboys' starting SOLB next year, I'll be shocked, but I'll be the first to give you credit for have the foresight to pick up on that. I just don't see it.
 

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As I said, Carson was drafted before Parcells tenure with the Giants. He was a HOF LB in any system. LT was a DL his first two years at UNC, and was a pass rush specialist at LB his final two years. He was hardly a traditional LB. Burnett will be moved inside this year, which is his more suitable position in the 3-4. I would hardly call him appropos of what Parcells wants from the position.

Traditionally, generally all of Parcells and Belichicks OLB's in the 3-4 have been defensive ends in college. All 4 of Belichick's OLB's were DE's in college. McGinnest was a DE at USC. Mike Vrabel was a DE at Ohio State. Rosie Colvin was a DE at Purdue. Bunta-Cain was DE at Cal. There's a reason for that. Most college LB's can't pull off rip and swim moves against NFL offensive tackles. They get engulfed and eaten alive. As Burnett was this year when he tried.
 

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Nors said:
Kiwi is 6-7, gangly and lacks NFL strength. He has abou nill chance of having any Roll as a LB in our 3-4. He better prey he lands in the right 4-3 scheme. He'd get eaten alive as a 3-4 DE. He is dropping like a rock, this years Antajj draft day?:laugh2:
I admit I haven't seen Kiwi play so I want to see what his workouts will show. We all should have a better idea of where Kiwi really belongs in the draft. Until the workouts, most everything about him is just speculation.....
 

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InmanRoshi said:
Does anyone think Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas, Kevin Greene, Pat Swilling, Willie McGinnest, Charles Haley with the 49ers, were all multi-year All Pros because they were so phenomenal at dropping back into pass coverage?

Its not like these guys are covering WR's man on man. They're jamming guys at the line of scrimmage and dropping back into a zone. The main transition is a mental one because they have to read the scheme and react accordingly.
If Kiwi shows in his workouts that he can handle being a 3-4 OLB/DE, then I'd be in favor of the 'Boys drafting him (IF Huff isn't available that is)! I would love to get another pass-rusher opposite Ware.....
 

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InmanRoshi said:
You people can't get over the fact that he's 6'7" and you think he's some Too Tall Jones or Chris Canty clone. If you've ever watched him play, you know he's not. He's far more Jevon Kearse. And I can almost promise you that Parcells will not hold height against a pass rusher. Virtually all of Parcells and Belichick's 3-4 OLB's were tall, angular defensive ends in college. LT, Vrabel, Colvin, McGinnest, Slade. How many of Parcells former 3-4 LB's were actually LB's in college? Carson is the only one I can think of, and Carson wasn't drafted during Parcells tenure or to fit into Parcell's 3-4 defense.


Inman:

You misjudged - I see Kiwi here a lot in Boston. He has zero LB characteristics. I have access to some insides at BC and pre called his not turning Pro last year - not ready physically. He is a gangly 6-7 End who best fits a 4-3 DE scheme.

He can't play opposite Ware as a LB in our 3-4- you can book that one.

Again, please post 1 draft bio stating a 3-4 OLB prospect and connected to Kiwi. Does not exist.
 

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5mics said:
I admit I haven't seen Kiwi play so I want to see what his workouts will show. We all should have a better idea of where Kiwi really belongs in the draft. Until the workouts, most everything about him is just speculation.....

Actually quite contrair. There is no speculation at the NFL scouting level. They arae all over this stuff. In fact Pioli once stated that by combine 95% of all his ratings and evaluations are done.



Please, ANYONE, posta darft article or bio that talks of Kiwi moving to OLB in the NFL. Its a lark - Kiwi can't do it.
 

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Nors said:
Please, ANYONE, posta darft article or bio that talks of Kiwi moving to OLB in the NFL. Its a lark - Kiwi can't do it.


Strengths:
Excellent natural pass rusher who knows how to get upfield...Tremendous physical specimen...Is an outstanding athlete with good speed and quickness who moves well...Has a good frame with long arms and can easily add more weight...Very productive throughout his career and a player opponents must constantly be aware of...Smart and displays top intangibles...Still has a lot of upside.

Weaknesses:
Doesn't always play with good leverage due to his height...Will get pushed around due to his lack of strength and bulk...Has trouble shedding blocks...Still sub par as a run defender...Needs to develop additional pass rush techniques...Doesn't always play up to his talent and abilities...There is a chance he might have to move to outside linebacker at the next level...Might have a high "bust" factor.

Notes:
Grandfather Benedicto Kiwanuka was elected Uganda's first prime minister in 1961 and then later assassinated by Idi Amin in 1972...Is very proud of his Ugandan heritage...Similar to Simeon Rice when he came out...Still has some question marks but the physical tools are there for him to be a premier pass rusher in the pros.


http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/de/mathiaskiwanuka.html
 

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BC star Kiwanuka drawing notice
Lightly recruited defensive end from Cathedral finishes as an All-American

By Michael Pointer
michael.pointerindystar.com

Meet Mathias Kiwanuka
• High school: Cathedral, Class of 2001.
• College: Boston College.
• Position: Defensive end.
• Height: 6-7.
• Weight: 262 pounds.
• Honors: Won the Lombardi Award, given to the nation's top lineman. A two-time All-Big East Conference selection and All-Atlantic Coast Conference choice this season. Also named to the American Football Coaches Association All-American team this season.
• Family history: Kiwanuka's parents moved to the United States from their native Uganda, where his grandfather was elected the nation's first prime minister in 1961 and was assassinated in 1972 following dictator Idi Amin's bloody coup.
• Pro potential: Listed as one of the top 16 senior players in the country by Pro Football Weekly and the only defensive end to make the list. . . . Some draft analysts believe he will be an outside rush linebacker in the NFL.
• What could have been? Kiwanuka likely would have been a perfect fit at Purdue, where the Boilermakers have turned out a bevy of stellar defensive ends during coach Joe Tiller's nine seasons.
But Purdue -- along with nearly every other major Division I program -- didn't recruit him, largely because he struggled to stay above 200 pounds in high school.





Boston College assistant football coach Don Horton remembers the night he stumbled upon a future All-American.

Horton, the Eagles' primary recruiter in the Midwest, was scouting two prospects during a Cathedral High School game in September 2000.
He landed both recruits, but it was yet another player that had him reaching for the phone.

"He said, 'Who is No. 90 on your team?' " recalled former Cathedral coach Rick Streiff, now at North Central. "I said, 'Mathias Kiwanuka.'
"He said, 'Can you spell that for me?' "
The player nicknamed "Kiwi" was a lightly-recruited defensive end and tight end until that point. Indiana was the only school from a power conference showing much interest.

NFL scouts are interested now.

Kiwanuka signed with Boston College the following February and won the Lombardi Award this season as the nation's top lineman. His college career ends today when the No. 19 Eagles play Boise State in the MPC Computers Bowl in Boise, Idaho.

Despite the honors, it has not been an easy senior season. Kiwanuka missed one game after suffering a knee injury and part of another after being ejected. That's the kind of scenario feared by any player who bypasses the NFL draft for one year when he would have been a high-round pick.
Kiwanuka said he has no regrets.

"The fans and the school just kind of took me as one of their own," the 6-7, 262-pound Kiwanuka said in a telephone interview last week. "If I would have had bigger offers on the table, I might not have ended up here. But they weren't (available), and it's worked out well for me."

Unnoticed early
Kiwanuka's talent was overlooked except by those closest to him. He played on his second Class 4A state championship team as a junior at Cathedral in 1999, but that team had five players who signed NCAA Division I letters of intent. Streiff said Kiwanuka might have been the most lightly recruited of the bunch.

He was a member of The Star's Super Team in 2000, but most of the publicity went to teammate Otis Shannon, who graduated as the state's all-time leading rusher.

"We certainly knew about him," Horton said. "But we didn't know if he was a football or basketball player. He was tall and lanky."

Kiwanuka weighed around 200 pounds during his senior year at Cathedral.
But BC saw some potential. The fact that it aggressively recruited teammate Jeremy Trueblood, a close friend who will start on the Eagles' offensive line today, didn't hurt. Horton came to watch Trueblood when he discovered Kiwanuka.

"We knew they could put some weight on him, but just how much could his body hold?" Streiff said. "Boston College rolled the dice. He and Jeremy were pretty tight, and having them both out there probably made him better, too."

Becoming a star at BC
He redshirted in 2001, then had five sacks and returned a fumble for a touchdown in 2002. He led the Big East in sacks with 11.5 in 2003 and had 24 quarterback hurries. He again led the conference with 11.5 sacks in 2004 and became a team leader in the process.

"Mathias is like a pied piper," Horton said. "People get around him and want to be close to him.

"Take the Virginia game. Things got a little hot. But as soon as they touched Mathias, the whole team erupted."

Kiwanuka suffered a right knee sprain when he was chop-blocked from behind by Virginia's Brad Butler during Boston College's 28-17 victory on Oct. 8. A melee ensued.

He was ejected later in the game after another confrontation with Butler, then missed the following game against Wake Forest because of the injury.
"The guys here took to my leadership because I was part of them, developing from a scout team player to where I'm at now," Kiwanuka said. "My situation embodies what we are at BC."

Taking lessons to pros

Kiwanuka said he learned something valuable from the injury, which lingered throughout the season.

"I was able to come out and put together a good game without necessarily practicing the whole week," he said. "That's a lesson I've learned that I'll take to the next level."

But was there ever a time when Kiwanuka kicked himself for not entering the NFL draft last April?

He had finished a bachelor's degree in psychology before the season. Boston College's dreams of an Atlantic Coast Conference title ended with back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina in November.
"No," he said. "Obviously, there were a couple of games we would like to have back. But the season as a whole, I'm definitely pleased with the way it worked out."

Kiwanuka plans to sign with an agent soon after today's game, then head west to a yet-to-be determined location for individual workouts. His next trip to his hometown might be for the National Football Scouting Combine in February at the RCA Dome.

"I consider myself to be a pretty humble person, but I'm pretty confident in my abilities," he said. "Maybe I didn't think I would end up an All-American when I got there. But put me in a one-on-one situation, I feel like I'm going to win."

Call Star reporter Michael Pointer at (317) 444-6641.

Copyright 2006 IndyStar.com. All rights reserved


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