More criticism of Julius Jones

[burmafrd]

Taking on Adam in stats is like taking on Michael Jordan in a game of one on one. Talk about getting owned.

 

[theogt]

Taking on Adam in stats is like taking on Michael Jordan in a game of one on one. Talk about getting owned.

I really don't think percy was owned here. Adams argument boiled down to Julius historically doing well on carries 11-20 and that didn't necessarily hold true for last season. That may have been because his carries weren't truly representative of what a RB would typically get in carries 11-20, but Adam didn't show that at all. He didn't say how many were non-typical (i.e., goalline or short yardage) and he certainly didn't show the percentage of non-typicals compared to...well...typical situations.

As for the "historical" runs part, first, we can pretty much throw out 2004, because Julius wasn't running anything like he did in 2004. That seems to be the biggest problem that even the Julius Jones defenders admit. If he's not running like he was in 2004, why assume those carries would have had the same results?

Secondly, we've already seen that the argument that he runs well in carries 11-20 doesn't hold true for 2006. So, we're relying on a single season's data (i.e., the 2005 season) to predict what he would have done in carries 11-20 in the final 5 games of 2006.

Call me unconvinced.

 

[percyhoward]

If you're just counting the last five regular season games, it was 2.9 YPC, not 2.3.

Like I said, the 2.3 is just with giving him 3 extra carries (12-14). IOW, what he would've had if the games had gone exactly as they did, but with JJ taking 3 of mb3's carries. But seriously, 2.3, 2.5, 2.9, none of these suggest that his ypc would have likely gone UP.

But you're talking about only 39 carries

Spread out over five games. It means 39 different chances, against a variety of defenses, good and bad, to take it to the house, or at least bust a 25-yarder, something to boost the ypc. If he'd done it just once, I wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

-- a disproportionate number of which were either red zone carries, short-yardage carries (including his only two third-and-1 carries all season, both of which he converted despite averaging "only" 2.5 YPC on them) or meaningless fourth-quarter carries when we were running out the clock. All of those situations tend to produce lower YPCs. Oh, and we won four out of those five games and lost the other only on a fluke.

Now we get into things I wasn't even talking about when I said his ypc would have gone down with more carries.

First, I'm not even sure that his percentage of these "low-YPC producing carries" was significantly greater in the second half of the season than it was in the first half. You didn't say that it was, and as theo pointed out, you certainly didn't provide any numbers to show that it was.

Second, even if it was significantly greater, it's mostly self-generating anyway. Low yardage red zone plays necesitate more red zone plays. If JJ was scoring from 15-20 yards out in the first half of the season, that would cut down considerably his number of those "bad" red zone carries. If he's gaining 2 yards on the same kind of play late in the season, well...the percentage of "bad" carries goes up.

But anyway, I didn't object to your including his "meaningless 4th qtr carries when we were running out the clock" in your "carries 11-20 4.60" number that you insisted was evidence that his ypc would likely go up.

Because throughout his career, he is effective on carries 11-20. A small sample of games isn't enough to disprove that fact.

You know yourself that it isn't only the size of the sample that matters, but also the precision with which it's taken. It's his durability that's in question, so it makes more sense to look at his numbers from the 2nd half of the season. If he had played a career of 8-game seasons, that 11-20 stat would be very impressive.

Also, you can't on the one hand claim that he had a disproportionately low number of carries for me to use as a sample, then on the other hand point to his perfomance in a playoff game as if he had never rested.

AFTER HIS 8TH GAME OF THE SEASON
Regular season or post-season, in his career, Julius has never had so much as an 80-yard game. UNLESS he had at least two consecutive games of 12 carries or less prior.

New Orleans and at Seattle last year, at Carolina the year before, he had 12 carries or less in the two games leading up to each one of those games.

2004
only played in 8 games

2005
12/11 KC 12 for 41
12/18 @WAS 12 for 79
12/24 @CAR 34 for 194

2006
11/23 TB 11 for 40
12/03 @NYG 11 for 24
12/10 NO 10 for 116

12/25 PHI 10 for 38
12/31 DET 10 for 37
01/06 @SEA 22 for 112

The most he's ever rushed for after game 8 without two straight weeks of 12 carries or less is 79 yards. That speaks to his durability.

It could be argued that any decrease in effectiveness late last season might have been from not getting enough carries in those games.

Problem is, with all that you've said about carries that artificially lower his ypc, his crucial 3rd-down conversions, his meaningless 4th qtr runs when we were winning, his performance in Seattle (after a month of limited action), you haven't said anything that indicates he would have been equally effective with more carries.