More criticism of Julius Jones

[percyhoward]

I may be wrong, but I don't think Parcells had a history of having to lighten his starting RB's load late in the season like he had to do with Julius last year. There was a 15-20% swing in the number of carries divided between Jones and Barber.

If Parcells hadn't done this, JJ's YPC wouldn't even have been as high as it was.

 

[AdamJT13]

But, that does not mean that you can't perform well within that system.

And contrary to what some people say, Julius actually performed fairly well -- certainly better than a lot of people seem to think.

Curtis Martin's ypc hovered around 4 with parcells

Martin didn't "hover around" 4, he topped out at 4. He hovered around 3.8, and he had two seasons at 3.6 and 3.5. Would you be satisifed if Julius averaged 3.5 YPC? I think certainly not.

, but he also scored 14 TDs a year

He rushed for 14 TDs twice, eight in another year and five in the other year. And when he rushed for 14, the vast majority came at the goal line -- 18 of them from 3 yards or less, seven more from 4 to 10 yards and only three from 11 to 20 yards. None of them came from 21 yards or more. As is mostly the case with rushing touchdowns, his were a product of opportunity more than effectiveness.

, broke some long runs (11 20+ runs in one year)

And only 14 total in his other three seasons under Parcells. Martin's percentage of long runs under Parcells (1.76) was actually lower than Julius' percentage (1.80).

You never heard any other Parcells back complaining about their eventual robotization. They just went out, and got things done.

At 3.80 yards a pop.

Give Martin credit for being a durable workhorse who could carry the ball 360 times in a season. But don't pretend that he was far more effective under Parcells on a per-carry basis than Julius has been, because he wasn't.

 

[Stash]

:anvil:

Factual beatdown!

Nice work Adam!

:toast:

 

[AdamJT13]

I may be wrong, but I don't think Parcells had a history of having to lighten his starting RB's load late in the season like he had to do with Julius last year. There was a 15-20% swing in the number of carries divided between Jones and Barber.

If Parcells hadn't done this, JJ's YPC wouldn't even have been as high as it was.

There's no way to know whether Julius' YPC would have been higher or lower if he was used more late in the season.

Over the last six games, Julius had 11, 11, 10, 13, 10 and 10 carries. His YPC was 4.17 in those games. For the season, his YPC on his 11th through 20th carries of games was 4.44 -- compared to 3.97 on his first through 10th carries. And his highest YPC of all (4.89) came on his 11th through 15th carries, of which he got only five total during those six games.

So, if he had gotten about five more carries per game over the final six weeks, it's quite possible -- or even likely -- that his YPC would have been even higher than it was. There's no way to say for sure, but there's absolutely no evidence to suggest that it would have been lower.

 

[percyhoward]

There's no way to know whether Julius' YPC would have been higher or lower if he was used more late in the season.

Over the last six games, Julius had 11, 11, 10, 13, 10 and 10 carries. His YPC was 4.17 in those games. For the season, his YPC on his 11th through 20th carries of games was 4.44 -- compared to 3.97 on his first through 10th carries. And his highest YPC of all (4.89) came on his 11th through 15th carries, of which he got only five total during those six games.

So, if he had gotten about five more carries per game over the final six weeks, it's quite possible -- or even likely -- that his YPC would have been even higher than it was. There's no way to say for sure, but there's absolutely no evidence to suggest that it would have been lower.

You're talking about his YPC for the SEASON for carries 11-20. That includes the early games, when he was one of the league's leading rushers. There's no evidence to suggest that would have continued that pace late in the season, and by resting him more, Parcells indicated he thought the same thing.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

You're talking about his YPC for the SEASON for carries 11-20. That includes the early games, when he was one of the league's leading rushers. There's no evidence to suggest that would have continued that pace late in the season, and by resting him more, Parcells indicated he thought the same thing.

Or,, it could have been that we were down and had to quit running the ball because our D couldn't stop anyone. Esp in DEC. No one has claimed that JJ was a work horse.. hes not. but he is a good back and gets critizied alot around here for not being productive.. but he has a 4.0 ypc average.. that is pretty good production.

 

[percyhoward]

Or,, it could have been that we were down and had to quit running the ball because our D couldn't stop anyone.

His share of the carries went down, though. Parcells told him to make sure he had something left in the tank, which told me we were saving him for the playoffs, and it worked. He had a great game in Seattle.

He's best when he carries it 15 times per game. After that, his ypc goes down to 3.5, compared to somebody like Chester Taylor, whose season ypc was lower than JJ's, but whose ypc went up to 4.3 for carries 16+

He and mb3 compliment each other.

 

[AdamJT13]

You're talking about his YPC for the SEASON for carries 11-20. That includes the early games, when he was one of the league's leading rushers. There's no evidence to suggest that would have continued that pace late in the season, and by resting him more, Parcells indicated he thought the same thing.

In his last regular season game with more than 13 carries (22 against Indianapolis), Julius averaged 4.60 YPC on his 11th through 20th carries.

In the playoffs, he averaged 4.20 on his 11th through 20th carries, then busted a 35-yarder on his 21st carry.

Do you really think Parcells suddenly thought Julius wouldn't be effective after 10 carries, then changed his mind in the playoffs? Of course not.

As has been explained before, there were two main reasons why Julius didn't get as many carries late in the season -- we were behind more, so we ran the ball less and used more of our passing offense (which put Barber in the game), and Parcells wanted to make sure Julius was fresh and healthy for the playoffs (which he was). It had nothing to do with Parcells suddenly thinking Julius wouldn't be effective with more than 10 carries.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

His share of the carries went down, though. Parcells told him to make sure he had something left in the tank, which told me we were saving him for the playoffs, and it worked. He had a great game in Seattle.

He's best when he carries it 15 times per game. After that, his ypc goes down to 3.5, compared to somebody like Chester Taylor, whose season ypc was lower than JJ's, but whose ypc went up to 4.3 for carries 16+

He and mb3 compliment each other.

Totally agree with that statment. I am in no way trying to knock on Barber,, I really like this kid,, I love the way he runs. I just think that JJ gets knocked alot on this board for no good reason, other than people have decided they don't like him for whatever reasons. He has been an effective back, as effective as any back BP has coached in 20 years. Yes, he makes mistakes, yes he will miss a cutback lane.. but so does every back. And when you factor in the system, which is not one designed to highlight the RB, JJ has done as well.. as any back would have done!

 

[AdamJT13]

compared to somebody like Chester Taylor, whose season ypc was lower than JJ's, but whose ypc went up to 4.3 for carries 16+

Taylor's not the example you want to use. His YPC on carries 16-plus was 3.37 aside from one 95-yard run.

 

[percyhoward]

In his last regular season game with more than 13 carries (22 against Indianapolis), Julius averaged 4.60 YPC on his 11th through 20th carries.

Interesting how you left off his last two carries. He had 22 in the game. He averaged 2.9 on his last 9 carries.

Do you really think Parcells suddenly thought Julius wouldn't be effective after 10 carries, then changed his mind in the playoffs? Of course not.

Did I say that?

As has been explained before, there were two main reasons why Julius didn't get as many carries late in the season -- we were behind more, so we ran the ball less and used more of our passing offense (which put Barber in the game), and Parcells wanted to make sure Julius was fresh and healthy for the playoffs (which he was). It had nothing to do with Parcells suddenly thinking Julius wouldn't be effective with more than 10 carries.

First, I said he was resting JJ for the playoffs.

Second, I have no idea what your point was in that last paragraph.

Third, here are the last four games of the season in which JJ was allowed to carry the ball more than 13 times. I'm not picking and choosing 11 thru 15, or 11 thru 20 or whatever. These numbers are for his 14th carry of the game and after...

at Car: 11 for 27
at Was: 7 for 21
at AZ: 2 for -1
IND: 9 for 26

2.5 ypc

JJ was averaging 2.5 ypc past his 13th carry in the last four games he was allowed to carry it that many times. JJ never got a chance to carry the ball 14 times in a game after that, until Seattle.

When he was RESTED.

 

[superpunk]

Here, Mr. Barker.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/julius_jones

Negatives: Not really a self-motivated player and does not take well to hard coaching … Is just a little too lazy digesting the playbook … Has adequate power, but not enough to take on defenders one-on-one … Not mentally tough, letting minor injuries linger … Just used on screens, as he is a marginal route runner who looks late for the ball … Needs to protect the ball better and show better anticipation for contact … Will sometimes run up the back of the offensive lineman, but has enough pick-and-slide agility to gain yards inside … Prone to go down from the initial tackle, especially when defenders attack his feet … Has good foot quickness and change-of-direction agility, but is not sudden off cuts, gathering himself before accelerating.

Also, I feel inclined to mention that the whole "how team's performed with and without Parcells" is like half a red herring, unless the personnel remained the same. For instance, the teams improved - and not dramatically, in most cases. Martin also improved, but also - not dramatically. In his first season without Parcells on the Jets his ypc actually got worse, before something happened that got him two 4.5 + years in 5 years.

Julius may improve next year. We've improved our RG situation tremendously. Our linemen are built for mauling, so moving from a zone blocking scheme is going to help, where they were good already. I don't think it should be that hard to accept that Julius is an inconsistent back, and was not coached to be ineffective - that's just who he is. He's got some great talent, and he shows it off from time to time. If ou subscribe to the robot theory, you've got to believe a couple things. You have to believe that Parcells was displeased with his effective start last year, and demanded he conform to Parcells' asinine demands. You've got to assume that Barber didn't receive the same coaching. You've got to assume that Parcells told him to forget all that for the playoffs.

And you've also got to assume that Julius doesn't have a brain - and can suppress his football instincts by means f roboticized rhetoric.

I just don't buy it. I buy that we've got an inconsistent back that left a lot of yardage on the field last year, and has alot of room for improvement.

 

[AdamJT13]

Interesting how you left off his last two carries.

Because I was talking about carries 11-20, and so were you. I'm not advocating running him more than 20 times every game, I'm just saying he's most effective from carries 11-15 and still effective after that, and he got only five of those carries TOTAL in the final six games of the regular season. You claimed that if Julius had more than 10, 11 or 13 carries in those games, his YPC would have gone down -- even though the evidence suggests that those next few carries would have been his best.

He had 22 in the game. He averaged 2.9 on his last 9 carries.

Interesting how you eliminated three carries for 24 yards but included his carries past No. 20 (which I wasn't talking about). He averaged 4.60 YPC on carries 11-20 and 4.17 on all of his carries past No. 10 (11-22).

Did I say that?

Yes, you did. Specifically -- "There's no evidence to suggest that would have continued that pace late in the season, and by resting him more, Parcells indicated he thought the same thing."

You obviously were stating that Parcells thought he wouldn't be as effective with more than 10, 11 or 13 carries.

Second, I have no idea what your point was in that last paragraph.

I was refuting your statement from above -- that Parcells somehow though Julius wouldn't be effective after 10 carries anymore.

Third, here are the last four games of the season in which JJ was allowed to carry the ball more than 13 times. I'm not picking and choosing 11 thru 15, or 11 thru 20 or whatever.

Then you're not even discussing my point.

at Car: 11 for 27

Wrong. Julius had 24 carries for 92 yards against Carolina. He had 12 for 51 in the first half, then no gain on his 13th carry. So on his 14th through 24th carries, he rushed 11 times for 41 yards. And on carries 14-20, he averaged 4.57 YPC.

at Was: 7 for 21

Never mind that four of those seven runs (57 percent) are considered "successful runs" in PSR, that two of them converted on third-and-1, that two of them came inside the 10-yard line and set up a touchdown, that all of them gained at least 2 yards or picked up a first down AND that he averaged 4.67 yards on carries 11-13 in that game. He was quite effective after 10 carries in that game, and still quite effective after 13 despite his YPC.

at AZ: 2 for -1

Two carries? Boy, that's a mound of evidence there. Never mind that we were up 27-10 in the fourth quarter by then, or that Barber averaged a whopping 1.5 YPC on his last four carries of the same drive.

IND: 9 for 26

Like I said earlier, his 11th through 13th carries averaged 8.0 yards, and he averaged 4.17 on Nos. 11 through 22. Also, seven of those nine carries for 26 yards you mention either came in the red zone (five for 6 yards) or put us in the red zone (two for 14) on touchdown drives -- with a 15-yard screen pass by Jones also coming in the red zone on those drives to set up a 1-yard TD run by Barber. Again, he was quite effective after his first 10 carries and still effective -- despite his YPC -- after his 14th carry.

 

[big dog cowboy]

:fact:

 

[percyhoward]

Because I was talking about carries 11-20, and so were you. I'm not advocating running him more than 20 times every game, I'm just saying he's most effective from carries 11-15 and still effective after that, and he got only five of those carries TOTAL in the final six games of the regular season. You claimed that if Julius had more than 10, 11 or 13 carries in those games, his YPC would have gone down -- even though the evidence suggests that those next few carries would have been his best.

Actually, what you said was that Julius' ypc would likely have been higher if Parcells hadn't reduced his share of the carries. This would have meant JJ having more than 10, 11, or 13 carries in the final six games. Against Tampa Bay, he would have have 19 carries. Against Atlanta, he would have had 17 carries.

In games 1-10, Juilus had about 20 carries per game to Barber's 8, or a little more than 70% of the share. Here are JJ's actual number of carries over the final six games, and the projected number of carries he would have had if Parcells hadn't lightened his load by 15-20% (IOW, if JJ had continued with his normal workload from games 1-10):

actual carries/projected carries
vs. TB: 11/19
at NYG: 11/16
vs. NO: 10/8
at Atl: 13/17
vs. Phi: 10/11
vs. Det: 10/12

So on average, we're talking about the difference between 11 carries and 14 carries. We could just look at what he was doing on carries 12, 13, and 14 in the last half of the season, and base a projection on that.

at AZ: 3 for (-2)
vs. IND: 3 for 20 (against league's 32nd-ranked run D)
at Atl: 2 for 0

That averages out to 8 for 18, or 2.25 per carry. We can go back further, if you like. In Washington, he had 8 yards on carries 12-14 (2.7 ypc). Wanna go back even more? The week before, in Carolina, JJ had 6 yards on carries 12-14 (2.0 ypc).

You say that "evidence suggests" the extra carries JJ would've gotten if his share of carries hadn't been reduced "would've been his best." What evidence are you looking at? Because I look at the last five games where he had 12+ carries, and I come up with 32 yards on 14 of those extra carries (2.3 ypc).

You're looking at the first six games of the season, when he must have averaged someting like 6 or 7 yards on those carries. When he was among the league's leading rushers. Before he wore down.

I can understand why you weren't talking about it too. The 3 carries I "eliminated" were carries 11-13. If the issue is stamina, what does it prove that JJ gained 24 yards on carries 11-13? A RB who can't give you 13 good carries shouldn't even be starting. JJ is good for that, and a little more. But the Curtis Martin comparison is a stretch.

Also your breakdown of "carries 11-20" isn't so much a breakdown as it is a "split in two." Break it down more. He may have averaged 4.5 on carries 11-20, but how much of that was early in the season, and how much of that was carries 11-13, as opposed to carries 18-20?

Yes, you did. Specifically -- "There's no evidence to suggest that would have continued that pace late in the season, and by resting him more, Parcells indicated he thought the same thing."
You obviously were stating that Parcells thought he wouldn't be as effective with more than 10, 11 or 13 carries.

I obviously was saying that, but you asked me if I really thought Parcells changed his mind for the playoffs. Did I say that Parcells changed his mind for the playoffs? No, in fact, just the opposite. I said Parcells rested him for the playoffs.

Then you're not even discussing my point.

Maybe I agree with your point, but it's not much of a point--that JJ's ypc for the season for carries 11-20 was impressive. I just don't think it's that impressive when you break it down a little more, because he's not that effective after 15 carries.

Here's what you said that I did not at all agree with:
"There's no way to know whether Julius' YPC would have been higher or lower if he was used more late in the season."

Of course, there's no way to know for sure, but looking at what he was trending toward, it's hard to imagine that the ypc would not have gone down.

Then there's the familiar:
"We were behind more, so we ran the ball less and used more of our passing offense (which put Barber in the game)."

I'll explode that one later.

Wrong. Julius had 24 carries for 92 yards against Carolina. He had 12 for 51 in the first half, then no gain on his 13th carry. So on his 14th through 24th carries, he rushed 11 times for 41 yards. And on carries 14-20, he averaged 4.57 YPC.

You're right. I shorted him 14 yards, because I missed the one-play drive that was a 14-yard JJ touchdown. That was a nice play. With that correction, Julius averaged NOT 2.5 ypc past his 13th carry in those games, but 3.0 ypc.

Of course, this would be more pertinent if Carolina wasn't only the 7th game of the season. After that, guess what he averaged after his 13th carry the rest of the year? (drumroll) 2.6 ypc.

Never mind that four of those seven runs (57 percent) are considered "successful runs" in PSR, that two of them converted on third-and-1, that two of them came inside the 10-yard line and set up a touchdown, that all of them gained at least 2 yards or picked up a first down AND that he averaged 4.67 yards on carries 11-13 in that game. He was quite effective after 10 carries in that game, and still quite effective after 13 despite his YPC.

To be fair, we should also mention that JJ has probably has his share of 5-yard gains on 2nd-and-20 that help his average. But that is a good point about the "successful runs." I learned something there.

Still, why the obsession with carries 11-13? Am I supposed to think he's out of gas by the time he gets that many carries?

Two carries? Boy, that's a mound of evidence there. Never mind that we were up 27-10 in the fourth quarter by then, or that Barber averaged a whopping 1.5 YPC on his last four carries of the same drive.

So those two carries are meaningless, but his two conversions on 3rd-and-1 in Washington were worth bringing up.

Like I said earlier, his 11th through 13th carries averaged 8.0 yards, and he averaged 4.17 on Nos. 11 through 22. Also, seven of those nine carries for 26 yards you mention either came in the red zone (five for 6 yards) or put us in the red zone (two for 14) on touchdown drives -- with a 15-yard screen pass by Jones also coming in the red zone on those drives to set up a 1-yard TD run by Barber. Again, he was quite effective after his first 10 carries and still effective -- despite his YPC -- after his 14th carry.

I really wanted him to score on that screen pass, and you make another good point in mentioning it. But 5 carries for 6 yards in the red zone against the league's worst run D won't get it done. Not without help anyway.

To pick up on a point...
"We were behind more, so we ran the ball less and used more of our passing offense (which put Barber in the game)."

Maybe Barber was in the game, but when we did run in those situations, Julius was in for every bit as much time as Barber was. When you look at the late season games in which we were behind, and in passing situations (behind in last 5 min., or behind by more than one TD in the 2nd half), Julius had 7 carries to Barber's 6.

You admit that Parcells lightened JJ's load because he wanted to keep him fresh for the playoffs. The mere fact that Parcells did that is telling when it comes to speculation about how JJ would have performed if that load had not been lightened. The numbers (AFTER 13 carries) support that.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

stat wars!

 

[AdamJT13]

I don't have time at the moment to refute your entire post, but I will say this ..

Actually, what you said was that Julius' ypc would likely have been higher if Parcells hadn't reduced his share of the carries. This would have meant JJ having more than 10, 11, or 13 carries in the final six games. Against Tampa Bay, he would have have 19 carries. Against Atlanta, he would have had 17 carries.

You're not following along very well. HERE is what I actually said -- "So, if he had gotten about five more carries per game over the final six weeks, it's quite possible -- or even likely -- that his YPC would have been even higher than it was."

About five more carries per game -- in other words, about 16, 16, 15, 18, 15 and 15 carries in each of the final six games. Not 20 or more, just 15 to 18 -- or maybe one or two more or less in certain games, but averaging out to five more per game.

 

[percyhoward]

You're not following along very well. HERE is what I actually said -- "So, if he had gotten about five more carries per game over the final six weeks, it's quite possible -- or even likely -- that his YPC would have been even higher than it was."

About five more carries per game -- in other words, about 16, 16, 15, 18, 15 and 15 carries in each of the final six games. Not 20 or more, just 15 to 18 -- or maybe one or two more or less in certain games, but averaging out to five more per game.

I know, and the last five times he exceeded 11 carries, his ypc on those extra carries was a whopping 2.3 I actually was just giving him 3 more carries--with 5 more it might be even worse.

So the question is, how is it "likely" that his ypc would have gone UP with these five more carries you're talking about?

You don't have to refute anything, just answer that question.

You compared JJ's ypc to Curtis Martin's. I contend that that's apples and oranges, because JJ would basically fall into tiny pieces if he ever got as many carries as Martin had.

 

[lspain1]

I want to add my two cents here. Our entire RB corps puts no fear in any of our opponents. We need to get a lot better here and I'm not sure we have the horses to do it. We'll see.

 

[AdamJT13]

I know, and the last five times he exceeded 11 carries, his ypc on those extra carries was a whopping 2.3

You're obviously not including the playoff game, when he averaged 7.4 YPC on his 11 carries after his 11th carry. And if you're just counting the last five regular season games, it was 2.9 YPC, not 2.3. But you're talking about only 39 carries -- a disproportionate number of which were either red zone carries, short-yardage carries (including his only two third-and-1 carries all season, both of which he converted despite averaging "only" 2.5 YPC on them) or meaningless fourth-quarter carries when we were running out the clock. All of those situations tend to produce lower YPCs. Oh, and we won four out of those five games and lost the other only on a fluke.

So the question is, how is it "likely" that his ypc would have gone UP with these five more carries you're talking about?

Because throughout his career, he is effective on carries 11-20. A small sample of games isn't enough to disprove that fact.

You compared JJ's ypc to Curtis Martin's. I contend that that's apples and oranges, because JJ would basically fall into tiny pieces if he ever got as many carries as Martin had.

I already said Martin should get credit for being a workhorse. But his YPC didn't suffer because of it -- it was lower to begin with. In his first six games of each season under Parcells, his YPC was 3.77. That's certainly not because he was getting worn down.

Julius hasn't shown any signs of being worn down during his career. He might be prone to injuries when used a lot -- that's still to be seen -- but it could be argued that any decrease in effectiveness late last season might have been from not getting enough carries in those games moreso than being worn down at all.