My Draft objectives for this year, based on the roster

[Montanalo]

Note: I apologize for the length.

This draft is a little bit of a conundrum for me.

The only defensive guys that I really see that are worth the 10th pick are Surtain and Farley. I really want to find a DT in the first but unless Nixon or Barmore rise a good bit, 10 will be too high for them. However, that is the position I’d most like to have a dominant rookie at.

Parsons, I’d be ok with, and physically, he’s a phenomenal talent, but there are a few concerns there for me:

1) I’m not crazy about using a top 10 pick on an off-ball 43 LB. You can find good LB’s in the first 3 rounds pretty easily IMO. Jimmy Johnson almost always drafted his in the second or third round. He’d just find a guy who liked to hit and could run like crazy who also had a good head on their shoulders. Dixon Edwards. Godfrey Myles. Vinson Smith. Darren Smith. Those guys were all fairly smart, fast, and a little bit undersized. They all had great change of direction. Just what I like to see in a 43 LB. The only LB Jimmy used a first round pick on was Robert Jones at MLB... and that was a very late first rounder.

2) I’m concerned about his possible immaturity issues. I have no idea if he has them and how big those issues actually are. Speaking for myself, loving the game of football and feeling the impact of the duty you have to your team and your team mates, is very, very important. Particularly in a top 10 pick. If there are any concerns about how seriously he takes football or how much he loves the game, I’d be out on him, no matter how talented he is. Now, if the concerns are just that he got carried away in a college hazing incident and his team mates loved playing with him, then I wouldn’t worry too much about that and I’d think hard about taking him at 10.

3) I don’t think the team is ready to give up on either Smith or LVE. I honestly doubt that Dallas will use a top 10 pick at that position because primarily just two LB’s play on most downs and in the team’s eyes... they have that covered with Smith/LVE. However, if Quinn might have designs on using Parsons some at LB and some at LEO getting after the passer, then I’d be more than down with that. Parsons is incredibly athletic and can do so much on defense to help, including being a pretty accomplished pass rusher. If they’re going to be creative with him and put him in position to make plays, then not only would I pick him at 10... but I’d be very excited about us picking him.

So, if they pick Parsons, I’d have to assume they vetted his immaturity issues and that they have a plan for him to impact the game.

Other than those 3 defenders, at this point I don’t really see anyone else on that side of the ball that is a target for 10. Again, I hope Nixon tests through the roof and moves up to that area.

So, if it isn’t one of those 3 (or 4) guys then it is either a trade-back or take an offensive guy. That could be Sewell (doubtful he falls), Slater (I’m ok with it), or Pitts (if he even makes it there I’d be very ok with it).

So while I agree that Dallas needs defense in a bad way, if they don’t want an early corner (or if they’re both gone) and they don’t like Parsons, then they almost will be forced to either reach way too much or go offense.

Kind of a weird draft for Dallas with the way it is falling. They will get a player that will be a good add to the team no matter what but it definitely could be on the offensive side of the ball.

For me, I’d be happy with any of the 3 defenders. I love both corners, though I lean towards Surtain. If the team takes Parsons, we can assume he has no issues and that the team has a plan... which would probably excite me more than anything else because he can be such an explosive difference maker. If they go with Slater or Darrisaw (yes I like him), then I’m ok with that too because it would upgrade the line both now and in the future. I think it would be a smart pick and I won’t freak about it not being defense.

And, if they took Pitts... well I’ll probably be giddy because that dude would be here for the next decade and with his physical traits along with just his natural instincts for playing football, he has a chance to be a game changer for a long, long time. Just my opinion, but I think that guy has a chance to be the best in the league very quickly.

I think a FS, corner or DT can be had that will help a lot in both the second and third rounds. So 3 players for Dallas in addition to their first pick.

DT McNeil, Tufele, or Shelvin.
FS Moehrig, Hufanga or Grant.
CB Newsome, Adebo, Stokes, Campbell or Melifonwu.
LB McGrone, Cox, or Browning.

Those guys can be had in the second to third round and can help on defense in year one. Maybe not start right away but Dallas can get defensive help that matters with their second and two thirds. No matter what they do with the 10th pick. That’s why I just want them to take the best talent at 10, no matter who that is. They’re going to get plenty of defensive help, even without figuring in free agency.

Plus, having guys buying in to the defensive scheme is going to make the biggest difference of anything that Dallas can do. Quinn replacing Nolan is going to change everything on that side of the ball.


That’s a lot to read, I know, but it is currently just how I view this draft pre Senior Bowl.

Very good post... I have similar feelings about round 1 and, in particular, have concerns with Parsons.

For the last couple of years, I have used a Monte Carlo simulator to predict the likelihood of certain players being available to Dallas for the first few rounds (as opposed to predicting who the Cowboys will select). The simulation uses a range of player rankings (big boards) coupled with a range of "needs" for each team to analyze draft patterns. It is still an unfinished product but, here are a few quite observations:

• At this point, the results are greatly influenced by the QB selections. With a greater than 50% (>P50) that 4 QBs will be selected in the the first 10 picks, the likelihood that either Surtain or Farley is available at 10 is >P75.
• There is a >P75 that DTs Barmore and Nixon will be selected in the first round
• Trading down is a panacea for most draft aficionados. From a purely "BPA meets highest priority need", trading down to the middle third of the first round opens the most options for Dallas to address CB, DT and safety.

Not earth-shattering -- it is snowing like crazy and in the mid-teens outside, so I needed something to do.

 

[Cowboyny]

I think most of us see it this way. However I really like this Jeremiah Owusu O kid.

I like JOK, but don't know how to use him. He was more of a rover safety in college and might be too small for LB, especially with our undersized DL in front of him.

 

[Verdict]

Note: I apologize for the length.

This draft is a little bit of a conundrum for me.

The only defensive guys that I really see that are worth the 10th pick are Surtain and Farley. I really want to find a DT in the first but unless Nixon or Barmore rise a good bit, 10 will be too high for them. However, that is the position I’d most like to have a dominant rookie at.

Parsons, I’d be ok with, and physically, he’s a phenomenal talent, but there are a few concerns there for me:

1) I’m not crazy about using a top 10 pick on an off-ball 43 LB. You can find good LB’s in the first 3 rounds pretty easily IMO. Jimmy Johnson almost always drafted his in the second or third round. He’d just find a guy who liked to hit and could run like crazy who also had a good head on their shoulders. Dixon Edwards. Godfrey Myles. Vinson Smith. Darren Smith. Those guys were all fairly smart, fast, and a little bit undersized. They all had great change of direction. Just what I like to see in a 43 LB. The only LB Jimmy used a first round pick on was Robert Jones at MLB... and that was a very late first rounder.

2) I’m concerned about his possible immaturity issues. I have no idea if he has them and how big those issues actually are. Speaking for myself, loving the game of football and feeling the impact of the duty you have to your team and your team mates, is very, very important. Particularly in a top 10 pick. If there are any concerns about how seriously he takes football or how much he loves the game, I’d be out on him, no matter how talented he is. Now, if the concerns are just that he got carried away in a college hazing incident and his team mates loved playing with him, then I wouldn’t worry too much about that and I’d think hard about taking him at 10.

3) I don’t think the team is ready to give up on either Smith or LVE. I honestly doubt that Dallas will use a top 10 pick at that position because primarily just two LB’s play on most downs and in the team’s eyes... they have that covered with Smith/LVE. However, if Quinn might have designs on using Parsons some at LB and some at LEO getting after the passer, then I’d be more than down with that. Parsons is incredibly athletic and can do so much on defense to help, including being a pretty accomplished pass rusher. If they’re going to be creative with him and put him in position to make plays, then not only would I pick him at 10... but I’d be very excited about us picking him.

So, if they pick Parsons, I’d have to assume they vetted his immaturity issues and that they have a plan for him to impact the game.

Other than those 3 defenders, at this point I don’t really see anyone else on that side of the ball that is a target for 10. Again, I hope Nixon tests through the roof and moves up to that area.

So, if it isn’t one of those 3 (or 4) guys then it is either a trade-back or take an offensive guy. That could be Sewell (doubtful he falls), Slater (I’m ok with it), or Pitts (if he even makes it there I’d be very ok with it).

So while I agree that Dallas needs defense in a bad way, if they don’t want an early corner (or if they’re both gone) and they don’t like Parsons, then they almost will be forced to either reach way too much or go offense.

Kind of a weird draft for Dallas with the way it is falling. They will get a player that will be a good add to the team no matter what but it definitely could be on the offensive side of the ball.

For me, I’d be happy with any of the 3 defenders. I love both corners, though I lean towards Surtain. If the team takes Parsons, we can assume he has no issues and that the team has a plan... which would probably excite me more than anything else because he can be such an explosive difference maker. If they go with Slater or Darrisaw (yes I like him), then I’m ok with that too because it would upgrade the line both now and in the future. I think it would be a smart pick and I won’t freak about it not being defense.

And, if they took Pitts... well I’ll probably be giddy because that dude would be here for the next decade and with his physical traits along with just his natural instincts for playing football, he has a chance to be a game changer for a long, long time. Just my opinion, but I think that guy has a chance to be the best in the league very quickly.

I think a FS, corner or DT can be had that will help a lot in both the second and third rounds. So 3 players for Dallas in addition to their first pick.

DT McNeil, Tufele, or Shelvin.
FS Moehrig, Hufanga or Grant.
CB Newsome, Adebo, Stokes, Campbell or Melifonwu.
LB McGrone, Cox, or Browning.

Those guys can be had in the second to third round and can help on defense in year one. Maybe not start right away but Dallas can get defensive help that matters with their second and two thirds. No matter what they do with the 10th pick. That’s why I just want them to take the best talent at 10, no matter who that is. They’re going to get plenty of defensive help, even without figuring in free agency.

Plus, having guys buying in to the defensive scheme is going to make the biggest difference of anything that Dallas can do. Quinn replacing Nolan is going to change everything on that side of the ball.


That’s a lot to read, I know, but it is currently just how I view this draft pre Senior Bowl.

Very good post. Long posts are awesome if they are well thought out, coherent and the poster has value. You hit on all three, my friend.

 

[Verdict]

That very well could happen. I wonder if Dallas would pull the trigger on him though. I have difficulty seeing Dallas taking him at 10 although with Quinn here he might convince them that Moehrig is worth it.

Perhaps with a trade back in the first, they’d feel better taking a safety. They probably view spending 10th overall on a safety way differently than taking him at 18th overall.

But yeah, you’re right that Moehrig keeps climbing and even at this early point may already be out of reach of Dallas’ second round pick.

I am seeing a wide range of draft slots projected on this guy. Not sure what to make of it.

 

[AsthmaField]

I am seeing a wide range of draft slots projected on this guy. Not sure what to make of it.

I’m guessing late first or early second for Moehrig. Essentially, too late for Dallas’ first round pick and too early for their second.

 

[gimmesix]

I’d be fine with a trade back, but that situation rarely manifests itself in reality. It does happen sometimes but that is fairly rare. Like you, I think some of the same players would be in play at pick 15.

As for Parsons, I’m torn on him and I have some of the same concerns as you. I naturally lean more towards a guy like Bolton who has proven LB instincts and a tangible grit to his game. However, he doesn’t have the size or athleticism that Parsons does.

Ultimately, I just end up shying away from picking a LB in the first round. I keep thinking that Surtain in the first, McNeil in the second and McGrone in the third will serve the Cowboys much better than Parsons at 10, Newsome in the second and Shelvin in the third.

I think if one of the quarterbacks is there at 10, we might be able to strike a deal.