My Opinion on What's Going On With Dak's Contract

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

You’re an Eagles fan.

How much would you love to see the news of Dak resigning to the Cowboys?

 

[kskboys]

I think he wants out of this olio.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Agree. The AAV is not what players are focusing on and trying to compare their next contract to, it's the AAV by % of the cap. Adjusted for 2024 if you give Dak the same percentage of cap as Lamar Jackson he should be at $59M. If you do the same as Burrow he should be at $60M. If you go off of next years projected cap numbers this would be closer to $65M.

Jared Goff is the 3rd highest in AAV, but 11th in AAV by % of the cap which is much more reflective of his play.

 

[McKDaddy]

I'm continually confused. Is it next man up? Or is it relative to talent?

If it's next man up, then we can't exclude anyone from topping the market.

If it's talent, Dak has no more claim to market setting salary than the other QB's you mentioned as not being viable candidates.

 

[McKDaddy]

I think he wants out of this olio.

That is my hope.

 

[kskboys]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

So, what you're saying is that, just like last time, Dak is overriden w/ extreme greed. What a sad young man.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I'm continually confused. Is it next man up? Or is it relative to talent?

It’s a bit of both. 2022 made this a little hazy because all 4 guys who signed were super young, top 5ish players. Jalen was second in MVP voting and nearly won the SB. Lamar was a league MVP about to win his second. Joe and Justin are perpetually the most prolific guys in the league. This made it wrongfully appear that whoever signs next just gets more and that’s just the way it works.

Goff is older than even Dak and hasn’t been viewed as even a top 10 guy until this year. Will that continue if the talent around him isn’t sustainable? Trevor is being paid almost entirely on projection, because if his career continues the way it has his contract would be a mistake. The opposite is true for last year’s 4. Philly would love 2022 Hurts every year, Baltimore would happily take 2 MVPs every 4 years from Lamar. Tua is closer to Goff. Love is closer to Trevor.

Dak is much more like the first group than the second. No, he’s not 25, but he does have something none of them had: historic leverage. No trade clause, no franchise tag clause, no real QB succession plan from the team. They need Dak, and Dak is about 6 months away from not needing them. He will get 60+ either from Dallas or whoever wins the bidding war in March

 

[DanTanna]

Do not sign Dak. Problem solved.

 

[Blitzen]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

60 is not enough different from 56 to cause this type of impasse. If Jerry and Stephen really want him for the next 4 seasons, and it’s apparent that he will not take less than a number just for just a few more $million-then the deal would have already been done. This has to do with more than just a few million dollars if it never comes to pass. It finally sounds like Jerry likes the idea of a “prove it” one year deal with Dak. It’s pretty strange that an Eagles fan seems kinda hopeful that Dallas and Dak eventually work the deal out…Wonder if the pro-Dak members will give you any likes/support?

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

60 is not enough different from 56 to cause this type of impasse. If Jerry and Stephen really want him for the next 4 seasons, and it’s apparent that he will not take less than a number just for just a few more $million-then the deal would have already been done. This has to do with more than just a few million dollars if it never comes to pass. It finally sounds like Jerry likes the idea of a “prove it” one year deal with Dak. It’s pretty strange that an Eagles fan seems kinda hopeful that Dallas and Dak eventually work the deal out…Wonder if the pro-Dak members will give you any likes/support?

This actually reminds me a LOT of what happened in the Saquon/Giants documentary on HBO Max. Saquon and the Giants were negotiating for 2 years, and things fell apart simply because Philly offered a little more in guarantees than the Giants cared to. Saquon had said he expected to stay a Giant the entire process, and I believe he was being genuine. And for all intents and purposes he probably should still be one. It really broke down over a couple of bucks.

Pride (from the player, the FO, and the agent) is a real thing, and it makes it much more nuanced when there’s another team at the other end of the road whispering sweet nothings into your ear. “Why are they treating you like this?”

 

[thunderpimp91]

I'm continually confused. Is it next man up? Or is it relative to talent?

If it's next man up, then we can't exclude anyone from topping the market.

If it's talent, Dak has no more claim to market setting salary than the other QB's you mentioned as not being viable candidates.

Depends on the metric you're going off of. If its strictly AAV then it will always be next man up as the salary cap is going up almost all of the time.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

I have no doubt this is all true but you have to understand who you speaking to. It's hard for most fans to understand HOW a player could not be happy making $56M PER YEAR.

 

[kskboys]

60 is not enough different from 56 to cause this type of impasse. If Jerry and Stephen really want him for the next 4 seasons, and it’s apparent that he will not take less than a number just for just a few more $million-then the deal would have already been done. This has to do with more than just a few million dollars if it never comes to pass. It finally sounds like Jerry likes the idea of a “prove it” one year deal with Dak. It’s pretty strange that an Eagles fan seems kinda hopeful that Dallas and Dak eventually work the deal out…Wonder if the pro-Dak members will give you any likes/support?

It is for Dak.

 

[McKDaddy]

It’s a bit of both. 2022 made this a little hazy because all 4 guys who signed were super young, top 5ish players. Jalen was second in MVP voting and nearly won the SB. Lamar was a league MVP about to win his second. Joe and Justin are perpetually the most prolific guys in the league. This made it wrongfully appear that whoever signs next just gets more and that’s just the way it works.

Goff is older than even Dak and hasn’t been viewed as even a top 10 guy until this year. Will that continue if the talent around him isn’t sustainable? Trevor is being paid almost entirely on projection, because if his career continues the way it has his contract would be a mistake. The opposite is true for last year’s 4. Philly would love 2022 Hurts every year, Baltimore would happily take 2 MVPs every 4 years from Lamar. Tua is closer to Goff. Love is closer to Trevor.

Dak is much more like the first group than the second. No, he’s not 25, but he does have something none of them had: historic leverage. No trade clause, no franchise tag clause, no real QB succession plan from the team. They need Dak, and Dak is about 6 months away from not needing them. He will get 60+ either from Dallas or whoever wins the bidding war in March

But Goff has accomplished more than Dak and even though he isn't a perfect QB by any means, public perception of him was painted when the Rams traded him. Most people never watched him play until the Lions started making noise.

I get the questions about Trevor ... but he's not been in a great situation. Tua is young & deadly accurate. Love, I really don't know but he certainly played well down the stretch. At least you are betting on upside with the young guys.

Dak is what he is & he is entering that age where it could all go downhill quickly. I don't even consider anything close to top of market if I'm a GM. If someone else will, you let them regret the decision.

 

[Ranching]

You’re an Eagles fan.

So, you guys are buddy. Telling Cowboy jokes and singing kumbaya by the play station....

 

[Hawkeye0202]

. He will get 60+ either from Dallas or whoever wins the bidding war in March

My guess is Jerry knows it and it scares him to death that Dak could go to another team and win it all.

 

[Blitzen]

This actually reminds me a LOT of what happened in the Saquon/Giants documentary on HBO Max. Saquon and the Giants were negotiating for 2 years, and things fell apart simply because Philly offered a little more in guarantees than the Giants cared to. Saquon had said he expected to stay a Giant the entire process, and I believe he was being genuine. And for all intents and purposes he probably should still be one. It really broke down over a couple of bucks.

And running backs are completely different than QB’s with regards to roster construction and aging at the position. If the numbers are close, then the team would at least match the offer if they really see a future with the player. Maybe NY does not see a very successful future this season or next with Barkley and knew he does not make a big enough difference to pay the contract (allow Philly to make the offer and then offer a little less, or offer a low amount and do not match when the next team offers a bit more). Both situations could be just that the team’s FO do not want to keep running it back with said player for yet more money.

 

[McKDaddy]

Depends on the metric you're going off of. If its strictly AAV then it will always be next man up as the salary cap is going up almost all of the time.

I get that the cap is rising but I will always say the max should be X% of the cap for the very best player at the position. Everyone else is X-Y where Y is how far below the best guy they are.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

My guess is Jerry knows it and it scares him to death that Dak could go to another team and win it all.

The most logical prediction is still that Dallas caves. The only team that’s ever let go of a pro bowl Caliber QB at Dak’s age or younger was Washington, and they made it known they weren’t going to sign him well before it happened. Dallas has been insisting the opposite