My Opinion on What's Going On With Dak's Contract

[Nav22]

You’re an Eagles fan.

How much would you love to see the news of Dak resigning to the Cowboys?

Notice how he didn't respond to you?

Maybe because Dak's 9-4 vs the Eagles.

Awwww, you tried, Angus. Catch another L.

 

[darthseinfeld]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

Was gonna add this, but I think it should be a separate response:

A big reason why I believe Dallas's back is truely against the wall and way Dak will eventually top the market here is that they may have to attract a top tier coach next year. No good coach will want to walk into a scenario where Dak walks. There aren't good options in 2025 for a restart at the QB position, and no decent coach is going to sign up to tank for 2026

 

[Diehardblues]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

It’s obvious to me what’s happening and I’ve argued since FA begun.

Jethro is playing public perception. After the horrid performance in the playoffs he knew it wasn’t going to be popular with fans by coming out and setting the market with Dak.

So he’s waiting hopefully long enough until all of these other QB’s have resigned which will better support coughing up for Dak if he’s truly intended on retaining him.

And closer we get to the beginning of the season being over a barrel with the choice of caving in or moving on most who’d side on resigning him will be more tolerant and sympathetic to having to pay him.

 

[Diehardblues]

It wouldn't surprise me if he has thoughts like that and that's a problem with the owner being the GM.

He makes emotional decisions rather than sound football decisions. Just look at him letting go of Amari Cooper for a ham sandwich.

He didn't draft him and he fell out of Jerry's good graces.....so he was gone

No doubt Jethro wearing both hats of owner and GM is a conflict of interest for Cowboys Football.

 

[Diehardblues]

Notice how he didn't respond to you?

Maybe because Dak's 9-4 vs the Eagles.

Awwww, you tried, Angus. Catch another L.

 

[Diehardblues]

Lol. Wanting market rate is "extreme greed?" To some, I guess.

Of course it’s not. It’s not up to players to manage the budget. That’s on the Mgmt.

Fans just get fussy cause if it’s impact in building the team.

Again, that’s not on the players.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Notice how he didn't respond to you?

Maybe because Dak's 9-4 vs the Eagles.

Awwww, you tried, Angus. Catch another L.

Your boy gone.

“Move on” - Dak

 

[Diehardblues]

It’s a bit of both. 2022 made this a little hazy because all 4 guys who signed were super young, top 5ish players. Jalen was second in MVP voting and nearly won the SB. Lamar was a league MVP about to win his second. Joe and Justin are perpetually the most prolific guys in the league. This made it wrongfully appear that whoever signs next just gets more and that’s just the way it works.

Goff is older than even Dak and hasn’t been viewed as even a top 10 guy until this year. Will that continue if the talent around him isn’t sustainable? Trevor is being paid almost entirely on projection, because if his career continues the way it has his contract would be a mistake. The opposite is true for last year’s 4. Philly would love 2022 Hurts every year, Baltimore would happily take 2 MVPs every 4 years from Lamar. Tua is closer to Goff. Love is closer to Trevor.

Dak is much more like the first group than the second. No, he’s not 25, but he does have something none of them had: historic leverage. No trade clause, no franchise tag clause, no real QB succession plan from the team. They need Dak, and Dak is about 6 months away from not needing them. He will get 60+ either from Dallas or whoever wins the bidding war in March

In the end these salaries per year are misleading cause it’s not the Cap hit every year. They front load with signing bonuses and big Cap hits on back end. And why teams usually want to renegotiate on final year.

For example Daks current contract of 160 mil never was 40 mil Cap hit per season. First year was 17,2nd 19 , 3rd 26 and final 59.

Id argue 17.19 and 26 Cap hits were very manageable to build around.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/dak-prescott-contract#:~:text=Dak Prescott signed a 4 year, $160,000,000 contract,guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $40,000,000.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I forgot to switch to my burner account before I said that.

 

[Creeper]

Dak's last deal was for $40 million per year, $160 million overall. He will collect the entire $160 million when this year is done. Giving Dak $60 million for 4 years this time would amount to $240 million. That's $400 million over 8 years. That's a lot of money no matter how you look at it. But $60 million is also 50% more than his last deal. I get that salaries are increasing all around the league, but what has Dak done to demand a 50% raise over his last deal? 4 years ago the Cowboys were getting to the playoffs and losing. 4 years later it's the same thing. I think Dak has gotten better overall, but 50% better? I don't see it. And honestly, I never thought he was worth his $40 million deal.

On the other hand, the salary CAP has increased from $182,5 million in 2021 to $255.4 million in 2024, the duration of Dak's contract. That is an increase of about 40%. The CAP increases are like inflation. It causes the prices of all players to increase over time. So if they give Dak 40% increase for "inflation" and then a performance increase of just 2.5% per year, you are up to about $60 million. Again, I never thought the $40 million was justified but unfortunately, that is the starting point now.

I suppose there is an argument to be made for both points of view. For me, I think $60 million is too much. Most consider Dak to be in the top 10 of NFL QBs, not the top 3. So why set the market for him?

 

[Diehardblues]

I have no doubt this is all true but you have to understand who you speaking to. It's hard for most fans to understand HOW a player could not be happy making $56M PER YEAR.

It’s not about that. It’s because they don’t have to.

Should an entertainer turn down 100 million on a tour and charge less for tickets cause 50 million would be enough?

It’s simple economics. Supply and demand.

 

[Diehardblues]

Jethro should be happy making 500 million a year with lower ticket prices . But why should he if the Market doesn’t force him to?

I’m not sure fans all understand how the Capitalist market is driven.

Or maybe they’re just on the short end of the stick cause of poor life choices they’ve made.

But if you are in the Top 10 of your class you can dictate and negotiate your value according to the Market which is driven by Supply and Demand.

It’s the same for Doctors, Engineers, Lawyers, Accountants, etc and Athletes.

 

[thunderpimp91]

In the end these salaries per year are misleading cause it’s not the Cap hit every year. They front load with signing bonuses and big Cap hits on back end. And why teams usually want to renegotiate on final year.

For example Daks current contract of 160 mil never was 40 mil Cap hit per season. First year was 17,2nd 19 , 3rd 26 and final 59.

Id argue 17.19 and 26 Cap hits were very manageable to build around.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/dak-prescott-contract#:~:text=Dak Prescott signed a 4 year, $160,000,000 contract,guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $40,000,000.

The issue is $17, $19, and $26M cap hits only add up to $62M out of $160 total. We are in the final year of Daks deal and only absorbed about 37% of hit total cap hit. It was a horrible deal made worse by the front offices mismanagement of the cap hits because they had to cover for other horrible contracts like Zeke & Gallup.

You're absolutely correct that those early hits give you a chance to build a team around, but at the same time when you backload a deal that much it makes it tough to do anything in free agency for guys to command multi year deals.

 

[Diehardblues]

The issue is $17, $19, and $26M cap hits only add up to $62M out of $160 total. We are in the final year of Daks deal and only absorbed about 37% of hit total cap hit. It was a horrible deal made worse by the front offices mismanagement of the cap hits because they had to cover for other horrible contracts like Zeke & Gallup.

You're absolutely correct that those early hits give you a chance to build a team around, but at the same time when you backload a deal that much it makes it tough to do anything in free agency for guys to command multi year deals.

Of course and why I added that teams usually want to renegotiate in final year if they intend on retaining the player.

As always there’s give and take. The fact we placed Dak on Tag first time and we were basically bent over a barrel on his 2nd contract provided for Dak to be in a more favorable position on contract opting out of Tag possibility and no trade clause.

But those aren’t his fault. We can lay blame at the feet of our ownership. Much like last time we were trying to appeal to public perception that Dak had done enough to deserve such a Market Contract and why we hesitated. And ultimately caved to Zeke.

Our leadership has placed us in this position and continue to. And it all comes down to our owner wearing both hats which is actually conflict of interest managing Cowboys Football.

 

[Diehardblues]

Dak's last deal was for $40 million per year, $160 million overall. He will collect the entire $160 million when this year is done. Giving Dak $60 million for 4 years this time would amount to $240 million. That's $400 million over 8 years. That's a lot of money no matter how you look at it. But $60 million is also 50% more than his last deal. I get that salaries are increasing all around the league, but what has Dak done to demand a 50% raise over his last deal? 4 years ago the Cowboys were getting to the playoffs and losing. 4 years later it's the same thing. I think Dak has gotten better overall, but 50% better? I don't see it. And honestly, I never thought he was worth his $40 million deal.

On the other hand, the salary CAP has increased from $182,5 million in 2021 to $255.4 million in 2024, the duration of Dak's contract. That is an increase of about 40%. The CAP increases are like inflation. It causes the prices of all players to increase over time. So if they give Dak 40% increase for "inflation" and then a performance increase of just 2.5% per year, you are up to about $60 million. Again, I never thought the $40 million was justified but unfortunately, that is the starting point now.

I suppose there is an argument to be made for both points of view. For me, I think $60 million is too much. Most consider Dak to be in the top 10 of NFL QBs, not the top 3. So why set the market for him?

In the end 55 or 60 isn’t going to make that much difference once you front load with huge signing bonus( last time was 66 million) and backloading Cap hits on final season ( this year 59.5 million).

5 million more per year won’t amount to more than a couple million per season on Cap hit if that. Which means it might cost us one bench player on the roster. Hardly preventing us building a better team.

 

[DoctorChicken]

Notice how he didn't respond to you?

Maybe because Dak's 9-4 vs the Eagles.

Awwww, you tried, Angus. Catch another L.

Even Eagles fans are tired of his shtick. He has to switch it up if he wants to get more engagement. Finding different ways to say "Dak sucks" 500 times a day isn't that compelling anymore.

 

[Diehardblues]

As reported in our local paper which isn’t allowed to link, Jethro was basically saying retaining all 3 stars ( Prescott, Lamb and Parsons) could account for almost 50% of the Cap.

Which even he realizes makes it more difficult to build a better team around.

Sounds like Parsons will definitely have to wait until next year which will of course cost us even more but there will be some other veterans we could consider releasing to make room.

Sounds like the priority is Prescott at this time. And once ( if we do) get his deal done they’ll begin to negotiate with Lamb which they don’t seem to feel as much urgency as Prescott.

 

[KJJ]

There is no doubt Dak will reset the QB market either with us or someone else.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

The issue is $17, $19, and $26M cap hits only add up to $62M out of $160 total. We are in the final year of Daks deal and only absorbed about 37% of hit total cap hit. It was a horrible deal made worse by the front offices mismanagement of the cap hits because they had to cover for other horrible contracts like Zeke & Gallup.

You're absolutely correct that those early hits give you a chance to build a team around, but at the same time when you backload a deal that much it makes it tough to do anything in free agency for guys to command multi year deals.

Don’t forget all the franchise tags too. I hate handing out Franchise tags, they’re salary cap killers

The backloading part makes this even more of a blunder, because you add money to the void years with the intent of ultimately extending the player so it doesn’t escalate. But now not re-signing Dak becomes that double whammy

 

[Qcard]

I think there is a major fundamental discord that most of the media and fans don’t even realize is happening:

Last year, Joe Burrow signed on to be the highest AAV athlete in the history of organized football for 55m$. This year, Trevor Lawrence matched that, and Jared Goff took slightly less than that at 53m$. Tua and Love are next up.

The problem is everyone is clamoring for Dak to take 56m$ and be the highest paid player ever, as that seems like the correct course for him. I believe Jerry is probably offering something like this and is continually backed up by the Dunning Krugers of the social platforms. But that is the wrong way for this to play out, and I believe the core reason Dak hasn’t signed yet.

Trevor Lawrence is not a viable player/situation to command the highest paid QB contract. Jared Goff isn’t a viable player to get close to commanding the highest QB contract. Neither is Tua nor Love. Dak is in a position to do that, despite playoff woes, due to prolificity, MVP considerations, and incredible leverage he currently holds. The previous 4 QBs are properly paid (or will be), even though they’re not viable top-of-the-market situations… why would I say that? Because 55m$ isn’t the top QB number for 2024 and shouldn’t be what Dak is going for. 2024 had the highest cap jump in league history. 2023’s 55m$ is the same cap % as 61m$ in 2024. By taking a deal around 56m$, Dak’s agent would be tanking the QB’s market share relative to the cap for the first time in 6 years as no other QB is going to get that amount.



When this tweet came out, people went nuts at how apparently greedy Prescott is trying to be. But this is exactly what he should be asking for and getting. From 2022 offseason to 2023, the highest paid QB jumped by 5m$ AAV. 2021 to 2022 was 5m$. And now with the biggest cap jump in history, it hasn’t changed at all. I believe the holdup is Jerry doesn’t get this.

TLDR; Dak’s AAV should rightfully be starting with a 6; that’s not him getting a ridiculous number; that’s him getting the appropriate number. Dallas’ inability to accept that is the reason I believe there’s a real chance he’s elsewhere next season. Todd France is not going to accept a market-deflating deal.

This is Reality!!!

If the Cowboys want to flirt with being the most profitable Sports Entity but offer market-deflating deals they soon become a Vegas style attraction....Come to the Cowboys world...."free NFL game with Rodeo and concert tickets"