My problem with the draft

Outlaw Heroes

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You didn’t like the draft because they didn’t take names you recognized after round 3? Well, at least you admit it. That’s the same problem people who complain about the draft have every year.

(Psst. The standard move is to blame it on the team and say they were ‘reaching’. Try it. You might like it.)
 

waldoputty

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You didn’t like the draft because they didn’t take names you recognized after round 3? Well, at least you admit it. That’s the same problem people who complain about the draft have every year.

(Psst. The standard move is to blame it on the team and say they were ‘reaching’. Try it. You might like it.)

no, i actually liked the 1st 2 picks.
after the 3rd round, there were plenty of reports who the team likes and how they were taken ahead of them.
the fact that the players they wanted were gone was further corroborated by their 2 trade-downs.
the strategy of sitting and waiting made sense in the 2nd and 3rd round.
it did not make sense after the 3rd round.
 

northerncowboynation

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i really liked the 2nd and 3rd round picks. the value based approach made sense because it was known that it was a deep draft to about player 100.

but look at what happened after the 3rd round. the cowboys did not trade up even though the top half of the 4th round had better players that people wanted. and everyone knew that including all the teams. instead they kept sitting around again wanting to keep all their picks. while one may say that it was too expensive to trade up, that was simply not true. the patriots even traded ahead of cowboys in the 3rd with a 5th and a 2020 4th. imagined if cowboys got damien harris that was along with their picks...

players were traded ahead of the cowboys' #128 pick for pollard. in fact, picks 104, 109, 111, 114, 116.

even after cowboys' #128, others traded up before cowboys' 2nd 4th round pick, for example atlanta traded for #135 to take DE cominsky.

imagine if cowboys traded for picks to take rb damien harris and cb johnson while giving up their 2nd 4th, 5th and both 7th picks and perhap a 5th from 2020. their 2019 draft would be hill, mcgovern, rb harris, pollard, s hooker (or cb johnson). this draft would have been much more exciting.


Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick

Bengals move up

Bengals receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 104; select QB Ryan Finley)

49ers receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 110; select P Mitch Wishnowsky)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 183; select T Justin Skule)

Raiders swap with Colts

Colts receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 109; select S Khari Willis)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 129; select CB Isaiah Johnson)
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; trade to Atlanta)

Falcons trade up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 111; select CB Kendall Sheffield)

Lions receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 117; select DE Austin Bryant)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 186; select RB Ty Johnson)

Vikings trade up

Vikings receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 114; select G Dru Samia)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 120; select WR Gary Jennings)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 204; select RB Travis Homer)

Tennessee moves up

Titans receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 116; select S Amani Hooker)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 168; select LB D'Andre Walker)

Jets receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 121; select TE Trevon Wesco)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 157; select LB Blake Cashman)

Denver trades for player

Broncos receive:
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 212; trade to Panthers)
» LB Dekoda Watson

49ers receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 148; select LB Dre Greenlaw)

Rams trade up to draft DT

Rams receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 134; select DT Greg Gaines)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 243; select S Nick Scott)

Patriots receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 167; trade to Philadelphia)

Atlanta trades up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; select DE John Cominsky)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 137; select TE Foster Moreau)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 230; select DE Quinton Bell)

We all got problems man, some more real than others
 

Outlaw Heroes

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no, i actually liked the 1st 2 picks.
after the 3rd round, there were plenty of reports who the team likes and how they were taken ahead of them.
the fact that the players they wanted were gone was further corroborated by their 2 trade-downs.
the strategy of sitting and waiting made sense in the 2nd and 3rd round.
it did not make sense after the 3rd round.

I disagree. As the odds of hitting on a player decrease in the late rounds (only about 11% of NFL starters are 4th rounders and it drops to 4% by round 7) the picks increasingly become like lottery tickets. In other words, teams aren't very good at picking starters in these rounds. Sometimes they just get lucky.

That being the case, the best strategy for rounds 4-7 is probably to accumulate as many lottery tickets (or raffle tickets, if you prefer) and take as many shots at getting lucky as possible. That's an argument for trading down the board, not up the board (making the statistically unlikely bet that you're going to hit on that rare starter in a late round), as much as possible

(Strategy for round 1-3 is as you suggest: sit there and take your guy because history shows you do a better job of picking starters there.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...nt-is-success-to-draft-position/#34aab4467495
 

Jake

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imagine if cowboys traded for picks to take rb damien harris and cb johnson while giving up their 2nd 4th, 5th and both 7th picks and perhap a 5th from 2020. their 2019 draft would be hill, mcgovern, rb harris, pollard, s hooker (or cb johnson). this draft would have been much more exciting.

Setting aside that it's easy to say "trade up" without identifying who would trade down (and why), I prefer the players Dallas actually got over your hypothetical haul.

Day 3 picks face longer odds anyway, so I'd rather have more of them and hope to find a difference maker or two.
 

waldoputty

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I disagree. As the odds of hitting on a player decrease in the late rounds (only about 11% of NFL starters are 4th rounders and it drops to 4% by round 7) the picks increasingly become like lottery tickets. In other words, teams aren't very good at picking starters in these rounds. Sometimes they just get lucky.

That being the case, the best strategy for rounds 4-7 is probably to accumulate as many lottery tickets (or raffle tickets, if you prefer) and take as many shots at getting lucky as possible. That's an argument for trading down the board, not up the board (making the statistically unlikely bet that you're going to hit on that rare starter in a late round), as much as possible

(Strategy for round 1-3 is as you suggest: sit there and take your guy because history shows you do a better job of picking starters there.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...nt-is-success-to-draft-position/#34aab4467495

i understand what you are saying.
but that applies more to teams that could house all the picks to develop them.
in our case, slots are open, and the team may be forced to dump decent vets to keep marginal rookies.
if we were only worried about future years, then that makes sense also.
however we are trying to contend and 1 extra player out of the draft (e.g. safety) could make a difference.
 

waldoputty

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Setting aside that it's easy to say "trade up" without identifying who would trade down (and why), I prefer the players Dallas actually got over your hypothetical haul.

Day 3 picks face longer odds anyway, so I'd rather have more of them and hope to find a difference maker or two.

you prefer what we got over - hill, mcgovern, harris, pollard and either hooker or johnson???
 

ultron

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This team has drafted unbelievably well over the last 5 or so years and is loaded from top to bottom. If we can't win with this roster - then I assure you that it's not the freakin players. I'm a strong believer that if we don't at least make it to the NFC championship game; Jason G is gone.
 

blueblood70

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i really liked the 2nd and 3rd round picks. the value based approach made sense because it was known that it was a deep draft to about player 100.

but look at what happened after the 3rd round. the cowboys did not trade up even though the top half of the 4th round had better players that people wanted. and everyone knew that including all the teams. instead they kept sitting around again wanting to keep all their picks. while one may say that it was too expensive to trade up, that was simply not true. the patriots even traded ahead of cowboys in the 3rd with a 5th and a 2020 4th. imagined if cowboys got damien harris that was along with their picks...

players were traded ahead of the cowboys' #128 pick for pollard. in fact, picks 104, 109, 111, 114, 116.

even after cowboys' #128, others traded up before cowboys' 2nd 4th round pick, for example atlanta traded for #135 to take DE cominsky.

imagine if cowboys traded for picks to take rb damien harris and cb johnson while giving up their 2nd 4th, 5th and both 7th picks and perhap a 5th from 2020. their 2019 draft would be hill, mcgovern, rb harris, pollard, s hooker (or cb johnson). this draft would have been much more exciting.


Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick

Bengals move up

Bengals receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 104; select QB Ryan Finley)

49ers receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 110; select P Mitch Wishnowsky)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 183; select T Justin Skule)

Raiders swap with Colts

Colts receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 109; select S Khari Willis)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 129; select CB Isaiah Johnson)
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; trade to Atlanta)

Falcons trade up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 111; select CB Kendall Sheffield)

Lions receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 117; select DE Austin Bryant)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 186; select RB Ty Johnson)

Vikings trade up

Vikings receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 114; select G Dru Samia)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 120; select WR Gary Jennings)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 204; select RB Travis Homer)

Tennessee moves up

Titans receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 116; select S Amani Hooker)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 168; select LB D'Andre Walker)

Jets receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 121; select TE Trevon Wesco)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 157; select LB Blake Cashman)

Denver trades for player

Broncos receive:
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 212; trade to Panthers)
» LB Dekoda Watson

49ers receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 148; select LB Dre Greenlaw)

Rams trade up to draft DT

Rams receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 134; select DT Greg Gaines)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 243; select S Nick Scott)

Patriots receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 167; trade to Philadelphia)

Atlanta trades up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; select DE John Cominsky)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 137; select TE Foster Moreau)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 230; select DE Quinton Bell)
to you maybe , maybe fans but im guessing the Cowboys Scouts and FO looked at these scenarios and decided this was the best way to go about it and went with the draft..get over it , I trust team that runs billion Dollar business to make better decsions then FANS, Internet GMs, and all these fantasy football genius's..

Look we can judge these picks later, like Taco VS Watt thats nearly concluded but these picks need time to be judged and today isnt the day..This staff the last 5 drafts have many more hits then misses and ill trust them with 2019s draft until we see how it plays out..
 

big dog cowboy

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but look at what happened after the 3rd round. the cowboys did not trade up even though the top half of the 4th round had better players that people wanted. and everyone knew that including all the teams. instead they kept sitting around again wanting to keep all their picks.
The difference is the are players the Cowboys liked and players the Cowboys loved. They weren't trading up for a like player when a love player was falling to them.

Yes it's that simple. They drafted their board.
 

waldoputty

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The difference is the are players the Cowboys liked and players the Cowboys loved. They weren't trading up for a like player when a love player was falling to them.

Yes it's that simple. They drafted their board.

they drafted their board and when their players were taken in front of them, they traded back.
the question is why they did not traded up in the 4th when it was clear that the players they really liked were going to be gone.
may be their draft scores are higher this way, but you still need to cut vets to make space for the less-desirable players they settled for when they traded back instead of trading up.
 

xwalker

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i really liked the 2nd and 3rd round picks. the value based approach made sense because it was known that it was a deep draft to about player 100.

but look at what happened after the 3rd round. the cowboys did not trade up even though the top half of the 4th round had better players that people wanted. and everyone knew that including all the teams. instead they kept sitting around again wanting to keep all their picks. while one may say that it was too expensive to trade up, that was simply not true. the patriots even traded ahead of cowboys in the 3rd with a 5th and a 2020 4th. imagined if cowboys got damien harris that was along with their picks...

players were traded ahead of the cowboys' #128 pick for pollard. in fact, picks 104, 109, 111, 114, 116.

even after cowboys' #128, others traded up before cowboys' 2nd 4th round pick, for example atlanta traded for #135 to take DE cominsky.

imagine if cowboys traded for picks to take rb damien harris and cb johnson while giving up their 2nd 4th, 5th and both 7th picks and perhap a 5th from 2020. their 2019 draft would be hill, mcgovern, rb harris, pollard, s hooker (or cb johnson). this draft would have been much more exciting.


Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick

Bengals move up

Bengals receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 104; select QB Ryan Finley)

49ers receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 110; select P Mitch Wishnowsky)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 183; select T Justin Skule)

Raiders swap with Colts

Colts receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 109; select S Khari Willis)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 129; select CB Isaiah Johnson)
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; trade to Atlanta)

Falcons trade up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 111; select CB Kendall Sheffield)

Lions receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 117; select DE Austin Bryant)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 186; select RB Ty Johnson)

Vikings trade up

Vikings receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 114; select G Dru Samia)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 120; select WR Gary Jennings)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 204; select RB Travis Homer)

Tennessee moves up

Titans receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 116; select S Amani Hooker)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 168; select LB D'Andre Walker)

Jets receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 121; select TE Trevon Wesco)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 157; select LB Blake Cashman)

Denver trades for player

Broncos receive:
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 212; trade to Panthers)
» LB Dekoda Watson

49ers receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 148; select LB Dre Greenlaw)

Rams trade up to draft DT

Rams receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 134; select DT Greg Gaines)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 243; select S Nick Scott)

Patriots receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 167; trade to Philadelphia)

Atlanta trades up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; select DE John Cominsky)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 137; select TE Foster Moreau)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 230; select DE Quinton Bell)


Pollard:
The reason that Pollard was not rated higher by the media is because he shared carries with two other RBs with NFL talent.

The Cowboys really wanted a hybrid RB/WR type player like Pollard that is also big enough to block when used as a slot WR.

Memphis had 3 RBs on their roster that will play in the NFL.
Darrell Henderson (5-8, 208) Round 3, Pick 6
Tony Pollard (6-0, 210) Round 4, Pick 26
Patrick Taylor Jr. (6-3, 223) (Projected 2020 2nd to 4th rounds)

The draft media puts a lot of emphasis on stats when ranking mid/late round picks because they don't have time to grind through hours of game footage for all draft eligible players.

The draft media focuses their game footage review time on the top 100 or so players.

The draft media would not rank Pollard higher regardless of how he looked in game footage because he was not the starting RB.


Isaiah Johnson / Mike Jackson:
I get the feeling that the Cowboys only had Johnson slightly ahead of Jackson in their rankings.

Player....Isaiah Johnson
School....Houston
Height.....6-2
Weight....208

40-Yd.....4.40
10-YD.....1.55
Hands.....8.75
Age........23.36

Player....Michael Jackson
School....Miami
Grade.....5th
Height.....6-1
Weight....210

40-Yd.....4.45
10-YD.....1.60
Hands.....9.75
Age........22.30
 

waldoputty

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Pollard:
The reason that Pollard was not rated higher by the media is because he shared carries with two other RBs with NFL talent.

The Cowboys really wanted a hybrid RB/WR type player like Pollard that is also big enough to block when used as a slot WR.

Memphis had 3 RBs on their roster that will play in the NFL.
Darrell Henderson (5-8, 208) Round 3, Pick 6
Tony Pollard (6-0, 210) Round 4, Pick 26
Patrick Taylor Jr. (6-3, 223) (Projected 2020 2nd to 4th rounds)

The draft media puts a lot of emphasis on stats when ranking mid/late round picks because they don't have time to grind through hours of game footage for all draft eligible players.

The draft media focuses their game footage review time on the top 100 or so players.

The draft media would not rank Pollard higher regardless of how he looked in game footage because he was not the starting RB.


Isaiah Johnson / Mike Jackson:
I get the feeling that the Cowboys only had Johnson slightly ahead of Jackson in their rankings.

Player....Isaiah Johnson
School....Houston
Height.....6-2
Weight....208

40-Yd.....4.40
10-YD.....1.55
Hands.....8.75
Age........23.36

Player....Michael Jackson
School....Miami
Grade.....5th
Height.....6-1
Weight....210

40-Yd.....4.45
10-YD.....1.60
Hands.....9.75
Age........22.30

for me, it is not how the media rate the players but the media reported as the motivations for what the cowboys did.

lets use johnson - jackson as an example. it has been widely reported that johnson was preferred over jackson. why, it could be the little difference in stats. it could also be that jackson supposedly had trouble with recovery speed as well as turning around to see the ball. perhaps johnson is better there but i dont know. but again, it was clear that cowboys preferred johnson, so we should go with that.

the issue is that the cowboys are already a deep team. keeping rookies would mean dumping vets that can play decently in 2019. we may indeed be putting development ahead of 2019 success.

that is probably the issue many have with the draft strategy in trading back. perhaps the total likelihood of getting a better draft outcome by trading back. but it is not taking account of the ding we get in 2019 if those rookies have to play.

instead of more rookies who are slightly rated worse, i would rather see less rookies, who each may be slightly better than if we traded back.
 
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