My problem with the draft

xwalker

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for me, it is not how the media rate the players but the media reported as the motivations for what the cowboys did.

lets use johnson - jackson as an example. it has been widely reported that johnson was preferred over jackson. why, it could be the little difference in stats. it could also be that jackson supposedly had trouble with recovery speed as well as turning around to see the ball. perhaps johnson is better there but i dont know. but again, it was clear that cowboys preferred johnson, so we should go with that.

the issue is that the cowboys are already a deep team. keeping rookies would mean dumping vets that can play decently in 2019. we may indeed be putting development ahead of 2019 success.

that is probably the issue many have with the draft strategy in trading back. perhaps the total likelihood of getting a better draft outcome by trading back. but it is not taking account of the ding we get in 2019 if those rookies have to play.

instead of more rookies who are slightly rated worse, i would rather see less rookies, who each may be slightly better than if we traded back.

"Widely Reported" in the internet age is a bit misleading. Back when it was reported that there was a tape of Dez doing something bad, it seemed like it was widely reported; however, it turned out that there was 1 actual source and other media and fans just repeated it so much on the internet, that it seemed like multiple reports.

If you want to make a clear point, you need to completely separate trading down, trading up and Isaiah Johnson because they are 3 separate issues.

Trading Down:
By the time they traded down from 136, they had already made the decision not to trade up in the 3rd or 2nd round; therefore, trading down from 136 was independent of the concept of trading up in the 2nd/3rd.f

It's not as-if they made the trade while the 2nd or 3rd rounds were still in progress.

By itself, trading down made perfect sense. They had a large number of players with similar rankings remaining at that point. By getting extra picks, they increased their probability of success.


Isaiah Johnson:
This was not really a trade up or trade down issue. It was about drafting Pollard at 128 instead of Johnson.

The Cowboys had picks 128 and 136 in the 4th round.

That means that after they picked Pollard at 128, there would be 7 picks before the Cowboys were on the clock for pick 136.

If they had really loved Isaiah Johnson, then they would have picked him at 128.

If he had been picked at 127 and then they drafted Pollard at 128, we (fans) would think that Johnson had been their target at 128, but because he was instead picked at 129, we know that Pollard was their target over Johnson.


Trading up from 90:
We do know they liked Thornhill who was picked at 63.

Using the trade chart, 63 is worth 276 points.

All of their remaining picks 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th and 7th are worth 249 points.

Therefore trading up for Thornhill was not an option.


Trade up from 128:
Trading all remaining picks would get them to 98.

By 98, the following players were already gone:
CB Justin Layne
RB Damien Harris
Safety Will Harris
TE Jace Sternberger
TE Dawson Knox
DE Jaylon Ferguson
WR Jalen Hurd
 

speedkilz88

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Before the draft Broaddus claimed that this draft was very strong in the 3rd to 5th rounds. McClay today on the Draft Show said that the middle rounds was the deepest/strongest area of the draft. They didn't want to lose those type picks, they wanted more of them.
 

waldoputty

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"Widely Reported" in the internet age is a bit misleading. Back when it was reported that there was a tape of Dez doing something bad, it seemed like it was widely reported; however, it turned out that there was 1 actual source and other media and fans just repeated it so much on the internet, that it seemed like multiple reports.

If you want to make a clear point, you need to completely separate trading down, trading up and Isaiah Johnson because they are 3 separate issues.

Trading Down:
By the time they traded down from 136, they had already made the decision not to trade up in the 3rd or 2nd round; therefore, trading down from 136 was independent of the concept of trading up in the 2nd/3rd.f

It's not as-if they made the trade while the 2nd or 3rd rounds were still in progress.

By itself, trading down made perfect sense. They had a large number of players with similar rankings remaining at that point. By getting extra picks, they increased their probability of success.


Isaiah Johnson:
This was not really a trade up or trade down issue. It was about drafting Pollard at 128 instead of Johnson.

The Cowboys had picks 128 and 136 in the 4th round.

That means that after they picked Pollard at 128, there would be 7 picks before the Cowboys were on the clock for pick 136.

If they had really loved Isaiah Johnson, then they would have picked him at 128.

If he had been picked at 127 and then they drafted Pollard at 128, we (fans) would think that Johnson had been their target at 128, but because he was instead picked at 129, we know that Pollard was their target over Johnson.


Trading up from 90:
We do know they liked Thornhill who was picked at 63.

Using the trade chart, 63 is worth 276 points.

All of their remaining picks 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th and 7th are worth 249 points.

Therefore trading up for Thornhill was not an option.


Trade up from 128:
Trading all remaining picks would get them to 98.

By 98, the following players were already gone:
CB Justin Layne
RB Damien Harris
Safety Will Harris
TE Jace Sternberger
TE Dawson Knox
DE Jaylon Ferguson
WR Jalen Hurd


you make some good points.
however, there is some misunderstanding on what you think i am suggesting.
i do not think thornhill was an option unless they trade their 2nd or 1st from 2020 - not going to happen.
my scenario was to trade the 2nd 4th round pick, 5th, 7th and 7th and 2020 5th and perhaps 6th for #87 and a 4th round pick before the slot we drafted pollard.
this way we could have ended up with hill, mcgovern, harris, pollard and either johnson or someone like hooker.

and i do not mean to trade up from 90.
the patriots traded for #87 to draft harris using a 2020 4th and a 2019 5th. certainly we could have made the same trade. for example a 2020 4th and a 2019 5th with an additional 2020 pick (5th or 6th) beats the patriots offer. with #87, we could have taken harris the te or someone like knox the te. this draft was known to be deep up to about #100, and this would be a reasonable strategy if the team was aggressive for 2019.

regarding trading up for johnson, i would have used the 2nd 4th round to trade up with the 5th and perhaps the 7th. it is very common in drafts the 1st 5-10 players in the 4th round (beginning of 3rd day) are higher rated players that got through the 2nd day. this almost happens every year that i remember. trades were available as many trades happened in those slots. you could have used that trade up to draft johnson or someone like hooker.
 
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waldoputty

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did a little digging to see difference between johnson and jackson cb.
apparently johnson has decent makeup speed whereas jackson does not.
that is a reasonably important difference.
that is not to say jackson is useless.
but it is an issue of quality vs quantity.
cowboys have plenty of vets and the strategy would be to replace less of the vets but replace them with higher rated rookies.
 

xwalker

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and i do not mean to trade up from 90.
the patriots traded for #87 to draft harris using a 2020 4th and a 2019 5th. certainly we could have made the same trade. for example a 2020 4th and a 2019 5th with an additional 2020 pick (5th or 6th) beats the patriots offer. with #87, we could have taken harris the te or someone like knox the te. this draft was known to be deep up to about #100, and this would be a reasonable strategy if the team was aggressive for 2019.
The Patriots got 87 by trading down from 73:

Chicago Received
73
205

New England Received
87
162
2020 4th
 

xwalker

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my scenario was to trade the 2nd 4th round pick, 5th, 7th and 7th and 2020 5th and perhaps 6th for #87 and a 4th round pick before the slot we drafted pollard.
this way we could have ended up with hill, mcgovern, harris, pollard and either johnson or someone like hooker.

Your suggestion:
  • 2nd 4th round pick
  • 5th
  • 7th
  • 7th
  • 2020 5th and perhaps 6th
  • for #87 and a 4th round pick before the slot we drafted pollard.


Cowboys Original Picks:
58 - 2nd
90 - 3rd
128 - 4th
136 - 4th
165 - 5th
241 - 7th

I think this is what you are suggesting to give up in order to get #87:
136 - 4th
165 - 5th
241 - 7th
2020 - 5th
2020 - 6th

The chart value of those picks is about 81. Lets say the Cowboys get a bargain trade and bump the points value up to 96:

The 96 points is worth pick 101.

Pick 87 is worth 155 points.

Even adding the other 4th round pick (128) wouldn't get you enough points to trade for 87.
 

waldoputty

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The Patriots got 87 by trading down from 73:

Chicago Received
73
205

New England Received
87
162
2020 4th

this is what i got from some website:

Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick
 

xwalker

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this is what i got from some website:

Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick

It should be more than obvious that it is incorrect.
 

waldoputty

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It should be more than obvious that it is incorrect.

i thought they made a good trade.
assuming that trade is wrong, i think there is still enough draft capital to move the 2nd 4th round pick to early 4th round.
and perhaps even push the 5th round into late 4th round.
that obviously assumes we use some draft capital from 2020 - like a 4th and a 5th.
i dont know how to calculate trade values, at least have not looked into it
 

xwalker

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i thought they made a good trade.
assuming that trade is wrong, i think there is still enough draft capital to move the 2nd 4th round pick to early 4th round.
and perhaps even push the 5th round into late 4th round.
that obviously assumes we use some draft capital from 2020 - like a 4th and a 5th.
i dont know how to calculate trade values, at least have not looked into it

I don't understand why you created this thread if you don't know how trade values are determined.
 

waldoputty

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I don't understand why you created this thread if you don't know how trade values are determined.

the idea was to trade up when you have such a deep team.
people know where the draft is strong - up to about 100
and there are always some higher rated players in the 1st 5-10 slots of the 4th round (after people have the night to think over what to do)
that happens every year
they should have marshalled enough resources to at least get 1-2 players early in the 4th.
 

Redball Express

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i really liked the 2nd and 3rd round picks. the value based approach made sense because it was known that it was a deep draft to about player 100.

but look at what happened after the 3rd round. the cowboys did not trade up even though the top half of the 4th round had better players that people wanted. and everyone knew that including all the teams. instead they kept sitting around again wanting to keep all their picks. while one may say that it was too expensive to trade up, that was simply not true. the patriots even traded ahead of cowboys in the 3rd with a 5th and a 2020 4th. imagined if cowboys got damien harris that was along with their picks...

players were traded ahead of the cowboys' #128 pick for pollard. in fact, picks 104, 109, 111, 114, 116.

even after cowboys' #128, others traded up before cowboys' 2nd 4th round pick, for example atlanta traded for #135 to take DE cominsky.

imagine if cowboys traded for picks to take rb damien harris and cb johnson while giving up their 2nd 4th, 5th and both 7th picks and perhap a 5th from 2020. their 2019 draft would be hill, mcgovern, rb harris, pollard, s hooker (or cb johnson). this draft would have been much more exciting.


Patriots trade up

Patriots receive:
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 87; select RB Damien Harris)

Bears receive:
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2020 fourth-round pick

Bengals move up

Bengals receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 104; select QB Ryan Finley)

49ers receive:
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 110; select P Mitch Wishnowsky)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 183; select T Justin Skule)

Raiders swap with Colts

Colts receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 109; select S Khari Willis)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 129; select CB Isaiah Johnson)
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; trade to Atlanta)

Falcons trade up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 111; select CB Kendall Sheffield)

Lions receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 117; select DE Austin Bryant)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 186; select RB Ty Johnson)

Vikings trade up

Vikings receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 114; select G Dru Samia)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 120; select WR Gary Jennings)
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 204; select RB Travis Homer)

Tennessee moves up

Titans receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 116; select S Amani Hooker)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 168; select LB D'Andre Walker)

Jets receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 121; select TE Trevon Wesco)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 157; select LB Blake Cashman)

Denver trades for player

Broncos receive:
» 2019 sixth-round (No. 212; trade to Panthers)
» LB Dekoda Watson

49ers receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 148; select LB Dre Greenlaw)

Rams trade up to draft DT

Rams receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 134; select DT Greg Gaines)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 243; select S Nick Scott)

Patriots receive:
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 162; trade to Minnesota)
» 2019 fifth-round (No. 167; trade to Philadelphia)

Atlanta trades up

Falcons receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 135; select DE John Cominsky)

Raiders receive:
» 2019 fourth-round (No. 137; select TE Foster Moreau)
» 2019 seventh-round (No. 230; select DE Quinton Bell)
So you are saying Will Clay is an idiot?

How dare you.
 

xwalker

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the idea was to trade up when you have such a deep team.
people know where the draft is strong - up to about 100
and there are always some higher rated players in the 1st 5-10 slots of the 4th round (after people have the night to think over what to do)
that happens every year
they should have marshalled enough resources to at least get 1-2 players early in the 4th.

They would have to use 2020 picks to move to the top of the 4th.

Looking at the players drafted between 100 and their pick at 128, I'm not certain there were any players they liked more than Pollard.

The talent does not disburse the same every year with regards to a specific area of the draft.
 

waldoputty

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They would have to use 2020 picks to move to the top of the 4th.

Looking at the players drafted between 100 and their pick at 128, I'm not certain there were any players they liked more than Pollard.

The talent does not disburse the same every year with regards to a specific area of the draft.

i disagree. the beginning of the 4th has always been where the leftover higher rated players are picked up. that is probably because teams had a night to think things over.

they did like johnson and argued over him.
there could have been a safety also...
 

Hennessy_King

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I don't understand why you created this thread if you don't know how trade values are determined.
You are going by the trade charts. There are plenty of trades that were made were teams were able to make trades below the values on the trade charts.
 
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