New 4th and 15 onside kick rule?

[JD_KaPow]

So you kick a field goal from the 20 to start the 4th quarter. You run a 15 yard play and keep the ball. You drive 5 minutes into field goal range, get 3, run a 15 yard play, repeat.

There's going to be teams that keep the ball all 4th quarter without much trouble.

There's also going to become special packages on offense specifically for this 15 yard attempt.

They're acting like it's a small change, this change would dramatically impact 4th quarter strategy

This just isn't true (the part about "keep the ball..without much trouble." Teams convert these kinds of plays 15% of the time. And any offensive special package will be countered by defensive special packages.

The difference is that 15% is double the conversion rate of onside kicks (well, higher than that, because we should factor out surprise onside kicks). So yes, teams will be more likely to convert, and therefore more likely to attempt these plays. But we're not talking about going to a 50-50 play by any stretch. (Note to the OP: Aaron Rodgers was below average at converting these last year).

I'm all for providing a late-game catch-up option with better odds than the modern onside kick. And I'm all for replacing kicking plays with football plays. So I like the idea.

 

[aria]

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/24/john-mara-is-only-competition-committee-member-opposed-to-onside-kick-alternative/

This is a terrible idea, and Dallas would have a huge disadvantage if passed.

Now I know you’re lying, everyone here says Mara is always out so screw us but he’s the only one against it!
He also happens to be absolutely right, I like his quote “What are we, the Arena Football League”?

This is the most stupid rule change I think I’ve ever heard and completely changes the game in a bad way. Especially with the subjective/random PI calls, there’s a good chance a team doesn’t even have to complete a pass, just throw it 15 yards and a flag will be thrown resulting in an automatic 1st down. It’s almost as if the NFL is trying to drive away fans.

 

[aria]

If Gronk is healthy the Pats may never have to play a single down on defense.

Don’t have to worry about that anymore, Gronk just announced his retirement.

 

[JustChip]

I don’t know the details but I assume the ball will be given to the offense if the D commits an automatic 1st down penalty? So even more chances for refs to throw flags??

Yep....that's a potentially huge issue. But the solution is that a defensive penalty like holding is an automatic first down, but the distance to gain remains the same. However, 15 yards is too easy; I'd say at least 4th and 20, maybe 25. That's still more likely to attain than the current on-side kick. So in that situation, if there's a defensive penalty that results in a 1st down, it doesn't become 1st and 10, but 1st and 20 (or 25). That way, the offense has to, at some point, get the 20 or 25 yards on their own initiative.

 

[JayFord]

I’m for it

I mean the way onsides kicks are structured now I’d be shocked if you had a 2 percent chance of recovering it

 

[JayFord]

Or if they want to keep it special teams based

1. Kick a 64 yard field goal and if you make it you get the ball from the 25

2. Xfl scramble. Place the ball at the 50 yard line and have two people from the non scoring team one on the 20 and one on the 35 and one from the scoring team line up on the 35 and race to the ball if the scoring team gets it they get the ball at the 25, if not they have to do a regular kickoff

 

[jchap]

4th and 15 on the 1 and I'm in

 

[percyhoward]

This just isn't true (the part about "keep the ball..without much trouble." Teams convert these kinds of plays 15% of the time. And any offensive special package will be countered by defensive special packages.

The difference is that 15% is double the conversion rate of onside kicks (well, higher than that, because we should factor out surprise onside kicks). So yes, teams will be more likely to convert, and therefore more likely to attempt these plays. But we're not talking about going to a 50-50 play by any stretch. (Note to the OP: Aaron Rodgers was below average at converting these last year).

I'm all for providing a late-game catch-up option with better odds than the modern onside kick. And I'm all for replacing kicking plays with football plays. So I like the idea.

I actually like it too. Makes me wonder who came up with it.

 

[percyhoward]

In case anybody's wondering, no QB has more than 4 attempts on 4th and 15+ when trailing in the 4th quarter over the last three years. Dak has a perfect 158.3 passer rating on his two attempts.

 

[coult44]

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/24/john-mara-is-only-competition-committee-member-opposed-to-onside-kick-alternative/

This is a terrible idea, and Dallas would have a huge disadvantage if passed. This favors teams with elite quarterbacks HUGELY.

Imagine Aaron Rodgers against the Dolphins. He'd have a 80% chance of converting the inside kick. Lol

Special teams should determine onside kicks, not quarterbacks.

Bad idea.

Imagine a team playing great defense for A full game and then gets penalized for one bad pass interference call on a 4-15 that cost them the game

 

[_sturt_]

It would be a lot easier and make more sense, to just allow teams to follow the old kickoff rules ONLY for onside kicks.

Like the team can declare to refs, we are going to onside kick. Then they can let the kicking team get a running start like before.

Changing the rule completely to this 4th and 15 crap is stupid.

I think you're on to something, except I much prefer it not having to be elected, and conserving the element of surprise. If I get to be NFL king, I'd just say the old rule applies beginning in the 4th quarter, and leave it at that.

But back to reality... we only have this in the first place because of the liability-conscious point that there is added risk on the traditional kickoff play. They're not going back on that.

I start with this premise. There is a delicate balance here where the kicker in a game called football can become too important or too marginalized. I like it about where it already is, so, I'm not a fan of the 4th/15 crap, either.




Let me throw this one out there and see how it's received, because it doesn't set any new precedent, but rather just expands on what already exists.

Allow teams to implement a free kick on the kickoff, if they so choose...

The downside being that they kick from their own 20, but the upside being that they can, effectively, "onside punt" the ball with some likely better success than the regular kick off from their 35.

Take a look...

 

[JD_KaPow]

Yep....that's a potentially huge issue. But the solution is that a defensive penalty like holding is an automatic first down, but the distance to gain remains the same. However, 15 yards is too easy; I'd say at least 4th and 20, maybe 25. That's still more likely to attain than the current on-side kick. So in that situation, if there's a defensive penalty that results in a 1st down, it doesn't become 1st and 10, but 1st and 20 (or 25). That way, the offense has to, at some point, get the 20 or 25 yards on their own initiative.

Here are conversion rates since 2000 for 4th-and-long. I used 3-yard ranges, so 20 yards to go became 19-21 yards to go. I didn't include 3rd-and-long because too many of those aren't serious attempts to convert. I did not try to factor out surprise onside kicks, so the actual conversion rate for obvious onside kicks will be a bit lower.

Onside kicks (2018): 7.7%

15 yards to go: 23.5% (285 plays)
20 yards to go: 12.2% (131 plays)
25 yards to go: 13.3% (30 plays)

A couple things:

• Yeah, the conversion rate on 4th-and-15 might be a tad higher than ideal.
• The penalty thing is a straw man. Only 8 of these 446 plays were penalty conversions. No reason to worry about it.

4th-and-20 might be the best choice: a one-in-eight conversion chance sounds about right.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Imagine a team playing great defense for A full game and then gets penalized for one bad pass interference call on a 4-15 that cost them the game

In your scenario, that defense gave up a score just before that play, and then gave up a score right after that play. So I wonder how great their defense really was for the full game.

Also, I can turn that around. "Imagine a team playing great defense for a full game and then the special teams botches one onside kick recovery that cost them the game." It's not clear to me that that's any better.

 

[JayFord]

Here are conversion rates since 2000 for 4th-and-long. I used 3-yard ranges, so 20 yards to go became 19-21 yards to go. I didn't include 3rd-and-long because too many of those aren't serious attempts to convert. I did not try to factor out surprise onside kicks, so the actual conversion rate for obvious onside kicks will be a bit lower.

Onside kicks (2018): 7.7%

15 yards to go: 23.5% (285 plays)
20 yards to go: 12.2% (131 plays)
25 yards to go: 13.3% (30 plays)

A couple things:

• Yeah, the conversion rate on 4th-and-15 might be a tad higher than ideal.
• The penalty thing is a straw man. Only 8 of these 446 plays were penalty conversions. No reason to worry about it.

4th-and-20 might be the best choice: a one-in-eight conversion chance sounds about right.

This sounds great (awesome breakdown btw)

I’ll throw in my 2 cents

The baddest dude should throw hands with the baddest dude on the other team whoever wins gets the ball at the 30 an extra five for kicking butt

 

[lostar2009]

Don't see how this works by awarding teams 15 yards to complete for possession. Elite offenses can make this happen 50% of the time. This is another reason why the NFL is loosing ratings. They give way too much to the offense.

 

[SDCowboy]

So similar to what they do in the AAF?

 

[Diehardblues]

This is what I love about the Alliance league. It’s exploring new ideas and implementing technologies and in this case a means for games to be more exciting finish.

You have to be trailing by 17 points or more and under 5 minutes to play to opt for the 4th and 15 to retain possession. Why not..

 

[conner01]

If Gronk is healthy the Pats may never have to play a single down on defense.

Except he’s retiring

 

[Diehardblues]

So similar to what they do in the AAF?

Right except theirs is 4th and 12 from 28 yard line where NFL is 4th and 15 from 35 yard line.

 

[Diehardblues]

Don't see how this works by awarding teams 15 yards to complete for possession. Elite offenses can make this happen 50% of the time. This is another reason why the NFL is loosing ratings. They give way too much to the offense.

How many Elite offenses or QB’s are going to be down 17 points after scoring with under 5 minutes to play?