New 4th and 15 onside kick rule?

[lukin2006]

Why don't they just take the pads away and play flag football...that's where the NFL is headed...

 

[gjkoeppen]

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/24/john-mara-is-only-competition-committee-member-opposed-to-onside-kick-alternative/

This is a terrible idea, and Dallas would have a huge disadvantage if passed. This favors teams with elite quarterbacks HUGELY.

Imagine Aaron Rodgers against the Dolphins. He'd have a 80% chance of converting the inside kick. Lol

Special teams should determine onside kicks, not quarterbacks.

Bad idea.

So now the NFL is copying the AAF? That's what they do because there are no kickoffs and it's only 12 yards instead of 15. Hopefully there will be 8 more old school owners to vote against this.
.

 

[Bizwah]

The 17 points is what the Alliance league is using and what most have said the NFL would adopt with 5 minutes remaining . Here’s the link I was using as reference.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...nge-that-competition-committee-seems-to-like/

Thanks.

It seems like the NFL isn't going that route. Seems like they're just saying one time a game in the fourth quarter. That makes more sense to me. Still not in favor of the rule, however.

 

[Diehardblues]

So now the NFL is copying the AAF? That's what they do because there are no kickoffs and it's only 12 yards instead of 15. Hopefully there will be 8 more old school owners to vote against this.
.

That’s part of why the NFL is aligning themselves with the Alliance league so they can experiment with rules they can consider implementing themselves while developing players.

 

[Diehardblues]

Thanks.

It seems like the NFL isn't going that route. Seems like they're just saying one time a game in the fourth quarter. That makes more sense to me. Still not in favor of the rule, however.

I wouldn’t be in as much favor doing it anytime in 4th qtr. I support how the Alliance league has implemented.

And I think there’d be more support as such.

 

[gjkoeppen]

You can tell by the rule changes the past few years that they are slowly getting rid of kickoffs. It's the most dangerous (top speed, high collisions) play in the football.
One, there are NFL people who generally care about players welfare and want to make the game safer. Two, from a legal standpoint, it shows the league is taking real steps to reduce opportunities for concussions.

Mark my words, within 10 years the kickoff will be gone, and kids will not play tackle football until 12, possibly high school age. It's the only way football will survive.

The difference between the NFL and the leagues kids play in through college is NFL players get paid, very well, and in taking that money they are accepting the risks. The changes the league has made the past couple of years has resulted in a loss of at least some casual fans. Now hard core fans are hard core fans but even hard core fans will get to a point where when the game isn't even close to how it was played when they were kids that they will start to lose interest and watching. The hard core fans are hard core fans in large part because this is the sport where there is hitting and the more the league changes the rules and turn it into less hitting the hard core fans will start to think about throwing in the towel. I really do see a day when the league could rule themselves right out of business. I'm hoping that when the view numbers start to shrink enough that they will change some rules to revert back to when the NFL was the NFL.
.

 

[Diehardblues]

The difference between the NFL and the leagues kids play in through college is NFL players get paid, very well, and in taking that money they are accepting the risks. The changes the league has made the past couple of years has resulted in a loss of at least some casual fans. Now hard core fans are hard core fans but even hard core fans will get to a point where when the game isn't even close to how it was played when they were kids that they will start to lose interest and watching. The hard core fans are hard core fans in large part because this is the sport where there is hitting and the more the league changes the rules and turn it into less hitting the hard core fans will start to think about throwing in the towel. I really do see a day when the league could rule themselves right out of business. I'm hoping that when the view numbers start to shrink enough that they will change some rules to revert back to when the NFL was the NFL.
.

I understand but the dilemma the league faces is if they don’t take action litigation could end the league sooner than fans leaving it.

And why there has to be a balance in implementing rules that can at least present a perception they are attempting to protect the players while not destroying the integrity of the game for the fans.

It’s a tough balance but the league couldn’t continue their course with all of the new scientific evidence and litigation they’ve already incurred.

 

[Mannix]

-------People once thought this about the forward pass, helmets, and then face masks. The game evolves.

No way the NBA commissioner would go along with this....he has vision....this is NOT vision....this idea is ASININE, and the league has damn near lost me completely!!!

 

[InTheZone]

let's just keep changing the rules to completely different things and keep calling it the NFL!!!!

 

[TheCoolFan]

I like the concept but the proposed format is too easy. It should be like 4th and 25 at your own 1 yard line

 

[DandyDon52]

I think the AAF is using something like this ??

There was no reason to change the rules on onside kick to begin with!
people liked it the way it was. people dont like changes.
They should go back to the way it was.

 

[Brax]

Here are conversion rates since 2000 for 4th-and-long. I used 3-yard ranges, so 20 yards to go became 19-21 yards to go. I didn't include 3rd-and-long because too many of those aren't serious attempts to convert. I did not try to factor out surprise onside kicks, so the actual conversion rate for obvious onside kicks will be a bit lower.

Onside kicks (2018): 7.7%

15 yards to go: 23.5% (285 plays)
20 yards to go: 12.2% (131 plays)
25 yards to go: 13.3% (30 plays)

A couple things:

• Yeah, the conversion rate on 4th-and-15 might be a tad higher than ideal.
• The penalty thing is a straw man. Only 8 of these 446 plays were penalty conversions. No reason to worry about it.

4th-and-20 might be the best choice: a one-in-eight conversion chance sounds about right.

Over 10 years before 2018 recover rate was a average of 15% (no factoring out for surprise Kicks) ,so 20 yards is better. The game is slowly being destroyed. Thanks for the info greatly appreciated it.

 

[DallasEast]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/23/a-closer-look-at-the-onside-kick-alternative/

Since certain people are taking this idea and adding nonsense that won’t be part of the rule change to fuel their constant paranoid induced posts.

Good post.

 

[_sturt_]

So, I'm a tad bit surprised this hasn't piqued any yay or nay either way by now, cognizant that (again) the AAF thing doesn't even actually come into play in the scenario that is typical of an onside kick occurring (ie, down by one score with less than 4 min). To the contrary, the AAF thing is just a blatant attempt to keep potential advertisers happy by giving people some convoluted reason not to turn the channel.

Something very different needs to be imagined, and not so convoluted, yet cognizant that liability concerns are not going away...



But back to reality... we only have this in the first place because of the liability-conscious point that there is added risk on the traditional kickoff play. They're not going back on that.

I start with this premise. There is a delicate balance here where the kicker in a game called football can become too important or too marginalized. I like it about where it already is, so, I'm not a fan of the 4th/15 crap, either.

Let me throw this one out there and see how it's received, because it doesn't set any new precedent, but rather just expands on what already exists.

Allow teams to implement a free kick on the kickoff, if they so choose...

The downside being that they kick from their own 20, but the upside being that they can, effectively, "onside punt" the ball with some likely better success than the regular kick off from their 35.

Take a look...

 

[jrumann59]

You can tell by the rule changes the past few years that they are slowly getting rid of kickoffs. It's the most dangerous (top speed, high collisions) play in the football.
One, there are NFL people who generally care about players welfare and want to make the game safer. Two, from a legal standpoint, it shows the league is taking real steps to reduce opportunities for concussions.

Mark my words, within 10 years the kickoff will be gone, and kids will not play tackle football until 12, possibly high school age. It's the only way football will survive.

which means talent will take longer to develop. I am not saying talented players will be less but that very good players will not 6 years more of playing and developing. So what is going to happen to disorganized football, you know the backyard tackle football league many of us had to play in since "Little League" football is not in every town.

 

[silvrNblue]

More ignorance, from the ignorant...good grief. I swear, it's as if they go drink a ton of scotch, beer and whatever else assorted cocktails, then sit around and try to come up with the most inane, dufus *** malarkey. Who ever does, I will assume wins a damn door prize...

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/24/john-mara-is-only-competition-committee-member-opposed-to-onside-kick-alternative/

This is a terrible idea, and Dallas would have a huge disadvantage if passed. This favors teams with elite quarterbacks HUGELY.

Imagine Aaron Rodgers against the Dolphins. He'd have a 80% chance of converting the inside kick. Lol

Special teams should determine onside kicks, not quarterbacks.

Bad idea.

We'd have the advantage over the majority of teams if that's all your basing it off of.

 

[KingintheNorth]

which means talent will take longer to develop. I am not saying talented players will be less but that very good players will not 6 years more of playing and developing. So what is going to happen to disorganized football, you know the backyard tackle football league many of us had to play in since "Little League" football is not in every town.

To an extent, think of it like little league baseball. They have banned or strongly reduced breaking/curve balls so that kids don't destroy their arms before they are closer to physical maturation. There are still plenty of other baseball-related skills that can be developed and the players still have plenty of time in later adolescence to develop the skills to make those pitches.

With football, you can teach 90% of the football-related skills...throwing, catching, route running, avoidance, back pedaling. and coverage, even some blocking and pass rushing...and then when they get older and more physically mature, you teach them how to tackle. The game will survive. Tradition is great. Safety and the long-term survival of tackle football are more important.

 

[Parcells4Life]

Why should they make it easier for a team that has been losing the entire game to have a chance to win by stealing it at the end?

Otherwise why not just end the game at the 2 minute warning? And games that are back and forth the entire game deserve for the team to have a chance.

It’s not stealing if you can execute. Teams that give up 4th and 15 deserve to lose.

 

[HungryLion]

I’ll say it again just because this suggestion kind of riles me up.

The NFL already has a ton of close games that are competitive and within reach, until the final minutes, WITHOUT the need for an onside kick to even happen.

There is no need for the NFL to change rules to prevent blowouts or find ways to make games even closer/competitive. NFL games are already competitive enough, in my opinion. Without enabling another scenario for the scoring team to get the ball back immediately.

There’s nothing wrong with some games being out of reach with 5 minutes to go. It happens in every sport. Blowouts happen. It’s not really a big deal.

Actually, I kind of like the fact that onside kicks are harder now than they were before. Getting the ball back by onside kicking SHOULD be incredibly hard to convert. Furthermore, give kickers and special teams coaches another few years to practice and figure things out with the current rules and you may see them develop ways to bring the conversion rate a bit higher than it was last year.

IMO. Creating this new rule is just looking for a way to fix one “problem” which isn’t really a problem anyway, IMO. But then is going to cause it’s own set of problems.