Just for the heck of it, I looked up their preseason predictions for us this season:
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Dallas Cowboys 2007 NFL Projection:
The Cowboys enter 2007 with a new head coach in Wade Phillips, who takes over a Cowboys team that made the playoffs, only to lose on a hold gone wrong in Seattle.
Fans in Dallas are understandably excited to see what Tony Romo can do in a full season with the Cowboys. He certainly threw for a ton of yards in only a partial season.
However, we're not quite ready to proclaim Tony Romo as the next Tom Brady. Follow the logic... When Romo threw 5 TD's Thanksgiving versus Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers (3-7) at the time were playing their 3rd game in eleven days, and were clearly exhausted, had nothing to play for, and arguably mailed it in.
If you factor that game out, Romo threw 14 TD's and 13 INT's in his other appearances playing against teams with a combined record of (82-94). That's a winning percentage of .466, equating to an average opponent record of (7-8-1)... Not exactly the strongest slate of games.
Granted, you can only play against the teams on your schedule.
So then, how good is Romo?
Here's one proposed way of measuring... Of the six defenses in the league that held teams to under 300 points in 2006, the Cowboys will play four of them in 2007, including three in their first six games as follows;
@Miami
@Chicago
New England
Clearly if Romo puts up big numbers in these games, the Cowboys should be a force to be reckoned with all season long. And accordingly blow our prediction out of the water.
However, since we feel Romo is still a little "untested" based on the above strength of schedule analysis, it's hard to pencil them in for double digit wins.
To compare, the 2005 Cowboys with Drew Bledsoe faced 5 teams that ended up holding teams to under 300 points that season, going (2-3) in those games, and very nearly winning them all, if not for 3 short missed field goals.
Objectively, consider what the Cowboys were paying Bledsoe compared to what they're going to have to pay Romo. To determine if the Cowboys are really better off with the younger Romo, keep your eyes on the 3 games mentioned above to see how Romo plays against those defenses.
As for the rest of the Dallas squad, the Cowboys' offense is of course loaded with talent and experience, and should score plenty of points in most games.
It's the defensive unit that really needs to step up in 2007. One way to do so would be to surrender fewer long TD passes, especially in key situations; something that has crippled the Cowboys during the last two seasons.
Overall we're penciling in the Cowboys for a (9-7) record in 2007, mostly due to uncertainty about how Romo will perform against several stronger defenses compared to last season. If Romo plays as well as he did last season, but against this schedule, then there's tons of upside to these predictions. Likewise if the Cowboys' pass defense improves, these projections could also be blown out of the water.
Week Date
Opponent
Dallas Cowboys 2007 NFL Predictions
Week 1 Sep 9 N.Y. Giants Win Projected
Week 2 Sep 16 @Miami Loss Projected
Week 3 Sep 23 @Chicago Loss Projected
Week 4 Sep 30 St. Louis Win Projected
Week 5 Oct 8 @Buffalo Win Projected
Week 6 Oct 14 New England Loss Projected
Week 7 Oct 21 Minnesota Win Projected
Week 8 Oct 28 BYE Projected Record 4-3
Week 9 Nov 4 @Philadelphia Loss Projected
Week 10 Nov 11 @N.Y. Giants Loss Projected
Week 11 Nov 18 Washington Win Projected
Week 12 Nov 22 N.Y. Jets Win Projected
Week 13 Nov 29 Green Bay Win Projected
Week 14 Dec 9 @Detroit Win Projected
Week 15 Dec 16 Philadelphia Win Projected
Week 16 Dec 22 @Carolina Loss Projected
Week 17 Dec 30 @Washington Loss Projected
