NFL History: Keeping a HC in his 5th season on last yr of his contract is not smart

Jake

Jake

Beyond tired of Jerry
Messages
36,067
Reaction score
84,351
Bobhaze said:
NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:
  1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
  2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
  3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)
So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.
Click to expand...
We just got another reminder of why this is a bad idea today (good post, Bob). Now he has to fill a key role on his staff with the whole world knowing there's a good chance the Cowboys clean house in 2025. How many guys who already have jobs elsewhere are going to be knocking on his door?

Ol' Jerry's boxed his team into a corner, while expecting a magical run in 2024. I think we know this won't end as he hopes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top