NFL History: Keeping a HC in his 5th season on last yr of his contract is not smart

[Cowboys5217]

"Hey, this guy over here successfully played Russian Roulette. Go ahead an play it yourself. It's safe."

 

[blueblood70]

Belichick....

Right I was about to say how is Bill Belichick not on there..19 years 6 sb wins same team LOL bet more are left off but IDC we can find stats and narratives to fit a situation but doesn't mean it can't happen with MM..

I mean BOB , doesnt it make more sense to say not many if not any at all had a HC with a SB win do it with another team? So I guess no Super Bowl winning head coaches should ever be hired because they can't win a Super Bowl so you might as well pass up on all great coaches on their second or next teams because it shows in the stats that they cannot win a Super Bowl with a different team...hmmm

lets keep these narratives coming..lol

 

[blueblood70]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

Right I was about to say how is Bill Belichick not on there..19 years 6 sb wins same team LOL bet more are left off but IDC we can find stats and narratives to fit a situation but doesn't mean it can't happen with MM..

I mean BOB , doesnt it make more sense to say not many if not any at all had a HC with a SB win do it with another team? So I guess no Super Bowl winning head coaches should ever be hired because they can't win a Super Bowl so you might as well pass up on all great coaches on their second or next teams because it shows in the stats that they cannot win a Super Bowl with a different team...hmmm

lets keep these narratives coming..lol

 

[blueblood70]

Incorrect. Belichick won his first SB with the pats in his second season with them. Sure he won a bunch after that but history says almost all HCs need to win a SB within their first 4 SBs with that team.

You must not have read I did include Andy Reid in the OP.

too weird, its an oddity, and IMHO doesn't apply.

 

[MikeT22]

Jerry waste seasons all the time .
How else do you explain 9.5 years of Garrett?

Or any season with Campo or Wade.

 

[Diehardblues]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

Well done sir . Great info and you’re spot on as usual.

Unfortunately we can’t really take Jethro serious . He’s just promoting what he wants everyone to perceive . It doesn’t really matter if if he believes it or not.

We should all be very skeptical. And should have been for years now . We have to evaluate this organization differently. Their top priorities are not aligned with ours.

We are in pursuit of winning a championship . They just promote that image in order to stay in place .

I’ll always retain hope our fanbase will rise up and make him step down or sell out but can’t see that happening. And why I waved my white flag years ago. I have no hope he’s going to change his ways and have lowered my expectations with apathetic attitudes.

Keep the good fight going. I’ll always be around to support your efforts. I was bashed years ago in these forums and still are on occasion for my outspoken analysis and keen insights on Jethro Jone$.

 

[Sydla]

Right I was about to say how is Bill Belichick not on there..19 years 6 sb wins same team LOL bet more are left off but IDC we can find stats and narratives to fit a situation but doesn't mean it can't happen with MM..

I mean BOB , doesnt it make more sense to say not many if not any at all had a HC with a SB win do it with another team? So I guess no Super Bowl winning head coaches should ever be hired because they can't win a Super Bowl so you might as well pass up on all great coaches on their second or next teams because it shows in the stats that they cannot win a Super Bowl with a different team...hmmm

lets keep these narratives coming..lol

With regards to your 2nd point, that's an interesting topic. I think the answer is zero have done it. A few have coached in SBs for one team and then won with another team - Dick Vermeil is one (Eagles SB, won with Rams), Reid is another (Eagles SB, won with Chiefs). Parcells won a SB with NYG and then went back to the SB with NE. Mike Holmgren won a SB in GB and went back but lost with Seattle. Don Shula went with the Colts, lost and then won with the Dolphins.

Dan Reeves went to SBs with two different teams and lost both (Denver, Atlanta). John Fox did that as well with the Panthers and then the Broncos.

 

[Diehardblues]

No team had won a Super Bowl after losing the first 2 games of the season until the 93 Cowboys...

Silly stats.

And no team had won a SB with a league leading RB until Emmitt and Cowboys in 92.

All of these stats become talking points to support a view or opinion.

Obviously it doesn’t mean it’s not possible as there are several exceptions which Bobhaze included. But there’s enough data out there to present as such.

Take it as you will…and your welcome to provide data that supports your opinion.

 

[blueblood70]

“No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Here we are in 2023, it's never happened,” Payton told Mike Klis of 9News. Don Shula, Parcells, Dick Vermeil, Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid won a Super Bowl with one team and lost a Super Bowl with another. Dan Reeves lost Super Bowls with two teams.Feb 6, 2023

so Mr. Bob this is even more of a rarity and NO ,not ONE SB winning coach should ever be rehired in the NFL...so we should have never hired Parcells or Mcarthy or even have thought of S.Peyton(some here wanted up to trade 2 1sts and Belichick(many wanted him over MM this year) because history and stats say dont do it?? that playing the odds but OTHER NFL FO/GMs hire ex SB winning coaches'...not just jerry,

so stay away from winners because the odds are against them winning anther SB..hmmm

so denver, jags and others are in trouble they should have hired losers to have shot ..lol

 

[Bobhaze]

Right I was about to say how is Bill Belichick not on there..19 years 6 sb wins same team LOL bet more are left off but IDC we can find stats and narratives to fit a situation but doesn't mean it can't happen with MM..

I mean BOB , doesnt it make more sense to say not many if not any at all had a HC with a SB win do it with another team? So I guess no Super Bowl winning head coaches should ever be hired because they can't win a Super Bowl so you might as well pass up on all great coaches on their second or next teams because it shows in the stats that they cannot win a Super Bowl with a different team...hmmm

lets keep these narratives coming..lol

Yes, but Belichick won his first SB with the pats in year 2. So back to if a HC is going to win a SB, it needs to happen in the first 4 years. Unless you’re Andy Reid, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, or John Madden.

(First line in the OP is the premise: “NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team.”)

Not saying it can NEVER happen again. I’m just saying history says it’s unlikely. I would love to be wrong on this.

 

[Diehardblues]

With regards to your 2nd point, that's an interesting topic. I think the answer is zero have done it. A few have coached in SBs for one team and then won with another team - Dick Vermeil is one (Eagles SB, won with Rams), Reid is another (Eagles SB, won with Chiefs). Parcells won a SB with NYG and then went back to the SB with NE. Mike Holmgren won a SB in GB and went back but lost with Seattle. Don Shula went with the Colts, lost and then won with the Dolphins.

Dan Reeves went to SBs with two different teams and lost both (Denver, Atlanta). John Fox did that as well with the Panthers and then the Broncos.

Correct . No HC has won a SB with 2 different teams . But as you provided some of the names which have taken 2 different teams to a SB.

But as long as this stat remains it will continue to be a talking point to support such a narrative.

 

[blueblood70]

Yes, but Belichick won his first SB with the pats in year 2. So back to if a HC is going to win a SB, it needs to happen in the first 4 years. Unless you’re Andy Reid, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, or John Madden.

Not saying I can NEVER happen again. I’m just saying history says it’s unlikely. I would love to wrong on this.

“No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Here we are in 2023, it's never happened,” Payton told Mike Klis of 9News. Don Shula, Parcells, Dick Vermeil, Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid won a Super Bowl with one team and lost a Super Bowl with another. Dan Reeves lost Super Bowls with two teams.Feb 6, 2023

so Mr. Bob this is even more of a rarity and NO ,not ONE SB winning coach should ever be rehired in the NFL...so we should have never hired Parcells or Mcarthy or even have thought of S.Peyton(some here wanted up to trade 2 1sts and Belichick(many wanted him over MM this year) because history and stats say dont do it?? that playing the odds but OTHER NFL FO/GMs hire ex SB winning coaches'...not just jerry,

so stay away from winners because the odds are against them winning anther SB..hmmm

I guess Miami should have never hired post Dallas Jimmy he never had a shot..

so Denver, jags and others are in trouble they should have hired losers to have shot ..lol

 

[Bobhaze]

“No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Here we are in 2023, it's never happened,” Payton told Mike Klis of 9News. Don Shula, Parcells, Dick Vermeil, Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid won a Super Bowl with one team and lost a Super Bowl with another. Dan Reeves lost Super Bowls with two teams.Feb 6, 2023

so Mr. Bob this is even more of a rarity and NO ,not ONE SB winning coach should ever be rehired in the NFL...so we should have never hired Parcells or Mcarthy or even have thought of S.Peyton(some here wanted up to trade 2 1sts and Belichick(many wanted him over MM this year) because history and stats say dont do it?? that playing the odds but OTHER NFL FO/GMs hire ex SB winning coaches'...not just jerry,

so stay away from winners because the odds are against them winning anther SB..hmmm

I guess Miami should have never hired post Dallas Jimmy he never had a shot..

so Denver, jags and others are in trouble they should have hired losers to have shot ..lol

Some coach someday will break that streak. So again, we can never say never. But history says it’s unlikely. We may not like history but it is what it is.

 

[Sydla]

“No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Here we are in 2023, it's never happened,” Payton told Mike Klis of 9News. Don Shula, Parcells, Dick Vermeil, Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid won a Super Bowl with one team and lost a Super Bowl with another. Dan Reeves lost Super Bowls with two teams.Feb 6, 2023

so Mr. Bob this is even more of a rarity and NO ,not ONE SB winning coach should ever be rehired in the NFL...so we should have never hired Parcells or Mcarthy or even have thought of S.Peyton(some here wanted up to trade 2 1sts and Belichick(many wanted him over MM this year) because history and stats say dont do it?? that playing the odds but OTHER NFL FO/GMs hire ex SB winning coaches'...not just jerry,

so stay away from winners because the odds are against them winning anther SB..hmmm

so denver, jags and others are in trouble they should have hired losers to have shot ..lol

Frankly, I wasn't a fan of McCarthy's hiring to begin with. He was a retread plucked off the couch after crashing out in GB and with limited options in terms of teams wanting him to be a HC.

 

[Ozymandias]

SMH...all of the evidence shows us that this is going to be a LONG tough year. #1 schedule, lame duck coach, and a QB who's terrified of big games.


Then you'll have cats on here telling me to go find another team to root for because a good number of us, can see the big picture. None of this is smart, but we have our trusty GM who knows so much football and HE says we should "run it back"


It's truly frustrating being a fan of this team. It's not Cleveland Browns level bad, but for the teams we've had, the successful regular seasons, and the collapses in the playoff, it isn't far off.


IDK what to think. McCarthy isn't a "bad" coach, but he isn't "great" either. Terrible place to be in. Next season (just as this and last season) will be judged with playoff victories. 12-5 is great for Big Mike but we need more. Tough to think it will come in a lame duck 5th year.

Then what? Start over? Smh

 

[Bobhaze]

The lame duck thing/uncertainty thing would typically be a problem, but only in the regard that the players may not respect the current coaching as being the highest authority….but we have that problem every season regardless.

The Jerry factor is much tougher to overcome than the lame duck issue.

And he makes it even worse by entertaining the question if he could work with Belichick instead of saying “we have a coach.”

Great point about the players knowing the HC is not the final authority. It is an inherent problem every single year.

 

[blueblood70]

Some coach someday will break that streak. So again, we can never say never. But history says it’s unlikely. We may not like history but it is what it is.

look man, i'm having some fun with this, i'm being facetious for the most part,

However, my point should also show that there's very little Great HC candidates to go around, like elite QB types and sometimes you have to pick the best from the limited pool and not worry about stats and history...

Super bowls are just hard to get to and win. they are in fact the common goal that are nearly never reached by most teams in the nfl..these droughts and stats you call history are the norm...its why you have to appreciate say Jerry 3 SB titles even if its been 28years since they got one. its part of the process IMO i call them cycles. Our cycles will return someday, and I bet it wont be the longest drought we've witnessed ie KC 51 years, eagles 60years, others as long or longer waiting on one or #2... we are waiting on 6.

this is why fans and media talk more about the AFC/NFC CG or at least getting to the super bowls winning one.., so that means our goal is moved to let's get to an NFC championship game. Then we can talk about these oddities in history about a SB win...

maybe MM can break the streak of the 2nd round failures and get to the NFCCG that's a big step and start. Thats lot for us impatient and disappointed fans.

 

[Diehardblues]

History does provide that SB winning HC’s can turn other franchises around taking them to playoffs, championship games and Super Bowls.

And it’s pretty impressive list of HC’s. The fact none have ever won a SB with another team is more of a talking point than serving as a deterrent to hire one .

 

[Diehardblues]

Bobhaze coaching stats reveal that the odds are beginning to stack against us regardless whether you like the narrative or not .

 

[Staubacher]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

McCarthy definitely isn't taking them to the promised land this coming season. The team had a perfect storm this past season and things were set up for postseason success in a way they won't be again for a long time. He's a lame duck