NFL History: Keeping a HC in his 5th season on last yr of his contract is not smart

[Bobhaze]

SMH...all of the evidence shows us that this is going to be a LONG tough year. #1 schedule, lame duck coach, and a QB who's terrified of big games.


Then you'll have cats on here telling me to go find another team to root for because a good number of us, can see the big picture. None of this is smart, but we have our trusty GM who knows so much football and HE says we should "run it back"


It's truly frustrating being a fan of this team. It's not Cleveland Browns level bad, but for the teams we've had, the successful regular seasons, and the collapses in the playoff, it isn't far off.


IDK what to think. McCarthy isn't a "bad" coach, but he isn't "great" either. Terrible place to be in. Next season (just as this and last season) will be judged with playoff victories. 12-5 is great for Big Mike but we need more. Tough to think it will come in a lame duck 5th year.

Then what? Start over? Smh

Never let anyone on here make you feel that your opinions aren’t valid. This forum is all about people having all manner of opinions about the Cowboys. As long as we respect each other and stay within the rules here, it’s all good! Glad you’re here! Keep posting.

 

[ArtClink]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

Great post but you are trying to introduce logic into the Jones Model equation lol.

"How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?"

Answer: None of the players ever reported to or were accountable to Big Mac. They all report directly to the fuhrer himself. That is one of many fundamental flaws of the Jones Model, having a hc with no power to hire and fire. If a player is "cool with Jerry", then they don't have to answer to Big Mac or anyone else.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

MM won his SB in Green Bay in his 5th year as HC.

 

[CTcowboy203]

The players in the locker room for the most part from what I’ve seen by those who’ve spoken out have all wanted McCarthy back- so I don’t worry about that one bit. I don’t worry about this with McCarthy since I think he’s a good coach and will have them prepared. The question is whether he’s good enough to get us over the hump.

I also think it’s a bit disingenuous to bring up garrets last lame duck year and not mention that in his previous lame duck year he went 12-4 and to the divisional round which brought on the new extension

 

[Philmonroe]

No team had won a Super Bowl after losing the first 2 games of the season until the 93 Cowboys...

Silly stats.

It seems you’re one of them people that don’t want to be wrong but just take your L. It isn’t that important esp online to be clawing for excuses.

 

[Philmonroe]

Right I was about to say how is Bill Belichick not on there..19 years 6 sb wins same team LOL bet more are left off but IDC we can find stats and narratives to fit a situation but doesn't mean it can't happen with MM..

I mean BOB , doesnt it make more sense to say not many if not any at all had a HC with a SB win do it with another team? So I guess no Super Bowl winning head coaches should ever be hired because they can't win a Super Bowl so you might as well pass up on all great coaches on their second or next teams because it shows in the stats that they cannot win a Super Bowl with a different team...hmmm

lets keep these narratives coming..lol

RIF my friend RIF smh.

 

[EJK24]

Jerry waste seasons all the time .
How else do you explain 9.5 years of Garrett?

Unfortunately, you're absolutely right.

 

[nobody]

I think it's the other statistic that stay Jerry's hands. Only two Head Coaches in NFL history has won a SB in their first year with a team. I think Jerry knows he doesn't have much time left and is too willfully stubborn to put the good of the team first.

(Those two coaches are: Don McCafferty with the Baltimore Colts in 1971, and George Seifert with the 49ers in 1990.)

 

[nalam]

maybe one day we'll find the right coach

It’s not the right coach, it’s the coach Jerry ( the GM , the coach , the doctor , the psychologist, the all in all) can order around , that has been the criteria .

 

[Bobhaze]

MM won his SB in Green Bay in his 5th year as HC.

I looked it up and you’re right. Thank you for the correction.

So there have been 6 HCs in the last 6 decades who have won a SB after 4 years with a team. Add Big Mac to the names of Andy Reid, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Tom Landry.

 

[john van brocklin]

Unfortunately, you're absolutely right.

Sadly, I am...

 

[DogFace]

I’ve noticed that also. Why is that?

Some of it is fashion and haircuts etc. but a lot more imo is nutrition, exercise, less major stress like food insecurity, mental health ancte is taken seriously, and better medical treatment overall.

 

[Zekeats]

but were right around the rim

 

[Cowfan75Lives]

Jerry thinks it's more polite to let a loser coach finish out his contract rather than do what needs to be done. He's about to waste another season over it. Thanks, Jerry! Sorry I couldn't get ya one of those Super Bowls, but we were on the rim!

 

[khiladi]

Agreed. But he still didn't win until Mahomes came along.

No doubt, but he could have won with any great QB. We all know it’s ultimately a blend of a great coach and great QB to become a dynasty.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

its about money. if jerry let McCarthy go, then all the other coaches go out and he is on the hook for their salaries. on top of that he has an excuse. we won the NFCE. we went to playoffs. third straight 12-5 season. no reason to disrupt and rebuild. he know he has no choice but to give Dak a contract or keep him, so a new coach with render that useless. so yes, this is a disaster waiting to happen. it will fall apart. just like it did in Garrett's last lame duck year.

 

[ArtClink]

My favorite stat:

Super Bowl Wins:

Jerry: 3
Jimmy: 3
Landry: 2

Fixed that for you.

 

[Captain-Crash]

Smart and the Dallas Cowboys can't be in the same sentence.

 

[Cowboys5217]

It's truly frustrating being a fan of this team. It's not Cleveland Browns level bad, but for the teams we've had, the successful regular seasons, and the collapses in the playoff, it isn't far off.

It used to not be Detroit Lions level bad, but not anymore. How much longer can we point to the Browns to feel better? My guess is they make a conference title game in the near future. I don't see Dallas ever getting back there until the most unchangeable thing about the Cowboys changes.

 

[Kwyn]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

Didn’t John Harbaugh win in his 5th season? Did I miss that?

I see you added McCarthy as well.

For those on the watch for current coaches in year five without a SB win.

McDermott is in year 7
Lafleur is in year 6
Zac Taylor is in year 6
Stefanski is in year 5