*sigh*
So for starters, his history will be held against him. Next, Murray is already getting the credit for this team surpassing 8-8, although Murray probably won't be the MVP either. Next, QBs usually win this award, and there's a couple that have had pretty good seasons and their teams have played fairly well.
I mean, I think a string of things would have to happen for this to even possibly happen. The Cowboys would have to end up the #2 seed. I know that seems unfair, but life is unfair, so deal with that. Next, he'd need a 25/30, 400 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT kind of a performance. Next, you need Murray to sit out, or do next to nothing so it won't get held against Romo. After that, you need Rodgers AND Brady to have awful week 17 performances that result in losses. I'm talking like no TD passes, 2-3 picks, fumbles lost, etc. It wouldn't hurt if J.J. Watt gets owned and the Texans lose too.
Even with all that going on, I think Romo wouldn't get it, but that would be his best bet. BTW, there's a QB in Seattle that some folks think deserve to be MVP too, so you might have to hope the chatter about that remains minimal, because it could pick up some steam in a hurry with the way they've been playing lately.