Okay, Odds On Running the Table

[cowboys2233]

We're favored in all of our games as well.

We're favored against the Giants at their place? What kind of random, future odds site have you found stating that?

 

[DFWJC]

We're favored against the Giants at their place? What kind of random, future odds site have you found stating that?

As of today, no way we are favored in that game.

 

[dboy214]

Well, I'll disagree with that. I think Tampa Bay is the most overrated team still in the playoff hunt (unless you still believe Buffalo is a potential playoff team). But I hope the players are thinking the way you're thinking. Make that last game irrelevant, because we want no part of going into NY having to win to make the playoffs. And just as importantly, if we do win the division prior to that last game, I firmly believe we'll be locked into the #4 seed and can use that week as a bye week, get some players rested up, and dominate the following week.

yup. we need to get to 10 wins before that final game.

 

[cowboys2233]

yup. we need to get to 10 wins before that final game.

As long as one of those wins is against the Giants at our place, then we should be good.

 

[TheCount]

I think the chances we go undefeated the rest of the season are somewhere between slim and none, especially with 3 division games left.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

I predicted between 7-9 victories with 10 being a slim possibility IF everything played in their favor....

9 and 10 seem more realistic.

 

[TNCowboy]

The Cowboys don't have to win 8 in a row to win out. They only have to win 6.

The odds of the result of consecutive flips of a fair coin coming up heads, heads, heads are 7:1 against before the first flip, but 1:1 if the first two flips have already been observed to be heads.

No, they have to win 8 in a row. That there are 6 games left is only part of the equation. It's not a coin flip if the coin is resting on its laurels because of what happened on the previous flip.

 

[DFWJC]

I'll take a crack at the odds

Win all 6: 5% chance
Win 5 or more: 17%
Win 4 or more: 60%
Win 3 or more: 70%
Win 2 or more 90%
Win 1 or more 99%

 

[sonnyboy]

They will be favored in all of those games. Every one. We won't. The Saints are one game ahead of us. If you believe we're going to catch the Saints, you're using something other than logic to come to that conclusion.

I was just about to say the same thing about your last post.

The Saints are more erratic than we are! They were crushed by the Rams the week after we kicked their ***. And you think that team is winning out?

I think we may win out, but I know the Saints aren't.

Here's the skinny on if and how we can win out. Beyond on own ability to play consistent and stay healthy, it really comes down to status and motivation of each upcoming opponent.

I love our chances provided the following happen and I'm more confident they will then won't.......

Obviously winning the next two is neccessary.

The Giants lose the next 2 and come into Arlington on a 4 game losing streak free fall mode.

The Bucs are eliminated from the playoffs the week before our game. (very likely) Teams generally suck the week after they get elminated.

The Eagles lose to the Pats and get eliminated the week before we play them (also likley).

The Giants get eliminated from wildcard possibilities in week 15 or 16. (Very possible)

See what happened here? Our last three opponents got eliminated from the playoffs the week before we played them. Very advantageous and the kind of thing that happens to teams who end the season on a long winning streak.

Now back to the Saints, Niners and playoff seeding.

I guarantee you we will have a shot at no less than the #3 seed if we get to 11-4. (BTW- We would have the tie breaker over the Saints and get the #3 seed at 12-4 or 11-5 if we finish tied). And I guarantee you we will play for that in week 17. No one gets a rest.

I'd say their is a decent shot the Niners finish 12-4. They travel to Baltimore Thursday night and have a home game against the Steelers. The Steelers will be in dire need of that win and have just the right talent mix to clean SF's clock.

The Niners will be favored in the other 4 games for sure, but the Rams and Seattle are playing better and maybe one of them give us a Christmas present.

 

[kmd24]

No, they have to win 8 in a row. That there are 6 games left is only part of the equation. It's not a coin flip if the coin is resting on its laurels because of what happened on the previous flip.

Completely valid point of view, but that would have to be a strong dependency function to make up for the probabilistic difference gained by already winning two of the eight games.

 

[Hostile]

If you put the odds at 6 to 1 against, then that means 1 in 7 chance to pull it off. If you put the chance of pulling it off at 1 in 6, then the odds are 5 to 1 against.

Odds is stated as "(ways of succeeding) to (ways of failing)" or "(ways of failing) to (ways of succeeding) against." Often the word "to" is replaced by a colon (5:1 or 6:1).

Pedantry, just another free service I offer.

In all seriousness, I like to educate people on this difference because it can be a costly mistake if you get it wrong in a betting situation. Seen it too many times.

I told you I was no good at math man. You keep forgetting.

Thanks.

 

[Cowboysfan570]

Not good I think. Say 12-1 odds? We probably drop 1-2 over that stretch, but all of the remaining games are winnable.

The only ones that really concern me are the remaining Eagles game and Giants at home. I'm not sold on the Dolphins of the Bucs, the Cards are the Cards, and we seem to play the Giants better on the road.

If we can beat the Giants in our house then I think our odds go up dramatically.

 

[cowboys2233]

If we can beat the Giants in our house then I think our odds go up dramatically.

You think our odds of running the table go up dramatically if we beat the Giants at home, clinch the division and pull all of our starters in week 17 as a result?

Yup, nothing like fielding a team of third-stringers with nothing to play for -- it practically ensures victory.

 

[sonnyboy]

You think our odds of running the table go up dramatically if we beat the Giants at home, clinch the division and pull all of our starters in week 17 as a result?

Yup, nothing like fielding a team of third-stringers with nothing to play for -- it practically ensures victory.

Going 11-4 and having nothing to play for week 17 is the least likely scenario.

 

[Cowboysfan570]

You think our odds of running the table go up dramatically if we beat the Giants at home, clinch the division and pull all of our starters in week 17 as a result?

Yup, nothing like fielding a team of third-stringers with nothing to play for -- it practically ensures victory.

That is assuming there is no advantage to winning in week 17, which is a rather large assumption to make with 6 games left, 2 division leaders within striking distance if they drop 1-2 games, and the wildcard hunt still very much a factor.

In case you weren't aware, both of the NFC North teams in the wildcard hunt are having some trouble right now. It's entirely possible that the Giants are still alive up to week 17.

 

[Risen Star]

The Cowboys haven't won 8 games in a row in 20 years, and that team was lightyears better than this one.

Less than 1%.

Seconded.

I don't want to say no chance. But next to no chance.

 

[Zman5]

After watching our team past weekend, I feel we are not consistent enough to win out.

I think we win 4 more games. I think we beat Miami, AZ, Giants at home and the Eagles.

 

[BourbonBalz]

I was just about to say the same thing about your last post.

The Saints are more erratic than we are! They were crushed by the Rams the week after we kicked their ***. And you think that team is winning out?

I think we may win out, but I know the Saints aren't.

Here's the skinny on if and how we can win out. Beyond on own ability to play consistent and stay healthy, it really comes down to status and motivation of each upcoming opponent.

I love our chances provided the following happen and I'm more confident they will then won't.......

Obviously winning the next two is neccessary.

The Giants lose the next 2 and come into Arlington on a 4 game losing streak free fall mode.

The Bucs are eliminated from the playoffs the week before our game. (very likely) Teams generally suck the week after they get elminated.

The Eagles lose to the Pats and get eliminated the week before we play them (also likley).

The Giants get eliminated from wildcard possibilities in week 15 or 16. (Very possible)

See what happened here? Our last three opponents got eliminated from the playoffs the week before we played them. Very advantageous and the kind of thing that happens to teams who end the season on a long winning streak.

Now back to the Saints, Niners and playoff seeding.

I guarantee you we will have a shot at no less than the #3 seed if we get to 11-4. (BTW- We would have the tie breaker over the Saints and get the #3 seed at 12-4 or 11-5 if we finish tied). And I guarantee you we will play for that in week 17. No one gets a rest.

I'd say their is a decent shot the Niners finish 12-4. They travel to Baltimore Thursday night and have a home game against the Steelers. The Steelers will be in dire need of that win and have just the right talent mix to clean SF's clock.

The Niners will be favored in the other 4 games for sure, but the Rams and Seattle are playing better and maybe one of them give us a Christmas present.

The Eagles play the Patriots this coming weekend. We don't play them for several more weeks. Thus, we won't be playing the the week following their possible loss to the Pats.

 

[Fmart322]

Out of curiosity, what do you think our odds are of running the table and finished 12-4? Now, before anyone flies off the handle, I am not predicting this. I want you to stop, look at each game and think about whether it is winnable or not, and then make an assumption of odds based upon your thoughts.

I will go first.

vs. Dolphins
@ Cardinals
vs. Giants
@ Buccaneers
vs. Eagles
@ Giants

Okay, I predicted we would finish 11-5 and I am sticking with this prediction. The losable game amongst these to me is the finale. I say this despite the fact we have not beaten the Giants in our new house. I believe we will this year. I have a feeling the Giants will be reeling when we get to that game. Their next couple are brutal and their last 2 have been heartbreaking.

I therefore put the odds at 6 to 1. Or, one chance in 6 to pull it off. Not good odds, but fun to think about.

I think those odds would be pretty high.
Check this site out.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

 

[sonnyboy]

The Eagles play the Patriots this coming weekend. We don't play them for several more weeks. Thus, we won't be playing the the week following their possible loss to the Pats.

Yes I know this. They hopefully get that critical 7th loss this weekend. But that won't eliminate them. 3-4 more weeks will need to pass, provided they keep winning as I suspect they will, until they are eliminated.