Okay, Odds On Running the Table

[SC Cowboyfan]

I predicted (IIRC) 10-6 or 11-5. I think 10-6 is the more likely scenario,but we still win the division due to Giants losing 3 more games including the one against us in Cowboys Stadium. I think we lose in NY and possible @ TB.

If we dont win that Tampa game, it'll be a LONG drive back to carolina for me and my nephew......

 

[daschoo]

odds for the phins game are 1/3. at arizona i'd imagine they'd be around 1/2, home to giants we'll say pretty close to evens, at the bucs lets say 1/2 again. 5/4 against the eagles as they'll probably be favourites due to the whole "dream team" nonsense. in new york i'd guess it'll be something like 3/2.
thats my rough guess at the odds for each game which would result in odds of 33.75/1
add both numbers in the first selection then divide by the number on the right then multiply by the sum of the second selection and divide by the number on the right then repeat as follows
1/3 1/2 1/1 1/2 5/4 3/2
so 1 plus 3 is 4, divided by 3 = 1.333333333333 times 3 divided by 2 times 2 divided by 1 times 3 divided by 2 times 9 divided by 4 times 5 divided by 2 equals 33.75 pounds/dollars/whatever currency winnings per unit of currency staked.

 

[kmd24]

I therefore put the odds at 6 to 1. Or, one chance in 6 to pull it off. Not good odds, but fun to think about.

If you put the odds at 6 to 1 against, then that means 1 in 7 chance to pull it off. If you put the chance of pulling it off at 1 in 6, then the odds are 5 to 1 against.

Odds is stated as "(ways of succeeding) to (ways of failing)" or "(ways of failing) to (ways of succeeding) against." Often the word "to" is replaced by a colon (5:1 or 6:1).

Pedantry, just another free service I offer.

In all seriousness, I like to educate people on this difference because it can be a costly mistake if you get it wrong in a betting situation. Seen it too many times.

 

[Doomsday]

The Cowboys haven't won 8 games in a row in 20 years, and that team was lightyears better than this one.

Less than 1%.

So you are saying there is a chance? :laugh2:

 

[kmd24]

The Cowboys haven't won 8 games in a row in 20 years, and that team was lightyears better than this one.

Less than 1%.

The Cowboys don't have to win 8 in a row to win out. They only have to win 6.

The odds of the result of consecutive flips of a fair coin coming up heads, heads, heads are 7:1 against before the first flip, but 1:1 if the first two flips have already been observed to be heads.

 

[dboy214]

10-6

we'll have one more washington type game.

i think it comes vs tampa bay.

that's a tough, physical team.

whatever happens, i just hope everything is settled by that final game.

imagine going into new york with a playoff spot on the line.

 

[Doomsday101]

Listening to a few players on the team I like their view.

Robinson comment: We are looking to go 1-0 this coming game.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

I think it's 50/50. I think we lose one more game, but definitely wouldn't be shocked if we won out.

 

[DFWJC]

I said 10-6 originally, with hopes for 11-5. I'll stay there.

I think ALL remaining games are losable--with some much less likely than others. All we have to do is look at the NFL this year and see about a dozen very good good examples of "and given Sunday". Three (some would say four) remaining games are almost as losable as they are winnable. Say we go 2-1 in those.

If we go 10-6 and have at least 1 win vs the Giants, I think that wins the division for us.
And 11-5 is doable and would of course lock it down!

 

[CalCBFan]

I'm not very optimistic about the December schedule for this team. ANdy Reid has already schooled Ryan once this year, and I will not be suprised if he does it again. And this team has shown a tendency to collapse in December. I'm not sure, but isn't Romo's December record as bad as his November record is good? I wish I could be more positive, but this team hasn't really earned my confidence in the last 15 years...

 

[cowboys2233]

Out of curiosity, what do you think our odds are of running the table and finished 12-4? Now, before anyone flies off the handle, I am not predicting this. I want you to stop, look at each game and think about whether it is winnable or not, and then make an assumption of odds based upon your thoughts.

No chance. Not because we don't have the ability, but it simply won't be necessary. I believe we're going to win the division prior to the final game. I also believe there is no chance we can do any better than the #4 seed. So, week 17 will be a bye week for us. We'll probably get thoroughly pummeled by the Giants, who will likely be very much in the wildcard hunt. But I'm going to go a slightly different route than most, starting with Thursday. I believe we're going to LOSE that game. Dunno, there is something weird about playing the Dolphins. I still have images in my head of the last time we met them. They absolutely dominated us, with Chris Chambers looking like the next coming of Jerry Rice. Just one of those strange, non-conference games.

vs. Dolphins - Lose
@ Cardinals - Win
vs. Giants - Win
@ Buccaneers - Win
vs. Eagles - Win
@ Giants - Lose

We win the division at 10-6, Giants finish at 9-7 and Eagles finish at 8-8.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

No chance. Not because we don't have the ability, but it simply won't be necessary. I believe we're going to win the division prior to the final game. I also believe there is no chance we can do any better than the #4 seed. So, week 17 will be a bye week for us. We'll probably get thoroughly pummeled by the Giants, who will likely be very much in the wildcard hunt. But I'm going to go a slightly different route than most, starting with Thursday. I believe we're going to LOSE that game. Dunno, there is something weird about playing the Dolphins. I still have images in my head of the last time we met them. They absolutely dominated us, with Chris Chambers looking like the next coming of Jerry Rice. Just one of those strange, non-conference games.

vs. Dolphins - Lose
@ Cardinals - Win
vs. Giants - Win
@ Buccaneers - Win
vs. Eagles - Win
@ Giants - Lose

We win the division at 10-6, Giants finish at 9-7 and Eagles finish at 8-8.

We're only 1 game behind the Aints and you say we have no chance to catch them. :laugh2:

 

[cowboys2233]

10-6

we'll have one more washington type game.

i think it comes vs tampa bay.

that's a tough, physical team.

whatever happens, i just hope everything is settled by that final game.

imagine going into new york with a playoff spot on the line.

Well, I'll disagree with that. I think Tampa Bay is the most overrated team still in the playoff hunt (unless you still believe Buffalo is a potential playoff team). But I hope the players are thinking the way you're thinking. Make that last game irrelevant, because we want no part of going into NY having to win to make the playoffs. And just as importantly, if we do win the division prior to that last game, I firmly believe we'll be locked into the #4 seed and can use that week as a bye week, get some players rested up, and dominate the following week.

 

[cowboys2233]

We're only 1 game behind the Aints and you say we have no chance to catch them. :laugh2:

That is correct. Now there is a team with a real chance to run the table. Nice long bye week to rest and prepare, followed by two home games against the Giants and Detroit, followed by two road games against Tennessee and Minny and finish the year with another two home games against Atlanta and Carolina.

Stop me when any of this sounds even remotely unreasonable.

 

[pancakeman]

I'd think 15-20% chance, which, when I do the calculation, is right at the 1-in-6 odds estimated in the OP.

 

[AZ_Cowboys_Fan]

That is correct. Now there is a team with a real chance to run the table. Nice long bye week to rest and prepare, followed by two home games against the Giants and Detroit, followed by two road games against Tennessee and Minny and finish the year with another two home games against Atlanta and Carolina.

Stop me when any of this sounds even remotely unreasonable.

There's no way New Orleans is gonna win all of those games. No way. Minnesota is the easiest and if A.P. is playing even that one won't be easy.

 

[EMMITTnROY]

Put me down for 10-6 or 11-5.

 

[cowboys2233]

I'd think 15-20% chance, which, when I do the calculation, is right at the 1-in-6 odds estimated in the OP.

There is no chance. Because if we win the next five games, that sixth game will be utterly meaningless. How can anyone reasonably expect us to win a game against a divisional rival, at their place, when we have virtually nothing to play for? Think it through folks, our prior success would actually seal our fate for that last game. And I've got no problem with that, we could get the luxury of a bye week prior to the playoffs, which would be far more important if we want to make a real run at this thing.

 

[cowboys2233]

There's no way New Orleans is gonna win all of those games. No way. Minnesota is the easiest and if A.P. is playing even that one won't be easy.

They will be favored in all of those games. Every one. We won't. The Saints are one game ahead of us. If you believe we're going to catch the Saints, you're using something other than logic to come to that conclusion.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

They will be favored in all of those games. Every one. We won't. The Saints are one game ahead of us. If you believe we're going to catch the Saints, you're using something other than logic to come to that conclusion.

We're favored in all of our games as well.