One oddsmaker has Jason Garrett as ninth-most likely to be first head coach fired

[aria]

I don't think I missed your point at all. You clearly said you didn't think the results would be all that different, at all, if those guys were coaching instead of Garrett here in Dallas.

You may not realize it but in saying that, you are pretty much saying Garrett is a victim of bad circumstances whereas Reid and Tomlin, two guys you think are largely morons, have basically had ideal circumstances. When you say a guy like Reid couldn't have done a better job than Garrett, you are, in fact, cutting off a successful coach at the knees trying to chalk up his success to things other than his coaching prowess.

I never said he couldn’t, I said I wouldn’t be surprised, there is a difference. You’re not completely wrong by saying “I’m cutting off a successful coach at the knees trying to chalk up his success to things other than coaching prowess”. You seem to be refusing to acknowledge the circumstances JG was faced with which I pointed out in my original post. Some coaches benefit largely from their players and some oayers benefit largely from their coaches. In rare circumstances you have both, like the Patriots. With regard to Tomlin especially, I think the team has been successful much more due to the players they put on the field rather than Tomlin. I happen to agree with the nut Terry Bradshaw “Tomlin is just a cheerleader on the sidelines”.

I shouldn’t have called Reid and Tomlin idiots, I shiuld have said made very idiotic decisions just as JG has. Indeed, I am saying JG has largely, not solely, been a victim of unfortunate circumstances. How on earth can you say he wasn’t?

 

[LACowboysFan1]

think it's some Garrett blindness to suggest that a guy like Andy Reid, even with his flaws, couldn't have done better than one playoff win in 7 seasons if he had been hired instead of Garrett.

Any coach of the Cowboys has to deal with Jerry. I don't know that Reid could do what a lot of folks seem to think Garrett should do - tell Jerry to sit down in his box and shut the heck up, let me run the team and you just write the checks. And even if he was willing to do that, Jerry wouldn't allow it, wouldn't hire Reid, et al in the first place.

It's all speculation since Reid has not been the coach the last 7 1/2 years. What if's don't do much for me, I'd rather deal with reality...

 

[Sydla]

I never said he couldn’t, I said I wouldn’t be surprised, there is a difference. You’re not completely wrong by saying “I’m cutting off a successful coach at the knees trying to chalk up his success to things other than coaching prowess”. You seem to be refusing to acknowledge the circumstances JG was faced with which I pointed out in my original post. Some coaches benefit largely from their players and some oayers benefit largely from their coaches. In rare circumstances you have both, like the Patriots. With regard to Tomlin especially, I think the team has been successful much more due to the players they put on the field rather than Tomlin. I happen to agree with the nut Terry Bradshaw “Tomlin is just a cheerleader on the sidelines”.

I shouldn’t have called Reid and Tomlin idiots, I shiuld have said made very idiotic decisions just as JG has. Indeed, I am saying JG has largely, not solely, been a victim of unfortunate circumstances. How on earth can you say he wasn’t?

I am not refusing to acknowledge the circumstances Garrett faced. I just don't think they completely explain away why he's largely been unsuccessful. If we were talking about a 3 year tenure here, I might more buy into the theory that he's had some bad luck, some bad circumstances but he's now heading into Year 8. At some point, you can't just continue to chalk up each failure to bad circumstances. At some point, especially after 7 years, good coaches show up. He's yet to do that and with each passing year, the constant excuses for him lose their credibility IMO. So no, I don't think Garrett has "largely" been a victim of unfortunate circumstances (or more plainly, bad luck). Bad luck explains a lost game, a lost season............ but 7 years in? It becomes harder and harder to just assume that this guy just has nothing but bad luck that would be impossible for a coach to overcome.

And let's also note that along the way, he's gotten some decent breaks too. You pointed out earlier he was one Dez Bryant/missed call from the NFC Title game, but he was also one lucky call a week earlier from likely being another first round exit.

 

[aria]

Tomlin gets a "free" pass because he's shown he can coach teams to the highest level in football. That's why he gets a "pass". I simply don't understand why people try this line of reasoning to defend Garrett that ignores the fact that while another coach has made mistakes, he's also proven he can make enough good calls to get a team to the SB or conference title games, etc.

This isn't hard. Coaches that win and win a lot and have taken teams to high levels get more leeway when they make mistakes than coaches that have not. Because on one hand, you know that while making a mistake, one of those coaches has shown that he can make enough good coaching decisions (or limits his bad decisions) to get to the highest levels in the NFL and the other coach has never proven that.

And frankly, Tomlin caught a lot of flak for that decision to kick the onsides kick, even from his own fans.

Really, so if Ben goes out there and throws 3 INT’s, one with barely any time left in the 4th that leads to the other team scoring, than that is on the coach? When a guy allegedly “catches” the ball on the goal line late in the 4th during a critical playoff game but it is ruled an incompletion than that is the coaches fault? When a coach has to use Kyle Orton as the starting QB for the first time in week 17 for a “win and in” playoff game against a divisional rival than that is the coaches fault? What about Kitna? He also took two rookies to a 13-3 record....

It boggles my mind that guys like you refuse to acknowledge that some coaches are indeed “lucky” or have a better FO that gives them more talent. The roster is finally headed in the right direction but historically it was a mess. JG is also a victim of JJ and his micro managing, very few (if any) well established coaches would put up with him. If he did get fired there’s a good chance we would have to roll the dice with some youmg OC or DC and hope we strike gold or Jerrah stays out of it.

 

[Sydla]

Any coach of the Cowboys has to deal with Jerry. I don't know that Reid could do what a lot of folks seem to think Garrett should do - tell Jerry to sit down in his box and shut the heck up, let me run the team and you just write the checks. And even if he was willing to do that, Jerry wouldn't allow it, wouldn't hire Reid, et al in the first place.

It's all speculation since Reid has not been the coach the last 7 1/2 years. What if's don't do much for me, I'd rather deal with reality...

I don't think Reid would have tolerated Jones and that's why he would probably never have coached here.

But having said that, if he had, yes, I believe Andy Reid has proven to be a much better coach than Garrett and would have absolutely been a more successful coach over these 7 years than Garrett has been. He's done that now with two different teams.

 

[Diehardblues]

I don't know about "carried" JG but I do think Garrett had the little success he did have largely because he was handed a competent QB when he took over full time as HC. It's common sense. Would Garrett have been able to go 8-8 his first full three years if he had Weeden as his QB? Of course not. Note, that's not me saying Garrett did nothing. I don't think he's an awful coach, I just don't believe he's a very good one.

Using your examples, most certainly Tomlin and Reid benefitted as well from having good QBs. Tomlin isn't winning a SB with a bum at QB and Reid isn't in four straight NFC Title games with a dud at QB. But at some point, just having a good QB isn't enough. You have to be a competent coach to get where guys like Tomlin, Reid, etc. have gotten. I don't think Reid or Tomlin are elite, the best of the best, but both are very good coaches and certainly better coaches than Garrett.

Romo is a great example it’s a talent driven league . He carried a lesser team for years.

Nobody in NFL is winning championships without an Elite QB and or defense.

 

[Sydla]

Really, so if Ben goes out there and throws 3 INT’s, one with barely any time left in the 4th that leads to the other team scoring, than that is on the coach? When a guy allegedly “catches” the ball on the goal line late in the 4th during a critical playoff game but it is ruled an incompletion than that is the coaches fault? When a coach has to use Kyle Orton as the starting QB for the first time in week 17 for a “win and in” playoff game against a divisional rival than that is the coaches fault? What about Kitna? He also took two rookies to a 13-3 record....

It boggles my mind that guys like you refuse to acknowledge that some coaches are indeed “lucky” or have a better FO that gives them more talent. The roster is finally headed in the right direction but historically it was a mess. JG is also a victim of JJ and his micro managing, very few (if any) well established coaches would put up with him. If he did get fired there’s a good chance we would have to roll the dice with some youmg OC or DC and hope we strike gold or Jerrah stays out of it.

Yeah and that would explain one year. He's been here 7 years. At some point, the "bad luck" argument starts to not hold much water. It's largely impossible to explain away every single failure in Garrett's tenure as just "bad luck".

And no, I don't believe guys that have been to multiple NFC title games or a coach that has been in two SB and won one, are just "lucky". I mean I get why you do, because you need that theory to make Garrett out to be better than he actually is.

 

[Diehardblues]

When Garrett has all of his key talent on the field we’ve been contenders. Every year!

And that’s without a top 5 defense or QB.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I don't think Reid would have tolerated Jones and that's why he would probably never have coached here.

But having said that, if he had, yes, I believe Andy Reid has proven to be a much better coach than Garrett and would have absolutely been a more successful coach over these 7 years than Garrett has been. He's done that now with two different teams.

No doubt. Problem is we Cowboys fans (at least myself) don't want just playoff wins, we want SBs. And for all his success, Reid has proven he's not a SB winning coach, in fact he's been in the playoffs 13 times and has ONE NFC championship to his name. Sooner or later, in every post-season, he's choked his way out of the playoffs. 5 of the last 6 times he's lost his first game in the playoffs. Talk about Cowboys' fans being disappointed in 2 playoff wins in the last couple decades, to me getting close to the SB but failing time after time is just as disappointing, because you know that a team like KC, that's been no worse than 9-7 the last 5 years is a SB-caliber team, to fall short that often would have to be galling, to say the least.

So Reid might have been better overall, but in one sense Garrett's no worse than Reid, they both haven't "won the big one"...

 

[aria]

I am not refusing to acknowledge the circumstances Garrett faced. I just don't think they completely explain away why he's largely been unsuccessful. If we were talking about a 3 year tenure here, I might more buy into the theory that he's had some bad luck, some bad circumstances but he's now heading into Year 8. At some point, you can't just continue to chalk up each failure to bad circumstances. At some point, especially after 7 years, good coaches show up. He's yet to do that and with each passing year, the constant excuses for him lose their credibility IMO. So no, I don't think Garrett has "largely" been a victim of unfortunate circumstances (or more plainly, bad luck). Bad luck explains a lost game, a lost season............ but 7 years in? It becomes harder and harder to just assume that this guy just has nothing but bad luck that would be impossible for a coach to overcome.

And let's also note that along the way, he's gotten some decent breaks too. You pointed out earlier he was one Dez Bryant/missed call from the NFC Title game, but he was also one lucky call a week earlier from likely being another first round exit.

Go through my list again, I would agree that 7 years is a lot to normally give a coach but look at every year. I would also normally think a coach would have to deal with as much bs minus the Browns, Jets, Bills and maybe a few others I’m forgetting.

Assuming he didn’t have a QB blow the Commanders game as epically as Tony did he would have made the playoffs. Assuming Romo was healthy for the other two “win and in” playoff implicated games and he didn’t blow it like he did in the Commanders game that would have been two more playoff years for a total of 3 in addition to the other two he already has, for a grand total of 5 out of 7. I don’t think that’s really going out on a limb, that is straight up bad luck as a HC that few HC’s have had to face as much as he has. Add in Jerrah breathing down his neck about every little thing and it’s hard to see how any coach would have been more successful.

 

[aria]

Yeah and that would explain one year. He's been here 7 years. At some point, the "bad luck" argument starts to not hold much water. It's largely impossible to explain away every single failure in Garrett's tenure as just "bad luck".

And no, I don't believe guys that have been to multiple NFC title games or a coach that has been in two SB and won one, are just "lucky". I mean I get why you do, because you need that theory to make Garrett out to be better than he actually is.

As I just said, there’s much more to that one year. Did you even read my original post or skip right over it because you’re so anti Garrett? You don’t think two back up qb’s starting in a playoff type game or playing almost an entire season with two HORRENDOUS back up qb’s explains 3 more years? If that’s not bad luck than what is?

 

[Diehardblues]

Go through my list again, I would agree that 7 years is a lot to normally give a coach but look at every year. I would also normally think a coach would have to deal with as much bs minus the Browns, Jets, Bills and maybe a few others I’m forgetting.

Assuming he didn’t have a QB blow the Commanders game as epically as Tony did he would have made the playoffs. Assuming Romo was healthy for the other two “win and in” playoff implicated games and he didn’t blow it like he did in the Commanders game that would have been two more playoff years for a total of 3 in addition to the other two he already has, for a grand total of 5 out of 7. I don’t think that’s really going out on a limb, that is straight up bad luck as a HC that few HC’s have had to face as much as he has. Add in Jerrah breathing down his neck about every little thing and it’s hard to see how any coach would have been more successful.

The problem with the 7 year evaluation is we basically had to reshuffle or retool after Romo went down.

We don’t have any of the Tripletts from 2014 team which was IMO primed to make more serious runs after 2014.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

Good arguments on both sides. But I think we can all agree, whether bad luck/circumstances or just plain poor coaching, Garrett's on borrowed time. He's maybe not the most likely coach to be fired, but he's far from immune to being removed as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, and that's as it should be...

 

[Diehardblues]

Good arguments on both sides. But I think we can all agree, whether bad luck/circumstances or just plain poor coaching, Garrett's on borrowed time. He's maybe not the most likely coach to be fired, but he's far from immune to being removed as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, and that's as it should be...

I think he’s the least likely to get fired . It would take a collapse of epic proportions.
Jerry is All In on Jason!!

Fans desires don’t equate with Jerry’s.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I think he’s the least likely to get fired . It would take a collapse of epic proportions.
Jerry is All In on Jason!!

I don't know, Jerry seems to me to have limited patience, and does have a temper. I could see starting off the year with Zeke, Dak, Lawrence, etc. all on the field and going 1-4 or such and Jerry taking action.

But as the old commercial says, "only his hairdresser knows for sure"...

 

[CouchCoach]

The question is not whether there are better coaches out there than Garrett. No one has asserted he's the best HC. And while some have asserted he's the worst, that is incorrect.

Would you rather have Reid, Tomlin or any HC with a good playoff record? Of course you would but that is not the choice. The choice is Garrett or an unknown HC that fits the requirements, should he get canned.

If you are going to compare coaches that could have done better, is it not fair to do the opposite? He's not the worst we could get just like Booger is not the worst GM. When anyone takes the extreme position, it really weakens the argument.

I do not see how anyone can really discuss this subject without considering the circumstances of his employment, They are not two separate issues, they are conjoined.

 

[kevm3]

It has been nearly a decade and we've completely turned over the roster and coaches. If a player or coordinator gets the blame if we are mediocre again this year, it will be laughable. What is it, 2 playoff wins in nearly a decade long tenure as head coach?

 

[kevm3]

The question is not whether there are better coaches out there than Garrett. No one has asserted he's the best HC. And while some have asserted he's the worst, that is incorrect.

Would you rather have Reid, Tomlin or any HC with a good playoff record? Of course you would but that is not the choice. The choice is Garrett or an unknown HC that fits the requirements, should he get canned.

If you are going to compare coaches that could have done better, is it not fair to do the opposite? He's not the worst we could get just like Booger is not the worst GM. When anyone takes the extreme position, it really weakens the argument.

I do not see how anyone can really discuss this subject without considering the circumstances of his employment, They are not two separate issues, they are conjoined.

I'd rather take the unknown HC. The Eagles could have had that mentality to convince themselves to stick with Chip Kelly. They didn't, got a new HC, and are hoisting a superbowl trophy.

 

[kento40]

Something is obviously wrong when your head coach is on the hot seat list damn near every season.

 

[Diehardblues]

I'd rather take the unknown HC. The Eagles could have had that mentality to convince themselves to stick with Chip Kelly. They didn't, got a new HC, and are hoisting a superbowl trophy.

But they also had a top 5 defense and drafted the best QB in the draft. Nothing turns a team around faster than an Elite defense and QB.