percyhoward;1826492 said:
What you're missing is that there's no way of knowing that you would only need to score six more points.
Yes there is, because in the example I used, I said the defense allowed six more points. The objective is to win the game, correct?
The four more possessions aren't EXTRA possessions, they're possessions crammed into the 60 minutes that necessarily make your other possessions shorter, and thus probably less successful.
That's NOT correct.
First of all, you have to get rid of this idea that your possessions are shorter when you have more of them. You're forgetting the probability that the OPPONENT'S possessions might be shorter. Your possessions might be the same as they always are, but because your defense gets off the field quickly, you get more possessions.
Secondly, you need to get rid of the idea that if you have more possessions, you must be struggling on offense. There are way too many other factors to make that necessarily -- or even probably -- true.
Thanks for that example. We had 9 possessions in Detroit and scored 28 points. We had 14 possessions (by your way of thinking "five more chances to score points") in Buffalo and scored 25.
The offense was much better in Detroit, wasn't it? Like I said, it doesn't matter how many possessions you get, it matters what you do with those possessions.
This is the basic flaw in your thinking on this topic. More possessions doesn't mean more chances to score points.
Yes it does, obviously. Every time you get a new possession, you have a chance to score seven points.
You get 60 minutes worth of chances in every game. Your chances of scoring don't suddenly increase when you start a new possession at your own 20, as opposed to continuing a possession at your own 35.
Um, what? Let's say two offenses playing in seperate games each start a possession at their 20 with 4 minutes left in the second quarter. Here's how those four minutes transpire for each team --
TEAM A
4:00 80-yard TD pass
3:45 Kickoff, opponent returns to 35-yard line
3:35 Opponent incomplete pass
3:27 Opponent incomplete pass
3:20 Opponent incomplete pass
3:12 Opponent punt, out of bounds at Team A's 20
3:05 80-yard TD pass
2:50 Kickoff, opponent returns to 35-yard line
2:40 Opponent incomplete pass
2:31 Opponent incomplete pass
2:23 Opponent incomplete pass
2:15 Opponent punt, out of bounds at Team A's 20
2:07 80-yard TD pass
1:53 Kickoff, opponent returns to 35-yard line
1:44 Opponent incomplete pass
1:35 Opponent incomplete pass
1:26 Opponent incomplete pass
1:20 Opponent punt, out of bounds at Team A's 20
1:12 80-yard TD pass
0:58 Kickoff, opponent returns to 35-yard line
0:45 Opponent kneels for minus-1 yard
0:10 Opponent kneels for minus-1 yard
End of half
TEAM B
4:00 10-yard run
3:20 10-yard run
2:40 10-yard run
2:00 10-yard run
1:30 10-yard run
1:00 10-yard run
0:40 20-yard TD pass
0:32 Kickoff, opponent returns to 35-yard line
0:23 Opponent incomplete pass
0:15 Opponent incomplete pass
0:08 Opponent incomplete pass
0:01 Opponent incomplete pass
End of half
So, you would claim that both team's offenses had equal chances to score -- four minutes' worth, right?
But Team B scored a touchdown EVERY time it had the ball, and how many points did it score? Seven. Team A also scored a touchdown every time it had the ball, and how many points did it score? That would be 28. Team A had four possessions, which meant it had four chances to score touchdowns, which meant it could score as many as 28 offensive points (barring two-point conversions). Team B had only one possession and could not possibly score more than seven (or eight, if they went for two) offensive points during the SAME four-minute time period.
If we'd had fewer possessions in Buffalo, it means the possessions we did have wouldn't have ended so quickly. (See five interceptions).
Again, that doesn't have to be true. If Buffalo had held the ball for eight minutes on every possession (they did have one drive that lasted 8:43), we would have gotten only seven possessions without a single thing being different from our actual first seven possessions in that game.
Notice you didn't say how many points the Cowboys score with fewer possessions, just our opponents.
Because we were talking about defense, and our defensive games this season already disproved your "theory."
But since you asked ... when we've gotten 12 or more possessions (again disregarding meaningless short-time possessions at the end of halves), we've averaged 32.3 offensive points. When we've gotten 11 or fewer possessions, we've averaged 29.8 points.
More possessions doesn't always mean you WILL score more points, because that depends on what you do with those possessions. But it does mean you have more CHANCES to score points.
Also you limited it to "offensive" points, as opposed to just points scored.
That's the whole point. If you're talking about offensive effectiveness, you include only offensive points scored. If you're talking about defensive effectiveness, you include only the opponent's offensive points scored. To include anything else would defeat the purpose.
Let's say a team took 30 minutes to score 27 points on 9 possessions. If that team gets five "extra possessions," it would mean that the nature of its other possessions would have to be completely different. They would have to be shorter. Who's to say that team would have scored as many points as they did if they'd had to do it in fewer plays or in a hurry up offense?
A team doesn't maintain it's points per possession average with more possessions in a game, because that would mean that the possessions it does have are shorter. How many 3-play drives result in points, as opposed to 8-play drives?
Again, more possessions DOES NOT mean that YOUR possessions were shorter. It could mean that your opponent's possessions were shorter.
If it were really to a team's advantage to get as many possessions as possible, no team would ever huddle up, and they would go deep on every play.
Nobody ever said it was an advantage to get as many possessions as possible. (That might be true sometimes, but it might not be true sometimes.) Like I said earlier, it doesn't matter whether you play a slow-paced game or a fast-paced game, it only matters what you do with each possession.
