Actually the math would favor two points by that argument. 2*.5 =1 or 1*.86 =0.86. Points per attempt I guess is how you would break it up.
I want to know exact yard lines. A missed 39 harder is a lot different than a 33 harder. Hope we got that data soon.
Yes, plus I don't really buy the 50% conversion rate on 2 point conversions. That will likely change somewhat, and there isn't much of a sample size. This is actually a pretty complex game theory problem with a lot of variables. Like I said, I am too stupid to figure it out.
I would expect a 33 yard PAT to be much lower than the 99% it has been, however.
Also, adding the risk of giving up 2 points to the defense makes you less likely to attempt a 2 pt conversion, even if the math supports it.