PATs changed but not significantly IMO

[erod]

It is, indeed, an easy fix. And I wouldn't be totally against narrowing them, but I think you may over-estimate how many would decide to punt instead of going for it.

Adding two inner posts cures it all, with no unintended consequences period.

I would love that. It makes how good your kicker is matter even more.

But I don't think teams would punt from the 31 yard line (which is a 48 yarder). They would go for it, and that is always one of the most exciting plays in football.

 

[bracey]

What would kickers need to convert at to make a coach indifferent as to kicking the ball or going for 2? In other words what percentage of makes would bring the expected value of kicks to 0.95 points? Well 95%. As you can see we passed that mark last year.

Also when you consider that kickers will get to select where to place the ball on PATs (a luxury not always afforded to fgs where our dat comes from) its reasonable to expect that PATs will be made more frequently than equidistant field goal attempts.

Sorry your numbers are just off and oversimplified.

I expect the biggest difference in PATs vs 2 point conversions will come in bad weather. You can boot a PAT from the 2 in very bad weather. You can't necessarily make a 33 yard field goal.

But now we moved it back to the 15 yard line. I don't even know where the exact stats are, but I've read elsewhere the conversion rate for 33 yard FGs are 90%. That's a great point with kickers being able to select where they are kicking from though, so you would expect that percentage to be higher. I'm not sure it's up to 95% though. Which means the expected value of a two point conversion will probably be higher than an XP now. Also a great point on the weather.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

But now we moved it back to the 15 yard line. I don't even know where the exact stats are, but I've read elsewhere the conversion rate for 33 yard FGs are 90%. That's a great point with kickers being able to select where they are kicking from though, so you would expect that percentage to be higher. I'm not sure it's up to 95% though. Which means the expected value of a two point conversion will probably be higher than an XP now. Also a great point on the weather.

Over the last 10 years the conversion on 32-33 yard field goals was 91.6%. Over the last 3 years 94.4%. Last year 96.7%

 

[Carl23]

So, you now have to officially declare what you are going for? If so, I guess that means no surprise plays whereby you line up for a kick and instead go for two (or fumble like Tony did from the new spot and have him run for 32).

 

[Rogah]

Dont knwo if this is in this thread already but what if the QB does a dropkick from the 2 yd line and kicks it through the goalposts? Like that kick Doug Flutie mad years ago? Just put the kicker in at QB line up like you are going for two and do the drop kick

I don't know for sure, but my interpretation is that if you want to kick it, it has to be back at the 15, so that Doug Flutie play would not be allowed if you snap it at the 2, but would be allowed if snapped at the 15.

 

[Nightman]

But now we moved it back to the 15 yard line. I don't even know where the exact stats are, but I've read elsewhere the conversion rate for 33 yard FGs are 90%. That's a great point with kickers being able to select where they are kicking from though, so you would expect that percentage to be higher. I'm not sure it's up to 95% though. Which means the expected value of a two point conversion will probably be higher than an XP now. Also a great point on the weather.

I think the point you made about the 2 pt conversion being 1/3 the value of a TD is valid.

The PAT was almost automatic because TDs should be valued at the full 7 pts.

The 2 pt conversion was OK vs. an expected 7pts, but versus 6pts its too much.

It almost the same as a 50 yd FG.

 

[EMMITTnROY]

The only reason I don't really like it is because with the argument of XP vs 2 point attempts, many games might be decided by what comes after touchdowns. I don't know if I like a game's outcome being decided by "bonus" points.

 

[_sturt_]

The best fix is the one that most directly affects precisely what the league wants to affect, with zero unintended consequences or ripple effects that muddy the water.

There's nothing wrong with the rest of the game as it is.

 

[Floatyworm]

Because scoring is meant to reward the offense for moving the ball forward as far as possible -- ideally into the end zone. Making longer field goals worth more points would encourage teams in some situations to stop trying to move the ball forward and could even encourage a team to LOSE yardage on purpose in order to score more points.

No it wouldn't

 

[Floatyworm]

Conspiracy theory.....

The real reason the XP is being moved is because the distance was too short for the K ball to have any effect.....and kickers were still making the attempt.

Now watch how many get missed. I bet it's gonna be more than people think.

Plus I found it very curious the league didn't discuss "ball security" @ the recent league meetings.....since Deflategate.

it's all fixed I'm telling you.......the game is rigged

 

[Hoofbite]

Actually the math would favor two points by that argument. 2*.5 =1 or 1*.86 =0.86. Points per attempt I guess is how you would break it up.

I want to know exact yard lines. A missed 39 harder is a lot different than a 33 yarder. Hope we got that data soon.

2*0.86 = ?

 

[Hoofbite]

I don't think it really makes a big difference. FG success rates from the 15 are high enough to make the easy points the route to go.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Plus I found it very curious the league didn't discuss "ball security" @ the recent league meetings.....since Deflategate.

I thought I heard just today that was going to be addressed this week.

 

[Nightman]

I don't think it really makes a big difference. FG success rates from the 15 are high enough to make the easy points the route to go.

Add some bad weather and late game pressure and it will decide some games. How about a holding penalty or a personal foul. Now it's a 45yder.

I guess that is exactly what they want.

 

[Nightman]

I wonder if teams will go back to having 2 kickers every week for insurance.

David Buehler is available.

 

[percyhoward]

One of the proposals was simply to move the LOS for conversions to the 1-yard line. Change absolutely nothing else.

And that would have been better. You wouldn't see nearly as many kicks as you will with this new rule that backs kickers up a few yards. But there are too many teams that don't trust their OL (and/or fear that of other teams) to move it up to the 1.

 

[links18]

Dont knwo if this is in this thread already but what if the QB does a dropkick from the 2 yd line and kicks it through the goalposts? Like that kick Doug Flutie mad years ago? Just put the kicker in at QB line up like you are going for two and do the drop kick

I don't think the NFL execs thought about that. Its something Belicheck would do just to do it.....

 

[links18]

I don't know for sure, but my interpretation is that if you want to kick it, it has to be back at the 15, so that Doug Flutie play would not be allowed if you snap it at the 2, but would be allowed if snapped at the 15.

So, can you run a fake from the 15 and have it count two points if successful?

 

[Rogah]

So, can you run a fake from the 15 and have it count two points if successful?

My interpretation of the new rule is that yes you can do that. Or if it is blocked to a member of the kicking team, he can scramble (or pass) it in for 2 points.

And they have added something in that we see in the college game: The defense can block and return it for 2 points of their own. NFL rules used to be that once the defense got the ball, the play was over.

 

[Biggems]

I'm not sure I like the 15 yd. line rule......but I am so happy that the defense can now return a fumble, int., or blocked PAT for 2 pts.....I have been wanting this rule change for many years. So that takes care of one of my 3 desired rule changes. I am still waiting on the 60-man roster and 4-point 60+ yd. FG.