Playoff machine is back!

Yikes, it's really not hard to build realistic scenarios where the Cowboys go 11-5 (e.g. lose to Colts and Eagles once) and miss out on the playoffs.
 
Yikes, it's really not hard to build realistic scenarios where the Cowboys go 11-5 (e.g. lose to Colts and Eagles once) and miss out on the playoffs.

This year's Cards? That would suck.
 
After playing around with this for awhile, I have come to the conclusion that anything worse than a 4-2 record the rest of the way will result in the Cowboys missing the playoffs.
 
After playing around with this for awhile, I have come to the conclusion that anything worse than a 4-2 record the rest of the way will result in the Cowboys missing the playoffs.

not if seattle and dallas both finish 10-6
 
Kind of depressing. We can go 4-2 and still miss. We have to sweep the Eagles or go 5-1. The scenarios where we come in as a wildcard are pretty slim.
 
What I don't get is if we beat Seattle this year in head to head how do we end up a lower seed if we finish with same record ? Isn't it head to head first
 
When I went through with my picks, Dallas ends up 11-5 and out of the playoffs. Ugh. Fortunately, I'm always wrong on pick 'ems.
 
What I don't get is if we beat Seattle this year in head to head how do we end up a lower seed if we finish with same record ? Isn't it head to head first

That's what I was just about to ask.

I had a config where Seattle, Detroit, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas finished 10-6 and the playoff simulator has Seattle winning the tie-break against us.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0554361~2~400554446~1~400554411~1~400554401~1

Here's their explanation...

  • 3rd Seed - Philadelphia
    NFC East Champ (Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in division games.)
  • 5th Seed - Seattle
    Wins tie break over Detroit based on strength of victory. Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate San Francisco (Seattle wins tie break over San Francisco based on best win percentage in division games).
  • 6th Seed - San Francisco
    Wins tie break over Detroit based on strength of victory. Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games.

If you click through to their write-up of the tiebreaker criteria, head-to-head is the first determining factor if it's a tie between two teams outside of a division. But it seems like they are not applying that when it's a tie between 3 or more teams in different divisions.

If I'm reading it right, they're ignoring head-to-head until later in the tie breaking criteria. The in-division tiebreaker happens first, then wildcard.

So if Seattle is seeded ahead of San Francisco on the division tiebreaker and San Francisco is seeded ahead of Dallas in the wildcard tiebreaker, then (I think) Dallas cannot be seeded ahead of Seattle. Or they're just applying the tiebreaker incorrectly.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers
 
Wow that's scary, I got a feeling that week 1 matchup will come back to haunt us on a tie breaker.
 
Clearly, this is how things will ultimately end up.

10394612_10152883536028308_5853085407438458610_n.jpg
 

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