Playoff machine is back!

windward · Nov 22, 2014

Leadbelly said:
That's what I was just about to ask.

I had a config where Seattle, Detroit, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas finished 10-6 and the playoff simulator has Seattle winning the tie-break against us.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0554361~2~400554446~1~400554411~1~400554401~1

Here's their explanation...

If you click through to their write-up of the tiebreaker criteria, head-to-head is the first determining factor if it's a tie between two teams outside of a division. But it seems like they are not applying that when it's a tie between 3 or more teams in different divisions.

If I'm reading it right, they're ignoring head-to-head until later in the tie breaking criteria. The in-division tiebreaker happens first, then wildcard.

So if Seattle is seeded ahead of San Francisco on the division tiebreaker and San Francisco is seeded ahead of Dallas in the wildcard tiebreaker, then (I think) Dallas cannot be seeded ahead of Seattle. Or they're just applying the tiebreaker incorrectly.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers

It's incorrect as far as I know. I'm pretty sure when determining wild card seeds you apply division tiebreakers first then you take the teams left over and apply wild card tiebreaker. In a scenario where Seattl is ahead of the Niners we should be the five seed. If the Niners were ahead of Seattle we should be the 6 seed.

I also found another glitch where the Colts and Pats finished with the same record ( nobody else had that record) yet the Colts were the higher seed. So it seems a tad glitchy.

EDIT for link: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Looks like I'm right and ESPN is wrong here.

weaver21 · Nov 23, 2014

If we somehow don't win the division, gotta hope Seattle is the team we finish the same record due to the tiebreaker we have over them. If we go 11-5 and miss the playoffs because San Fran would be tied with us, that suck big time. Hopefully Detroit totally implodes and that opens up another wild card spot.

kramskoi · Nov 23, 2014

DuDa said:
After playing around with this for awhile, I have come to the conclusion that anything worse than a 4-2 record the rest of the way will result in the Cowboys missing the playoffs.

Exactly...that's why all the non-sense about saving Murray is moot. The Cowboys are facing judgement day over the next six weeks...Serious business. It looks like they need to sweep the Eagles to ensure a place in the post-season. Incredible, considering what it took last year and the fact the Garrett has never won more than 8 games in any season. He's going to have to do 3 games better in my opinion.

kramskoi · Nov 23, 2014

weaver21 said:
If we somehow don't win the division, gotta hope Seattle is the team we finish the same record due to the tiebreaker we have over them. If we go 11-5 and miss the playoffs because San Fran would be tied with us, that suck big time. Hopefully Detroit totally implodes and that opens up another wild card spot.

At 11-5, missing the playoffs would be quite catastrophic. I don't see records being quite that good by the end, but who knows, stranger things have happened. All the Cowboys can do is win...win and they are in...5-1, 6-0, they are in...likely even 4-2 should be sufficient. That said, the current projection for Dallas is 10-6 and on the outside looking in. The Washington fiasco will haunt this team until the end. Philly has to drop two division games.

kramskoi · Nov 23, 2014

dstovall5 said:
Wow that's scary, I got a feeling that week 1 matchup will come back to haunt us on a tie breaker.

The loss to Washington is the real fly in the ointment at present. It means that it is likely that Philly must drop two division games by the end. The Cowboys need a better finish over the next six than Philly.

windward · Nov 23, 2014

kramskoi said:
At 11-5, missing the playoffs would be quite catastrophic. I don't see records being quite that good by the end, but who knows, stranger things have happened. All the Cowboys can do is win...win and they are in...5-1, 6-0, they are in...likely even 4-2 should be sufficient. That said, the current projection for Dallas is 10-6 and on the outside looking in. The Washington fiasco will haunt this team until the end. Philly has to drop two division games.

I think 10-6 will get us in. Mostly because I think Seattle will lose two more games at least.

Pessimist_cowboy · Nov 23, 2014

this thing is completely full of glitches . ESPN is ******** . Use the playoff generator on yahoo. Much more accurate.

JD_KaPow · Nov 23, 2014

windward said:
It's incorrect as far as I know. I'm pretty sure when determining wild card seeds you apply division tiebreakers first then you take the teams left over and apply wild card tiebreaker. In a scenario where Seattl is ahead of the Niners we should be the five seed. If the Niners were ahead of Seattle we should be the 6 seed.

I also found another glitch where the Colts and Pats finished with the same record ( nobody else had that record) yet the Colts were the higher seed. So it seems a tad glitchy.

EDIT for link: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Looks like I'm right and ESPN is wrong here.

When there are 3- or more-way ties, a lot of times head-to-head ends up not applying.

JD_KaPow · Nov 23, 2014

I just worked up this one:

And now I need a cigarette.

LittleBoyBlue · Nov 23, 2014

Leadbelly said:
Kind of depressing. We can go 4-2 and still miss. We have to sweep the Eagles or go 5-1. The scenarios where we come in as a wildcard are pretty slim.

More depressing than Saints in playoffs with 6-8-2 record?

Lol

Red Dragon · Nov 23, 2014

Leadbelly said:
Kind of depressing. We can go 4-2 and still miss. We have to sweep the Eagles or go 5-1. The scenarios where we come in as a wildcard are pretty slim.

Yes, the NFC's a beast this year.

Red Dragon · Nov 23, 2014

jimnabby said:
I just worked up this one:

And now I need a cigarette.

Weird, it says Buffalo's 10-7. Where's the extra game from?

Leadbelly · Nov 23, 2014

jimnabby said:
I just worked up this one:

And now I need a cigarette.

Heh. Is there any chance you are head of the referees' union? If so, you can definitely make this happen.

Bullflop · Nov 23, 2014

Hey, guys -- we're in the driver's seat approaching the playoffs. The Giants are wounded and bleeding with doubts, disarray and confusion. I say jump on 'em, step on their necks, don't let up and then -- bring on Philly.

DallasInDC · Nov 23, 2014

EST_1986 said:
Most likely scenario

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0554413~2~400554448~2~400554435~1~400554409~2

amazingly you were able to get 22 teams tied with the best record in the NFL. Parity...just as the NFL wanted. Could you imagine if a scenario like this played out one year. People would go nuts trying to figure out if they made the playoffs during week 17 games.

percyhoward · Nov 23, 2014

This is how it would play out if the team with the higher points-per-drive differential won every matchup:

Red Dragon · Nov 23, 2014

That Washington loss will linger for a LONG time.

ufcrules1 · Nov 23, 2014

windward said:
I think 10-6 will get us in. Mostly because I think Seattle will lose two more games at least.

Seattle has an extremely tough upcoming schedule. They aren't the team we have to worry about, It's the 49ers we have to worry about. Look at their remaining schedule.

Red Dragon · Nov 23, 2014

ufcrules1 said:
It's the 49ers we have to worry about. Look at their remaining schedule.

Oakland , San Diego, ugh.

ufcrules1 · Nov 23, 2014

Red Dragon said:
Oakland , San Diego, ugh.

You left out Washington.

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