Great thread
The way I look at "need" in the draft is a combination of scarcity, BPA, and need plus .
When it comes to scarcity there are two principles. First is big man theory. It is the idea that there are only so many men above 6'2"+ 300+ lbs men with athletic talent and college experience in the world. If you need one then they go to the top of the list.
BPA and need I assume everyone understands but here I combine them. You create a pool of positions of need and then you pick the BPA. If there is a RB at the top of the round and a DT at the bottom as the remainder of your need group then you pick the DT. Only way this is deviated from is if the round is completely wiped out. Then you have to be creative. Trade downs, reaches, or ignoring need.
Of course this makes things difficult if you are picking at the end of the round. Your need groups are often wiped out. We are unlikely to have to deal with that this year.
Group 1: Enormous needs. Missing starters.
DT: World theory and lack of talent describe this roster even when healthy. This team has needed an athletic 315 lber in the middle of the defense for a long time.
OT: This one is tricky. On the one hand, you have world theory on the other you have Smith and Collins. The reason why i include this is because Smith has been out of service for two years now because of recurring injuries. On top of that is stories of cartilage damage leading to bone on bone with Collins. If Collins is good to go then I believe OT is still a need just not as big of one. If Collins' injuries are overblown OT goes to the bottom of the list. It is still a need just not quite so dire.
S: We don't need SS types. We need an instinctive S that can run and change direction. 40, shuttle and cone scores are key here. The tape tells the rest.
LB: We have bodies. We don't have reliable talent. LVE can play but he cannot stay on the field and Smith is soft, dumb, and selfish to detriment. We need a physical, instinctive LB with good SPARQ. He needs to be able to take on blocks and have the off the field work ethic to learn route combinations and opponents tendencies.
Group 2. Bodies present and nothing behind
CB: Brown and Diggs are starters. A top 100 pick to move Brown to the slot or play the boundary themselves is not a bad idea but you can pick up slot guys with talent in the middle of the draft because they do not need ideal size. Resigning Lewis or similar lessens this need, but 5 good corners is still the goal. World theory applies to a lesser degree. There are only so many prospects with 4.40 speed and 3.9 shuttles.
C: Biadasz is a good prospect but he has done nothing to solidify the spot. Looney is a FA. A good interior OL prospect with the head to handle the pivot is the ideal here. With McGovern in the fold backing up the starters the pick here needs to be able to start. Developmental types early are out of the question.
QB: Dalton is a FA. We need a backup. FA is likely the better option and I'd wager the one the Cowboys will take with either Dalton or elsewhere. QB in the first is not going to happen and outside the first it is typically a bust. I do look forward to the tears when Prescott is franchised.
Group 3. Starters and depth present
RB: We have Zeke and Pollard. RB is not a position where you need to draft early as they are often plug and play. We do need 3 though and a FB prospect would help a lot. McCarthy has always liked them and we don't have one.
TE: Jarwin and Schultz are locks and talented. We have the inline and the downfield threat. Still need 3 and Bell is a FA.
WR: Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup oh my. Wilson and Brown are FA but I expect one or both to be back as they won't be costly. Late round SPARQ guy is not a bad idea. World theory.
OG: Martin, Williams, and McGovern are already in the fold. Late rounder is not out of the question.
DE: DLaw, Gregory, Armstrong, and Anae. Smith needs to be our priority FA but even then our cup is full.
