Pro Football Reference can settle these debates

[northerncowboynation]

Exactly 3rd and 8 is 34% but it drops from there for 3rd and 8 "or more".

As suspected, a big fall off for all teams and QB's. Next question, how many times was Prescott forced in to 3'rd and 8 or more in comparison to other teams/QB's since the last half of 2017. And how does 2016 and the first half of 2017 compare to the last half of 2017 and 2 games in 2018. I pin some of this on the O-line. Some on QB inexperience. Actually as in all stats they can be manipulated to show whatever the statistician wants to show.

There are 3 kinds of lies... lies, damned lies and statistics (Mark Twain)

 

[jujoboys]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary&player_id_hint=Tony+Romo&player_id_select=Tony+Romo&player_id=RomoTo00&idx=players_pbp&year_min=2005&year_max=2007&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=3&yds_to_go_min=8&yds_to_go_max=20&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&type[]=2PCP&include_kneels=N&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards
That’s where you’d have to manually go into play index and create for other people. I’ll pull up Romo from 05-07 since that’s the most obvious comparison.

Update:

Romos first 28 games, compared to Daks first 34, he converted 31%

I don't think that is a fair comparison. Romo sit on the bench a couple of years before he had to start and had Bill Parcells tutoring him during that time. Also, he had Witten in his prime. He had TO who was still playing at a HOF level. And don't say Romo did not have players around him. Parcells left that team with lots of talent when he left in 2007. So much talent that Dallas went 13-3 the next year with Wade Phillips as Head Coach. Don't get me wrong. I liked Romo as our QB but there were tons of games that he threw away games with interceptions at the wrong time. I don't understand why we keep obsessing over a QB that was broken and no longer able to play the game. Times with Romo were not as rosy as we remember them.

2006 - We made the playoffs by starting out 8-4. However, we stumbled down the stretch going 1-3 to finish 9-7 and then lost the playoff game to Seattle. I won't even blame Romo for the botched FG hold but he did pass for less than 200 yards in that game.
2007 - We make the playoffs and get a first round bye. We then get beat at home by the Giants and Romo has a horrible game. 18-36 for 201 yds with 1 TD and 1 Int
2008 - We are 8-4 going into the last 4 games of the season. In position to make the playoffs. Romo helps guide us to 1-3 and we miss the playoffs at 9-7.
2009 - Finally get to the playoffs and get a playoff win. However, Romo was horrible the next week against the Vikings when we only put up 3 points. 22-35 198 yds and 0 TD and 1 int.
2010 - Romo was hurt most of the year. Kitna was our main QB
2011 - Started out 7-3 and had a great shot at the playoffs. However, we went 1-4 down the stretch and finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2012 - Started 8-6 and had a chance to make the playoffs but lost the last 2 games so we had to sit home.
2013 - Started the season 7-5 with a chance to make the playoffs. Went 1-3 down the stretch and ended up 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2014 - Made playoffs and beat Detroit with a little help from the refs. We were playing a home game and had gone 12-4 in the regular season and to squeak by with a 4 point win. Romo was not good the next week when GB bounced us from the playoffs. He threw for less than 200 yds. Although the "Dez caught the ball" play did not help and our defense could not stop GB in the 2nd half. You think we could have found a way to beat a QB playing on 1 leg.
2015 and beyond Romo was hurt.

Very few bright spots in that time frame when it came to post season victories and meaningful victories in December.

 

[Kevinicus]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary&player_id_hint=Tony+Romo&player_id_select=Tony+Romo&player_id=RomoTo00&idx=players_pbp&year_min=2005&year_max=2007&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=3&yds_to_go_min=8&yds_to_go_max=20&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&type[]=2PCP&include_kneels=N&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards
That’s where you’d have to manually go into play index and create for other people. I’ll pull up Romo from 05-07 since that’s the most obvious comparison.

Update:

Romos first 28 games, compared to Daks first 34, he converted 31%

Actually, if you eliminate the requirement of Dak Prescott in your search, then you get all the plays for the league, and the site groups the results by team at the top. That way you see how each team performed in that situation.

Between 2016 and present, in a 3rd and (8-20), Dallas gets a 1st or TD on 19.4% of passing plays. That is good for 29th in the league (Giants, Rams, Ravens are worse). The best is New England at 33.3%. Others at the top are NO, SD/LA, DET. League Average is 25.2%

Our turnover % in those situations is also 29th in the league at 4.3% (CAR, BUF, ARI are worse).

Dallas is in the bottom 10 for average number of yards gained in these situations (despite being 7th highest avg yards to go).

Worse, if you search from just 2017 forward, Dallas is dead last at 13.9% with a turnover rate of 5.6% (30th).

 

[Kevinicus]

This is why most people who study QBs use QBR:
QBR
Eli: 34.1
Dak 77.9

Nobody uses QBR

 

[northerncowboynation]

I don't think that is a fair comparison. Romo sit on the bench a couple of years before he had to start and had Bill Parcells tutoring him during that time. Also, he had Witten in his prime. He had TO who was still playing at a HOF level. And don't say Romo did not have players around him. Parcells left that team with lots of talent when he left in 2007. So much talent that Dallas went 13-3 the next year with Wade Phillips as Head Coach. Don't get me wrong. I liked Romo as our QB but there were tons of games that he threw away games with interceptions at the wrong time. I don't understand why we keep obsessing over a QB that was broken and no longer able to play the game. Times with Romo were not as rosy as we remember them.

2006 - We made the playoffs by starting out 8-4. However, we stumbled down the stretch going 1-3 to finish 9-7 and then lost the playoff game to Seattle. I won't even blame Romo for the botched FG hold but he did pass for less than 200 yards in that game.
2007 - We make the playoffs and get a first round bye. We then get beat at home by the Giants and Romo has a horrible game. 18-36 for 201 yds with 1 TD and 1 Int
2008 - We are 8-4 going into the last 4 games of the season. In position to make the playoffs. Romo helps guide us to 1-3 and we miss the playoffs at 9-7.
2009 - Finally get to the playoffs and get a playoff win. However, Romo was horrible the next week against the Vikings when we only put up 3 points. 22-35 198 yds and 0 TD and 1 int.
2010 - Romo was hurt most of the year. Kitna was our main QB
2011 - Started out 7-3 and had a great shot at the playoffs. However, we went 1-4 down the stretch and finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2012 - Started 8-6 and had a chance to make the playoffs but lost the last 2 games so we had to sit home.
2013 - Started the season 7-5 with a chance to make the playoffs. Went 1-3 down the stretch and ended up 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2014 - Made playoffs and beat Detroit with a little help from the refs. We were playing a home game and had gone 12-4 in the regular season and to squeak by with a 4 point win. Romo was not good the next week when GB bounced us from the playoffs. He threw for less than 200 yds. Although the "Dez caught the ball" play did not help and our defense could not stop GB in the 2nd half. You think we could have found a way to beat a QB playing on 1 leg.
2015 and beyond Romo was hurt.

Very few bright spots in that time frame when it came to post season victories and meaningful victories in December.

I'll add to that...
2016 13-3 first round bye, lost to the best QB in football Mr Rogers. The D cost us the game not the O
2017 9-7, had a chance to make the playoffs. Zeke suspended for 4 games and we were 5-3 before the suspension, 4-4 after. Four of those games without the starting LT and we lost all 4
2018... despite all the grim predictions we have no idea. Actually the team seems to play better when the grim reapers linger about

 

[northerncowboynation]

Nobody uses QBR

Anyone can use whatever stat or rating they want to prove their point. If QBR proves the point, it's used. Convenient isn't it

 

[northerncowboynation]

Actually, if you eliminate the requirement of Dak Prescott in your search, then you get all the plays for the league, and the site groups the results by team at the top. That way you see how each team performed in that situation.

Between 2016 and present, in a 3rd and (8-20), Dallas gets a 1st or TD on 19.4% of passing plays. That is good for 29th in the league (Giants, Rams, Ravens are worse). The best is New England at 33.3%. Others at the top are NO, SD/LA, DET. League Average is 25.2%

Our turnover % in those situations is also 29th in the league at 4.3% (CAR, BUF, ARI are worse).

Dallas is in the bottom 10 for average number of yards gained in these situations (despite being 7th highest avg yards to go).

Worse, if you search from just 2017 forward, Dallas is dead last at 13.9% with a turnover rate of 5.6% (30th).

Using 2017 numbers I assume. Why do that? Good statistics is based on sample size. The larger the sample, the more accurate the data. Try 2016, 2017 and 2018 to date. I assume the data will look a little different, maybe significantly but god forbid that the point fans are trying to make doesn't hold water over a bigger data set. I know, Prescott has lost all of his ability. It just got up and left at the half way point of last year. Maybe adding 2016 won't influence the numbers either, IDK.

 

[DogFace]

Actually, if you eliminate the requirement of Dak Prescott in your search, then you get all the plays for the league, and the site groups the results by team at the top. That way you see how each team performed in that situation.

Between 2016 and present, in a 3rd and (8-20), Dallas gets a 1st or TD on 19.4% of passing plays. That is good for 29th in the league (Giants, Rams, Ravens are worse). The best is New England at 33.3%. Others at the top are NO, SD/LA, DET. League Average is 25.2%

Our turnover % in those situations is also 29th in the league at 4.3% (CAR, BUF, ARI are worse).

Dallas is in the bottom 10 for average number of yards gained in these situations (despite being 7th highest avg yards to go).

Worse, if you search from just 2017 forward, Dallas is dead last at 13.9% with a turnover rate of 5.6% (30th).

Coaching/strategy?

 

[Ken]

Exactly 3rd and 8 is 34% but it drops from there for 3rd and 8 "or more".

This stat includes those converted by runs though.

Not sure if that would help or hurt the percentage.

 

[erod]

This is why most people who study QBs use QBR:
QBR
Eli: 34.1
Dak 77.9

QBR currently has Blake Bortles ranked 5th in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers ranked 13th.

ESPN created QBR. It's crap, too.

 

[erod]

How do you think teams come up with substitution packages and situational changes in scheme? By relying on their eyes?

The NFL has been ahead of the curve on applying analytics and statistical analysis to their play. QC coaches and analysts use this sort of data to better attack a defense or defend an offense.

But, hey, if they watched the game instead, they would be able to do this better.

Trust me, they pay less attention to stats than you'd think. They use them to point them to which film to study with their EYES. That's it.

 

[erod]

You think your single opinion carries more weight?

Only in your head.

Keep it there.

It's served me well. I will.

I called both Mahomes and Mayfield. I know what I'm looking at.

Stats are what make stupid teams draft players like Trubisky No. 1 overall.

 

[Stash]

It's served me well. I will.

I called both Mahomes and Mayfield. I know what I'm looking at.

Stats are what make stupid teams draft players like Trubisky No. 1 overall.

Stats are only "stupid" when they crush people's opinions.

 

[Plankton]

Trust me, they pay less attention to stats than you'd think. They use them to point them to which film to study with their EYES. That's it.

Yeah, I won't trust you on that.

 

[erod]

Yeah, I won't trust you on that.

LOL, if only you knew.

 

[Kevinicus]

Using 2017 numbers I assume. Why do that? Good statistics is based on sample size. The larger the sample, the more accurate the data. Try 2016, 2017 and 2018 to date. I assume the data will look a little different, maybe significantly but god forbid that the point fans are trying to make doesn't hold water over a bigger data set. I know, Prescott has lost all of his ability. It just got up and left at the half way point of last year. Maybe adding 2016 won't influence the numbers either, IDK.

As stated in my post, all of the data is 2016-Present. The only exception is the last line which eliminates 2016. That only goes to show that the trend is down...sharply.

 

[Kevinicus]

I don't think that is a fair comparison. Romo sit on the bench a couple of years before he had to start and had Bill Parcells tutoring him during that time. Also, he had Witten in his prime. He had TO who was still playing at a HOF level. And don't say Romo did not have players around him. Parcells left that team with lots of talent when he left in 2007. So much talent that Dallas went 13-3 the next year with Wade Phillips as Head Coach. Don't get me wrong. I liked Romo as our QB but there were tons of games that he threw away games with interceptions at the wrong time. I don't understand why we keep obsessing over a QB that was broken and no longer able to play the game. Times with Romo were not as rosy as we remember them.

2006 - We made the playoffs by starting out 8-4. However, we stumbled down the stretch going 1-3 to finish 9-7 and then lost the playoff game to Seattle. I won't even blame Romo for the botched FG hold but he did pass for less than 200 yards in that game.
2007 - We make the playoffs and get a first round bye. We then get beat at home by the Giants and Romo has a horrible game. 18-36 for 201 yds with 1 TD and 1 Int
2008 - We are 8-4 going into the last 4 games of the season. In position to make the playoffs. Romo helps guide us to 1-3 and we miss the playoffs at 9-7.
2009 - Finally get to the playoffs and get a playoff win. However, Romo was horrible the next week against the Vikings when we only put up 3 points. 22-35 198 yds and 0 TD and 1 int.
2010 - Romo was hurt most of the year. Kitna was our main QB
2011 - Started out 7-3 and had a great shot at the playoffs. However, we went 1-4 down the stretch and finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2012 - Started 8-6 and had a chance to make the playoffs but lost the last 2 games so we had to sit home.
2013 - Started the season 7-5 with a chance to make the playoffs. Went 1-3 down the stretch and ended up 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
2014 - Made playoffs and beat Detroit with a little help from the refs. We were playing a home game and had gone 12-4 in the regular season and to squeak by with a 4 point win. Romo was not good the next week when GB bounced us from the playoffs. He threw for less than 200 yds. Although the "Dez caught the ball" play did not help and our defense could not stop GB in the 2nd half. You think we could have found a way to beat a QB playing on 1 leg.
2015 and beyond Romo was hurt.

Very few bright spots in that time frame when it came to post season victories and meaningful victories in December.

Found the Romo hater with bad data and who doesn't understand the team game concept.

Romo was not good against GB? He had a passer rating of over 140 (143.6).

 

[Plankton]

LOL, if only you knew.

I would have to care first.

 

[jujoboys]

I'll add to that...
2016 13-3 first round bye, lost to the best QB in football Mr Rogers. The D cost us the game not the O
2017 9-7, had a chance to make the playoffs. Zeke suspended for 4 games and we were 5-3 before the suspension, 4-4 after. Four of those games without the starting LT and we lost all 4
2018... despite all the grim predictions we have no idea. Actually the team seems to play better when the grim reapers linger about

People want to gripe about the QB p

Found the Romo hater with bad data and who doesn't understand the team game concept.

Romo was not good against GB? He had a passer rating of over 140 (143.6).

According to some people on this board, throwing for under 200 yards is not a good game. My post was meant to defend Dak and not hate on Romo. Sorry if it came off that way because I have always been a fan of Romo and will always be a fan of Romo. I actually think our front office wasted Romo's career with head coaches like Phillips and Garrett and they are on their way to doing the same thing with Dak. We need a real Head Coach. Phillips wasn't the answer and Garrett is not the answer. We have had one good coach (Parcells) since our Superbowl years. I actually think if Parcells would have stayed one more year that Romo would have gotten his Superbowl ring in 2007. Romo and Dak are just scapegoats for poor coaching choices. Kellen Moore as the QB coach??? Are you freaking kidding me? We should have someone experienced molding our young QB. The only thing Garrett seems to have done right recently is hire Kris Richard.

 

[Kevinicus]

People want to gripe about the QB p


According to some people on this board, throwing for under 200 yards is not a good game. My post was meant to defend Dak and not hate on Romo. Sorry if it came off that way because I have always been a fan of Romo and will always be a fan of Romo. I actually think our front office wasted Romo's career with head coaches like Phillips and Garrett and they are on their way to doing the same thing with Dak. We need a real Head Coach. Phillips wasn't the answer and Garrett is not the answer. We have had one good coach (Parcells) since our Superbowl years. I actually think if Parcells would have stayed one more year that Romo would have gotten his Superbowl ring in 2007. Romo and Dak are just scapegoats for poor coaching choices. Kellen Moore as the QB coach??? Are you freaking kidding me? We should have someone experienced molding our young QB. The only thing Garrett seems to have done right recently is hire Kris Richard.

I think the 200 yard criticism is based on it happening repeatedly, and not with very good YPA to go with it.