Projecting Randy Gregory in 2015

[Nation]

I feel like there are a lot of folks who are excited that Dallas landed Randy Gregory at such a low cost. I am one of those people. However, I feel like there is a lot of tire-pumping around Gregory's 2015 production and I think people may need to take a step back on that front. Gregory is a highly-touted rookie, but even highly-touted rookies struggle to put together big pressure numbers in year one. And while a sack doesn't tell the entire story in terms of what kind of pressure a player brings, it gives you a close-enough look in terms of sample size.

In the table below I've taken 1st and 2nd round rushers selected in the last 3 drafts, sorted by year draft and then by year-one sacks. I also included a column with Football Outsiders Sackseer Metrics for each player, which is a score and then a projection of their 5 year sack total in the league. It seems like a 6-8 sack year one performance from Gregory will be one to get excited about.

 

[Rockport]

This is what I've been cautioning folks on since he was drafted. Rookie DE's don't normally produce. And with Hardy out for 10 games our pass rush will struggle. Hopefully not as bad as last year but it's going to be close.

 

[dwreck27]

Looking at last year's rookies getting 4... and our top DE got what 7 if I'm not mistaken?? That would mean he would only be 3 behind and would look great compared to what we dealt with last year

I have my breaks pumped but I realize how bad our production was too last year and with the pieces we've added I believe he will be able to contribute to the team

 

[BoysfanfromCanada]

Interesting. So getting more than 5 sacks would be considered somewhat of a successful rookie campaign. Hopefully with Lawrence and Hardy he won't have to face too many double teams

 

[Yakuza Rich]

FootballOutsiders' SackSEER rating is interesting. What I've found is that their high rankings don't automatically equate to success, but if you have a low rating, you're likely doomed.

Gregory possessed a high rating and I would not be surprised if he gives us good production. But, Lawrence had a low rating and I have now grown more skeptical of him.

That being said, I think Hardy's suspension gets reduced to 4-games when all is said and done. And people still act like Tyrone Crawford doesn't play on the team which is a glaring oversight in my mind.




YR

 

[Stash]

I'm of two minds on the subject. While there is no doubt that most rookie pass rushers produce low sack totals out of the gate, there are some times exceptions.

One interesting stat that gives me reason for optimism is that Charles Haley - who I think Gregory compares favorably to - came out firing as a rookie to the tune of 12 sacks.

So, consider me 'cautiously optimistic' as to Gregory's numbers. Put me down for 8!

 

[reddyuta]

I can see him getting 10 sacks if he stays healthy which at his weight is not a given we need to limit his snaps .

 

[tyke1doe]

I'm of two minds on the subject. While there is no doubt that most rookie pass rushers produce low sack totals out of the gate, there are some times exceptions.

One interesting stat that gives me reason for optimism is that Charles Haley - who I think Gregory compares favorably to - came out firing as a rookie to the tune of 12 sacks.

So, consider me 'cautiously optimistic' as to Gregory's numbers. Put me down for 8!

I'm with you. I think RG is going to have a huge impact on our pass rush defense. I envision a Javon Kearse-like impact.

 

[Stash]

I'm with you. I think RG is going to have a huge impact on our pass rush defense. I envision a Javon Kearse-like impact.

I like the way you think! That would be awesome!

 

[StarBoyz83]

I think he will have a good year. 5-8 sacks. I just think he will get suspended for not passing a ua at the combine. That's a dirty nfl test.

 

[tyke1doe]

I can see him getting 10 sacks if he stays healthy which at his weight is not a given we need to limit his snaps .

For a pass rusher, I think his weight isn't that much of an issue. He has that quick speed/step and an arsenal of rush moves that he should be okay. Weight becomes more of an issue in the running game or when offensive linemen get their hands on you. But if you're quick, it should be no problem. It didn't seem to bother Lawrence Taylor much. He was undersized as a rusher, but no one could stop him.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

Nick Perry 90.1 -

 

[EST_1986]

I think he will have a good year. 5-8 sacks. I just think he will get suspended for not passing a ua at the combine. That's a dirty nfl test.

He won't get suspended for that one but he's now in the system and tested more often so will be if he fails again

 

[Aven8]

I think he will be a pass rushing specialist early on. But I see him making big plays, not only sacks, but tipped passes, blocked kicks, Int's maybe, and strip fumbles. That's what he did at N and I think he will have the same impact here.

Aldon Smith like rookie year would work also!

 

[AzorAhai]

I think he will have a good year. 5-8 sacks. I just think he will get suspended for not passing a ua at the combine. That's a dirty nfl test.

He's in stage 1 and would need to fail 3 more tests to be suspended 4 games. He's not getting suspended for that.

 

[waving monkey]

upthread someone posted 5-8 sacks and thats a good season. I'll buy that
the pressures will be of interest as the other rush men's numbers
one thing I'll venture is we'll beat last years sacks by ten maybe better.

 

[Hoov]

I'm of two minds on the subject. While there is no doubt that most rookie pass rushers produce low sack totals out of the gate, there are some times exceptions.

One interesting stat that gives me reason for optimism is that Charles Haley - who I think Gregory compares favorably to - came out firing as a rookie to the tune of 12 sacks.

So, consider me 'cautiously optimistic' as to Gregory's numbers. Put me down for 8!

You would also have to look at the quality of the teams those rookies played for - It also helps if you play with a lead most of the time forcing the other team to pass more - which is a likely situation for this year.

So i am optimistic as well

 

[DallasEast]

I'm with you. I think RG is going to have a huge impact on our pass rush defense. I envision a Javon Kearse-like impact.

I think Philadelphia will be dreading Gregory the most if he performs as well as The Freak out the gate.

 

[Zimmy Lives]

I think he will have a good year. 5-8 sacks. I just think he will get suspended for not passing a ua at the combine. That's a dirty nfl test.

I think it would be great if he gets 7!

 

[Nation]

Nick Perry 90.1 -

He looked like it against us in the playoffs unfortunately