Projecting Randy Gregory in 2015

[StarBoyz83]

He's in stage 1 and would need to fail 3 more tests to be suspended 4 games. He's not getting suspended for that.

Oh I thought it was always a suspension. Didn't bell just get 2 games for a 2nd dirty though?

 

[Rockport]

FootballOutsiders' SackSEER rating is interesting. What I've found is that their high rankings don't automatically equate to success, but if you have a low rating, you're likely doomed.

Gregory possessed a high rating and I would not be surprised if he gives us good production. But, Lawrence had a low rating and I have now grown more skeptical of him.

That being said, I think Hardy's suspension gets reduced to 4-games when all is said and done. And people still act like Tyrone Crawford doesn't play on the team which is a glaring oversight in my mind.


YR

No ones forgotten about Crawford but he only had 3 sacks last year.

 

[Nation]

Oh I thought it was always a suspension. Didn't bell just get 2 games for a 2nd dirty though?

Believe that was under an old policy, and because it was a DUI

 

[dallasdave]

Gregory gets 12 sacks this year

 

[Jstopper]

I feel like there are a lot of folks who are excited that Dallas landed Randy Gregory at such a low cost. I am one of those people. However, I feel like there is a lot of tire-pumping around Gregory's 2015 production and I think people may need to take a step back on that front. Gregory is a highly-touted rookie, but even highly-touted rookies struggle to put together big pressure numbers in year one. And while a sack doesn't tell the entire story in terms of what kind of pressure a player brings, it gives you a close-enough look in terms of sample size.

In the table below I've taken 1st and 2nd round rushers selected in the last 3 drafts, sorted by year draft and then by year-one sacks. I also included a column with Football Outsiders Sackseer Metrics for each player, which is a score and then a projection of their 5 year sack total in the league. It seems like a 6-8 sack year one performance from Gregory will be one to get excited about.

There are exceptions though. Aldon Smith was a terror his rookie year. 14 sacks

 

[TheKey]

Didn't Lawrence have two sacks in the playoffs?

 

[big dog cowboy]

I'm of two minds on the subject. While there is no doubt that most rookie pass rushers produce low sack totals out of the gate, there are some times exceptions.

One interesting stat that gives me reason for optimism is that Charles Haley - who I think Gregory compares favorably to - came out firing as a rookie to the tune of 12 sacks.

So, consider me 'cautiously optimistic' as to Gregory's numbers. Put me down for 8!

Spot on Stash. Give me 7-8.

Regarding our pass rush in general, every team on our schedule should be put on notice - we're coming and we mean business.

 

[tyke1doe]

There are exceptions though. Aldon Smith was a terror his rookie year. 14 sacks

Rookie Player ... Team ... Sacks

Randy Gregory, Dallas, 2015, 15.5

Jevon Kearse, Tennessee, 1999, 14.5

Aldon Smith, San Francisco, 2011 14.0

Dwight Freeny, Indianapolis, 2002 13.0

Leslie O'Neal, San Diego, 1986 12.5


Simeon Rice, Arizona, 1996 12.5

 

[Yakuza Rich]

No ones forgotten about Crawford but he only had 3 sacks last year.

And sacks hardly tell the entire story.





YR

 

[Section446]

If he can be a situational guy that puts up 5-7 sacks, that'd be fantastic. I don't view him as a guy who'll be ready to start at any point this season, but obviously has a bright future.

 

[Section446]

And sacks hardly tell the entire story.





YR

As is usually the case, Crawford was one of the better 3-tech's in the league last year.

 

[Nightman]

I think Gregory gets turned loose on passing downs. He will have one job, to get to the passer.

I see him having a lot of success in that somewhat limited role. Maybe 8 sacks.

 

[poost]

Pump the brakes? Let's smash the gas pedal! He breaks the sack record with 28 sacks!

 

[theogt]

I don't recall a better passrusher coming out of college for the past 10 years. Mario Williams, JJ Watt, Vernon Gholston and Jadaveon Clowney all may have been "better prospects" for one reason or another, but I've never seen someone come out of college looking so polished and natural at the job of getting past blockers as much as Randy Gregory does. If he were to start all 16 games, I'd be surprised by less than 8 sacks to be honest. I think the only thing that will prevent him from that is the fact that we will rotate so heavily with all the guys we have at DE.

 

[AdamJT13]

Three years isn't much of a sample size to look at, and Randy Gregory isn't anything like a lot of those guys in physique or playing style. He's most often compared to Aldon Smith, Von Miller and Jevon Kearse, and all of them had double-digit sacks as rookies. Of course, that doesn't mean we should expect that from Gregory -- a lot will depend on how much we force our opponents into obvious passing situations and whether we have any other pass-rushing threats. But we also shouldn't expect only a few sacks just because none of last year's rookies drafted in the first two rounds had more than four (some guys drafted later did have more than four).

 

[Rockport]

And sacks hardly tell the entire story.





YR

Considering the Cowboys ranked around 28th last year and couldn't stop a one legged Rogers they do.

 

[Bullflop]

It's tough on rookies to make the pro adjustment at DE, even for those who have been "elite" in the college ranks. I'm really trying to avoid getting too excited about Gregory, knowing how many rookies experience tough sledding in their initial season. Still, his skills do seem exceptional and an impressive year one wouldn't be overly surprising. Let's just say with all things considered, it's great knowing how much we got for so meager a commitment.

 

[JBell]

Three years isn't much of a sample size to look at, and Randy Gregory isn't anything like a lot of those guys in physique or playing style. He's most often compared to Aldon Smith, Von Miller and Jevon Kearse, and all of them had double-digit sacks as rookies. Of course, that doesn't mean we should expect that from Gregory -- a lot will depend on how much we force our opponents into obvious passing situations and whether we have any other pass-rushing threats. But we also shouldn't expect only a few sacks just because none of last year's rookies drafted in the first two rounds had more than four (some guys drafted later did have more than four).

Yeah, really interesting choice of a sample size. I understand trying to get people to temper their expectations, but OP isn't fooling anyone by using a three year sample size because four years would have included the 2011 draft that had Von Miller and Aldon Smith. And if you make the sample size go back to '09 you'll see double digit sack seasons by a few more rookie edge rushers (Orakpo and Clay Matthews).

And let's be real, Gregory isn't your typical 2nd rounder. So comparing 2nd round talents from the last three drafts to Gregory doesn't have any value to me.

 

[lostar2009]

This is what I've been cautioning folks on since he was drafted. Rookie DE's don't normally produce. And with Hardy out for 10 games our pass rush will struggle. Hopefully not as bad as last year but it's going to be close.

I agree but luckily Lawrence will be in his second year and he came on nicely towards the end. I will also say Randy is more talented than anyone on the list except for Clowney But that is only if your going off Clowney best season. I believe Randy can give us a 8 sack seaon.

 

[TrailBlazer]

There are exceptions though. Aldon Smith was a terror his rookie year. 14 sacks

Smith was a 3-4 OLB. Gregory isnt. Not comparable.